BY ORDER OF THE AIR FORCE PAMPHLET 91-215 SECRETARY ...

Section D—Step 2—Assess Risk
21. Introduction. Risk assessment is the process which associates “hazards” with “risks”. When we
know the various impacts a hazard may have on our mission and an estimate of how likely it is to occur we
can now call the hazard a risk. The second aspect of risk assessment is the ranking of risks into a priority
order. Figure 7 depicts the actions necessary to complete this step. The number one risk is the one with
the greatest potential impact on the command mission. The last risk is the least risky issue that still may
deserve some attention and possible risk control action. Keep in mind that this priority listing is intended to
be used as a guide to the relative priority of the risks involved and not necessarily an absolute order to be
followed. There may be, as an example, something that is not a terribly significant risk that is extremely
simple to control.
Figure 7. Step 2—Assess the Risk Actions.
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ACTION 1:
ASSESS HAZARD
EXPOSURE
22. The Components of Risk. There are three key aspects of risk. Probability is the estimate of the
likelihood that a hazard will cause a loss. Some hazards produce losses frequently, others almost never do.
Severity is the estimate of the extent of loss that is likely. The third key aspect is exposure, which is the
number of personnel or resources affected by a given event or, over time, by repeated events. To place
hazards in rank order we must make the best possible estimate of the probability, severity, and exposure of
a risk compared to the other risks that have been detected. A complete description of this concept,
including an application of the risk assessment matrix and an example of a risk totem pole, are at
Attachment 3.
23. Action 1—Assess Hazard Exposure. Surveys, inspections, observations, and mapping tool can help
determine the level of exposure to the hazard and record it. This can be expressed in terms of time,
proximity, volume, or repetition. Does it happen often, or near personnel or equipment? Does the event
involve a lot of people or equipment? Repeated exposure to a hazard increases the probability of a mishap
occurring. Understanding the exposure level can aid in determining the severity or the probability of the
event. Additionally, it may serve as a guide for devising control measures to limit exposure.
24. Action 2—Assess Hazard Severity. Determine the severity of the hazard in terms of its potential
impact on the people, equipment, or mission. Cause and effect diagrams, scenarios and “What-If” analysis
are some of the best tools for assessing the hazard severity. Severity assessment should be based upon the
worst possible outcome that can reasonably be expected. Severity categories are defined to provide a
qualitative measure of the worst credible mishap resulting from personnel error, environmental conditions;
design inadequacies; procedural deficiencies; or system, subsystem, or component failure or malfunction.
The following severity categories provide guidance to a wide variety of missions and systems.
24.1. Severity Categories
ACTIONS FOR STEP 2—ASSESS THE RISK
ACTION 2:
ASSESS HAZARD
SEVERITY
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ACTION 3:
ASSESS
PROBABILITY
ACTION 4:
COMPLETE
ASSESSMENT