National Spatial Strategy For Ireland 2002 - 2020 - Full ... - Kildare.ie

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26 Many of these projections and trends indicate that the geographical or spatial distribution of future economic progress could continue to be unbalanced. The consequences of this — for example even greater congestion in some places — could adversely affect our international competitiveness by lessening the attractiveness of areas for business and workers. 2.4 Current and Future Population – Main Issues The key issues relating to Ireland’s current and future population distribution for the NSS are • The role of population growth in achieving balanced regional development • The levels of overall national population that need to be planned for • The implications of recent population trends for the approach to be taken by the NSS • The population share of the Greater Dublin Area • The degree to which current population trends can be altered. 2.4.1 Population Growth and Balanced Regional Development A strong economy — nationally, regionally and locally — establishes conditions that help to sustain and expand employment and population levels. A growing population is in turn a key asset that can be harnessed in working towards balanced regional development. The 2002 census preliminary report shows population growth being driven by the natural rate of increase, but also by significant net migration into Ireland. Net migration has been driven by economic growth, and the consequent demands for labour and skills in a rapidly developing economy. Balanced regional development will require the creation of the dynamic and competitive economic and other conditions. These conditions will support the ability of areas and places to retain their existing population and cater for increasing population. Balanced regional development also depends on building up a strong urban structure to give areas the economic strength to support a more balanced distribution of population growth across the country. This Strategy addresses the strategic planning necessary to support more even patterns of population growth. It does not envisage or propose large-scale movements of population from one part of the country to another. Good spatial planning at regional and local levels is also essential to ensure that where population growth occurs, the consequent needs and demands in terms of affordable and good quality housing, ancillary social facilities, efficient transport and proper amenities are effectively responded to. 2.4.2 Planning for Ireland’s Future Population In 2002, the population of the State was approximately 3.9 million people. In projecting population levels forward over the next 20 years, assumptions regarding demographic (fertility rates, mortality rates and migration) trends 6 must be made, while the potential effects of economic performance also have to be taken into account. Using assumptions in this regard, two broad types of projections were prepared as part of the initial research for the NSS. The first type of projections — "current trends scenarios" — were based on indications of likely demographic trends. The second type — "economic growth scenarios" — were based on expansion in employment levels over the period of the Strategy. 6 The NSS projections were based on the 1996 census. See also Appendix 11 regarding the assumptions and methodology used in making projections. The National Spatial Strategy | People, Places and Potential
The projections based on current demographic trends indicated that the population of the State could rise to 4.4 million over the next 20 years. See Table 2.4.2 (a) below. Table 2.4.2a Population projections based on current trends Year 1996 2000 2010 2015 2020 Population 3,626,087 3,787,000 4,157,000 4,286,000 4,391,000 The results in table 2.4.2 (a) were derived from assumed demographic trends in mortality, fertility and international migration. The assumptions made in relation to mortality, fertility and international migration are summarised in Appendix 11. There are indications that recent growth in the population supported by rapid economic growth has proven to be somewhat faster than was anticipated by the projections based on current demographic trends. If, therefore, the economic and demographic momentum established since 1996 is sustained in the long-term, the value of basing this strategic planning framework solely on population projections based on current demographic trends would be questionable. The economic growth based projections required an indication of the possible effects on population of sustained economic and employment growth. Accordingly, the employment forecasts for basic manufacturing and traded services to the year 2015, set out in the ESRI Medium Term Review 1999-2005, with further extrapolation of these forecasts to the year 2020, were built into the NSS population projection model. As shown in table 2.4.2 (b) below, this produced significantly higher results than the projections based solely on current demographic trends. Population projections based on strong Table 2.4.2b economic growth Year 1996 2000 2010 2015 2020 Population 3,626,087 3,787,000 4,508,000 4,766,000 5,013,000 However, current economic conditions which have shown a sharp reduction in recent high rates of economic growth, suggest that the high growth population scenarios set out in the above table must be approached with caution. Looking forward over the next 20 years and bearing in mind the continuing impact of the momentum created by Ireland’s strongly growing economy of recent years, it is likely, as the above projections show, that Ireland’s national population over the next 20 years will rise to at least 4.4 million. There is a possibility that it could rise significantly beyond that level, subject to an upper limit of around 5 million. However, it would appear at present, in the light of current economic conditions, that the lower projection of 4.4 million is the more likely one. This Strategy is not about setting a population target as such for 2020. However, it is important to be satisfied that this 20-year spatial framework is sufficiently robust to deal with population growth that could vary depending on demographic and economic/employment growth trends. The spatial framework set out under this Strategy has the capacity to cater for Ireland’s population whether it grows over the next 20 years to the lower projection of 4.4 or to the higher figure of 5 million. Estimates of regional populations and household distributions for 2020 are given later in this section of the Strategy on the basis of both types of population projections carried out in preparing the NSS. One of the primary means of implementing the NSS will be through the making of regional planning guidelines under section 21 of the Planning and Development Act, 2000. These guidelines cover a period of 12 years and in general will The National Spatial Strategy | People, Places and Potential 27
