BY ORDER OF THE AIR FORCE PAMPHLET 91-215 SECRETARY ...

A2.A.6. THE SCENARIO PROCESS TOOL
A2.A.6.1. FORMAL NAME. The scenario process tool
A2.A.6.2. ALTERNATIVE NAMES. The mental movie tool.
A2.A.6.3. PURPOSE. The scenario process tool is a time tested procedure to identify hazards by
visualizing them. It is designed to capture the intuitive and experiential expertise of personnel involved in
planning or executing an operation in a somewhat systematic and structured way. In other words, it adds
increased rigor to the intuitive and experiential processes of traditional risk management. It is especially
useful in connecting various individual hazards into scenarios that might actually occur. It is also used to
visualize the worst credible outcome of one or more related hazards and is therefore an important
contributor to the risk assessment process.
A2.A.6.4. APPLICATION. Because of its simplicity and power to identify hazards, the scenario process
tool should be used in most hazard identification applications to include some time critical applications. In
the time critical mode, one of the few practical tools is the scenario process tool in which the user quickly
forms a “mental movie” of the flow of events immediately ahead and the associated potential hazards.
A2.A.6.5. METHOD. The user of the scenario process tool attempts to literally visualize the flow of
events in an operation. This is often described as constructing a “mental movie”. It is often effective to
literally close the eyes, relax and let the images flow. Usually the best procedure is to use the flow of
events established in the operations analysis. An effective tool is to actually visualize the flow of events
twice. The first time see the events as they are intended to flow. The next time inject “Murphy” at every
possible event. As hazards are visualized, they are recorded for further action. Some good guidelines for
the development of scenarios are as follows:
A2.A.6.5.1. Limit them to 60 words or less.
A2.A.6.5.2. Don’t get tied up in grammatical excellence (in fact they don’t have to be recorded at all).
A2.A.6.5.3. Use historical experience but sanitize to avoid embarrassing anyone.
A2.A.6.5.4. Encourage imagination (this helps identify risks that have not been previously encountered).
A2.A.6.5.5. Carry scenarios to the worst credible event.
A2.A.6.6. RESOURCES. The key resource for the scenario process tool is the operations analysis. It
provides the script for the flow of events that will be visualized. Because of its simplicity, a key resource
often available for the scenario process tool are the operational personnel leading or actually performing
the mission. This tool is often entertaining, dynamic and motivating for even the most junior personnel in
the organization.
A2.A.6.7. COMMENTS. A special value of the scenario process tool is its ability to link two or more
individual hazards developed using other tools into a mission relevant scenario.
A2.A.6.8. EXAMPLES. Following are two examples (Figures A2.8 and A2.9) of how the scenario
process tool might be used in an operational situation.
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