BY ORDER OF THE AIR FORCE PAMPHLET 91-215 SECRETARY ...

A2.A.5. THE WHAT IF TOOL
A2.A.5.1. FORMAL NAME. The “what if” tool
A2.A.5.2. ALTERNATIVE NAMES. None.
A2.A.5.3. PURPOSE. The what if tool is one of the most powerful hazard ID tools. As in the case of the
scenario process tool, it is designed to add structure to the intuitive and experiential expertise of
operational personnel. The what if tool is especially effective in capturing hazard data about failure modes.
It is somewhat more structured and rigorous than the PHA. Because of its ease of use, it is probably the
single most practical and effective tool for use by operational personnel.
A2.A.5.4. APPLICATION. Because of its ease of use and effectiveness in identifying hazards, the what if
tool should be used in most hazard identification applications to include many time critical applications. A
classic use of the what if tool is as the first tool used after the operations analysis and the PHA. For
example, the PHA reveals an area of hazard that needs additional investigation. Probably the best single
tool to further investigate that area will be the what if tool. The user will home-in on the particular area of
concern, add detail to the operations analysis in this area and then use the what if procedure to really dig
out the hazards.
A2.A.5.5. METHOD.
A2.A.5.5.1. Ensure participants have a thorough knowledge of the anticipated flow of the operation.
A2.A.5.5.2. Visualize the expected flow of events in time sequence from the beginning to the end of the
operation.
A2.A.5.5.3. Select a segment of the operation on which to focus.
A2.A.5.5.4. Visualize the selected segment with "Murphy" injected. Make a conscious effort to visualize
failures. Ask "what if various failures occurred or problems arose”?
A2.A.5.5.5. Add potential failures and their causes to your hazard list and assess them based on
probability and severity.
A2.A.5.5.6. The "What-If" analysis can be expanded to further explore the hazards in an operation by
using scenario thinking. To use scenario thinking, develop short scenarios which reflect the worst credible
outcome from compound effects of multiple hazards in the operation.
A2.A.5.5.7. Follow the guidelines below in writing scenarios:
A2.A.5.5.7.1. Target length is 5 or 6 sentences, 60 words
A2.A.5.5.7.2. Don't dwell on grammatical details
A2.A.5.5.7.3. Include elements of man, machine, media, management
A2.A.5.5.7.4. Start with history but sanitize
A2.A.5.5.7.5. Encourage imagination and intuition
A2.A.5.5.7.6. Carry the scenario to the worst credible outcome
A2.A.5.5.7.7. Use a single person or group to edit
A2.A.5.6. RESOURCES. A key resource for the what if tool is the operations analysis. It may be
desirable to add detail to the operations analysis in the area to be targeted by the what if analysis.
However, in most cases the operations analysis can be used as is. The what if tool is specifically designed
to be used by personnel actually involved in an operation. Therefore, the most critical what if resource is
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