BY ORDER OF THE AIR FORCE PAMPHLET 91-215 SECRETARY ...

26. Action 4—Complete Risk Assessment. Combine severity and probability estimates to form a risk
assessment for each hazard. By combining the probability of occurrence with severity, a matrix is created
where intersecting rows and columns define a Risk Assessment Matrix. The Risk Assessment Matrix
forms the basis for judging both the acceptability of a risk and the management level at which the decision
on acceptability will be made. The matrix may also be used to prioritize resources to resolve risks due to
hazards or to standardize hazard notification or response actions. Severity, probability, and risk
assessment should be recorded to serve as a record of the analysis for future use. Existing databases, Risk
Assessment Matrix, or a panel of personnel experienced with the mission and hazards can be used to help
complete the risk assessment. Figure 8 is an example of a matrix.
Figure 8. Sample Risk Assessment Matrix.
S
E
V
E
R
I
T
Y
Catastrophic
Critical
Moderate
Negligible
I
II
III
IV
Probability
Frequent Likely Occasional Seldom Unlikely
A B C D E
Extremely
High High
Medium
Risk Levels
27. Assessment Pitfalls. The following are some analytical pitfalls that should be avoided in the
assessment:
27.1. Overoptimism: “It can’t happen to us. We’re already doing it.” This pitfall results from not being
totally honest and not looking for root causes of risk.
27.2. Misrepresentation: Individual perspectives may distort data. This can be deliberate or unconscious.
27.3. Alarmism: “The sky’s falling” approach, or “worst case” estimates are used regardless of their
remote possibility.
27.4. Indiscrimination: All data is given equal weight.
27.5. Prejudice: Subjectivity and/or hidden agendas are used, rather than facts.
27.6. Inaccuracy: Bad or misunderstood data nullifies accurate risk assessment.
27.6.1. It is difficult to assign a numerical value to human behavior.
27.6.2. Numbers may oversimplify real life situations.
27.6.3. It may be difficult to get enough applicable data, which could force inaccurate estimates.
27.6.4. Oftentimes numbers take the place of reasoned judgment.
27.6.5. Risk can be unrealistically traded off against benefit by relying solely on numbers
28. The Output of the Risk Assessment Step. The outcome of the risk assessment process is a list of
risks developed from the output of the hazard identification process. The first risk is the most serious
threat to the mission, the last is the least serious risk of any consequence (see Figure 9). Each risk is either
20
Low