BY ORDER OF THE AIR FORCE PAMPHLET 91-215 SECRETARY ...

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A2.A.6. <strong>THE</strong> SCENARIO PROCESS TOOL A2.A.6.1. FORMAL NAME. The scenario process tool A2.A.6.2. ALTERNATIVE NAMES. The mental movie tool. A2.A.6.3. PURPOSE. The scenario process tool is a time tested procedure to identify hazards by visualizing them. It is designed to capture the intuitive and experiential expertise of personnel involved in planning or executing an operation in a somewhat systematic and structured way. In other words, it adds increased rigor to the intuitive and experiential processes of traditional risk management. It is especially useful in connecting various individual hazards into scenarios that might actually occur. It is also used to visualize the worst credible outcome of one or more related hazards and is therefore an important contributor to the risk assessment process. A2.A.6.4. APPLICATION. Because of its simplicity and power to identify hazards, the scenario process tool should be used in most hazard identification applications to include some time critical applications. In the time critical mode, one of the few practical tools is the scenario process tool in which the user quickly forms a “mental movie” of the flow of events immediately ahead and the associated potential hazards. A2.A.6.5. METHOD. The user of the scenario process tool attempts to literally visualize the flow of events in an operation. This is often described as constructing a “mental movie”. It is often effective to literally close the eyes, relax and let the images flow. Usually the best procedure is to use the flow of events established in the operations analysis. An effective tool is to actually visualize the flow of events twice. The first time see the events as they are intended to flow. The next time inject “Murphy” at every possible event. As hazards are visualized, they are recorded for further action. Some good guidelines for the development of scenarios are as follows: A2.A.6.5.1. Limit them to 60 words or less. A2.A.6.5.2. Don’t get tied up in grammatical excellence (in fact they don’t have to be recorded at all). A2.A.6.5.3. Use historical experience but sanitize to avoid embarrassing anyone. A2.A.6.5.4. Encourage imagination (this helps identify risks that have not been previously encountered). A2.A.6.5.5. Carry scenarios to the worst credible event. A2.A.6.6. RESOURCES. The key resource for the scenario process tool is the operations analysis. It provides the script for the flow of events that will be visualized. Because of its simplicity, a key resource often available for the scenario process tool are the operational personnel leading or actually performing the mission. This tool is often entertaining, dynamic and motivating for even the most junior personnel in the organization. A2.A.6.7. COMMENTS. A special value of the scenario process tool is its ability to link two or more individual hazards developed using other tools into a mission relevant scenario. A2.A.6.8. EXAMPLES. Following are two examples (Figures A2.8 and A2.9) of how the scenario process tool might be used in an operational situation. 46
Figure A2.8. Example Deployment Scenario. FROM DEPLOYMENT EXAMPLE: During a security drill a vehicle carrying 10 personnel from the rapid reaction force turns a corner at high speed and plows into a troop formation formed in the roadway (lack of space anywhere else). One person is killed and 15 are injured. Figure A2.9. Example Machine Movement Scenario. FROM MACHINE MOVEMENT EXAMPLE: As the machine was being jackedup to permit placement of the forklift, the fitting that was the lift point on the machine broke. The machine tilted in that direction and fell over striking the nearby wall. This in turn broke a fuel gas line in the wall. The gas was turned off as a precaution, but the blow to the metal line caused the valve to which it was attached to break, releasing gas into the atmosphere. The gas quickly reached the motor of a nearby fan (not explosion proof) and a small explosion followed. Several personnel were badly burned and that entire section of the shop was badly damaged. The shop was out of action for 3 weeks. 47
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SECTION A4.B. THE RISK CONTROL OPTI
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Attachment 7 SUPERVISE AND REVIEW D
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