National Spatial Strategy For Ireland 2002 - 2020 - Full ... - Kildare.ie

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Taking the NSS economic growth type projections of a national population of around 5 million by 2020, the regional
breakdown was estimated as follows
• around 2.2 million in the Greater Dublin Area
• around 740,000 in the South West Region of which up to 450,000 could live in Cork city and its hinterland
• around 460,000 in the Border Region
• around 460,000 in the West Region of which almost 200,000 could be located in Galway city and its hinterland
• around 480,000 in the South East Region of which 164,000 could be located in Waterford city and its hinterland
• around 410,000 in the Mid West Region of which 280,000 could be located in Limerick city and its hinterland
• around 280,000 in the Midlands Region.
The foregoing projections are illustrative in nature and depend on assumptions which may or may not remain valid. As
the preliminary results of the 2002 Census have shown in relation to certain regions, the actual population level
reached can vary considerably from that previously projected. However, for the purposes of this Strategy, the main
conclusion to be drawn from the projections is that implementation of the NSS will yield higher regional population
growth than would be the case without a spatial policy framework.
Not all of the population growth will be contained in the main cities. There is potential for growth in other areas,
provided this is supported by the promotion of an urban structure of appropriate scale and strength. Growth prospects
for rural areas will be assisted by the degree to which settlements, including villages, smaller and larger towns can be
strengthened to accommodate, sustain and drive various types and levels of development including residential,
employment and commercial activities.
2.5 Household Formation and Housing Demand
Access to high quality and affordable housing in the right locations is an important spatial planning issue because of
its quality of life, economic and environmental dimensions. Tracking trends in the rate of household formation provides
indications of likely levels of housing demand into the future. Identifying future levels of housing demand also ensures
that preparations can be made for the services and amenities needed to support future housing development. The
issue of future housing demand is therefore an important one for the NSS.
In 2000, it was estimated that the number of households in the State was about 1.25 million. Taking the NSS current
trends based projections referred to in Section 2.4.2, the number of households in 2020 is estimated at about 1.9
million, whereas on the basis of the NSS economic growth based projections the estimate is about 2.1 million
households in the State by 2020.
Progress in achieving a better balance of regional development will give rise to greater increases in population in
different parts of the country than would occur under existing trends. Such progress will also lead to additional
demands for housing in different areas. These potential additional demands need to be considered carefully from a
planning perspective.
The variables involved in setting out future housing requirements for different areas over the 20 years covered by the
NSS make precise predictions difficult. However, there are a number of key trends that will influence future demand for
housing.
In 2001 there were approximately 340 houses for every one thousand people in Ireland. In 2000 the EU average stood
at around 450 houses per one thousand people. Housing provision in Ireland has some way to go therefore, to
converge with EU standards.
Record levels of housing output have been achieved in Ireland over the past 7 years. These levels of output must be
viewed against a historically small housing stock in relation to population. The proportion of houses being built in
Ireland relative to our population is the highest in the EU at 13.5 houses per thousand persons.
The National Spatial Strategy | People, Places and Potential