Page 1 and 2: National Spatial Strategy for Irela
Page 3: MESSAGE FROM THE TAOISEACH Ireland
Page 6 and 7: Table of Contents Section 1: What i
Page 9 and 10: What is the National Spatial Strate
Page 11 and 12: The overall approach taken by the N
Page 13 and 14: • promote certain strategically l
Page 15 and 16: Addressing these contrasts is a key
Page 17 and 18: Ireland’s Changing Spatial Struct
Page 19 and 20: Agriculture will continue to be an
Page 21 and 22: Figure 2.1 Ireland - International
Page 23 and 24: Figure 2.2 Cities and Towns on the
Page 25: • A substantial amount of new hou
Page 29 and 30: (2) Towns with populations in exces
Page 31 and 32: However over time, as the process o
Page 33 and 34: Housing output reached a new record
Page 35 and 36: The availability of a critical mass
Page 37 and 38: Ireland - Future Spatial Structure
Page 39 and 40: This will lead to • a strong and
Page 41 and 42: Substantial progress towards balanc
Page 43 and 44: Ensure the effective use of the exi
Page 45 and 46: In the South East, there is substan
Page 47 and 48: Factors such as • the proposed de
Page 49 and 50: 3.4 Gateways and Hubs - Overall App
Page 51 and 52: Looking to the period to 2020 and b
Page 53 and 54: 3.5.4 Types of Rural Areas Box 3.1
Page 55 and 56: 3.6 Summary of Strategic National R
Page 57 and 58: Map 1 Gateways National Spatial Str
Page 59 and 60: However, these integrated networks
Page 61 and 62: Map 3 National Transport Framework
Page 63 and 64: Shannon and Cork airports are strat
Page 65 and 66: The trend of growing demand in a li
Page 67 and 68: Not Feasible Feasible The National
Page 69 and 70: The net effect of these planned and
Page 71 and 72: The radial corridors: The NDP provi
Page 73 and 74: How each region will participate in
Page 75 and 76: The spatial elements in the regions
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to Dublin Strategic Rural Assets wi
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Map 5 Dublin & Mid East Regions Map
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Map 6 Midlands Map 10 Midland Regio
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Towns 1,500-5,000 population Opport
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Towns 1,500-5000 population Towns s
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County Towns and towns over 5,000 p
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The contribution that is being made
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development opportunities and subse
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Location of Development: Policies S
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5.2 Economic Development 5.2.1 The
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Effective physical and electronic a
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Ireland must also build an ‘infor
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In the agricultural and food sector
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5.3.1 Housing Location in Urban Are
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5.3.2 Housing Location in Rural Are
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The types of housing demand that ar
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Well-located and appropriately scal
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Progress towards more successful an
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Community Facilities City Planning
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guidelines and city and county deve
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Implementing the National Spatial S
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Plans setting out the actions neede
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The benefits of an NSDI are seen as
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Such policies or objectives include
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The Department of the Environment a
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Conclusion Section 7
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Appendices
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As a consequence, is it a valid pro
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Rural Areas Suggestions were made o
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• Rail access to Shannon Airport
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G GAA (Cunnane, Stratton Reynolds)
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Appendix II: Population Distributio
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This trend has been continued beyon
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Appendix III: Population Trends in
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Table 3 Towns by Order of Size 1971
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There are some key lessons from the
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Appendix V: Selection Rationale for
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Tuam Tuam will both assist in build
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en n Derry llingar re Kilkenny rd M
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Notes The National Spatial Strategy
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