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The Torturer's Dilemma: Analyzing the Logic of Torture for Information

The Torturer's Dilemma: Analyzing the Logic of Torture for Information

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torture – <strong>the</strong> state will apply it equally to both knowledgeable and ignorant captives. 73<br />

One <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> main issues with evaluating torture <strong>for</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation is <strong>the</strong> extreme secrecy with<br />

which states that torture treat <strong>the</strong> details: which techniques were used, how much pain was applied,<br />

what in<strong>for</strong>mation was given up and when, and <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> that in<strong>for</strong>mation are generally not made<br />

public record. 74 This makes it incredibly difficult to test <strong>the</strong> effectiveness <strong>of</strong> torture on knowledgeable<br />

individuals. But if <strong>the</strong> state is faced with captives <strong>of</strong> unknown type, <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> rational choice is to<br />

choose a single strategy or mix <strong>of</strong> strategies according to <strong>the</strong>ir expected utility and apply it to any<br />

captive, knowledgeable or not. 75 And if this is so, <strong>the</strong>n we may be able to draw conclusions about how<br />

effective torture was against <strong>the</strong> knowledgeable by examining how well it worked on <strong>the</strong> ignorant. In<br />

terms <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mational model <strong>of</strong> torture I put <strong>for</strong>ward, we can make <strong>the</strong> following argument:<br />

1. If <strong>the</strong> state can credibly commit to verifying <strong>the</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation it receives – even though it has a<br />

short-term incentive to cheat – <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> state should accept more good in<strong>for</strong>mation bad than<br />

bad on average.<br />

2. As <strong>the</strong> state's in<strong>for</strong>mation environment improves through <strong>the</strong> introduction <strong>of</strong> new intelligence, it<br />

should be more able to discriminate between truth and fiction.<br />

3. Consequently, if a state can credibly commit to verification <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> pool <strong>of</strong> captives should<br />

increasingly be composed <strong>of</strong> knowledgeable captives as <strong>the</strong> ignorant are weeded out.<br />

4. If <strong>the</strong> knowledgeable are a small minority in <strong>the</strong> population <strong>of</strong> all potential captives <strong>the</strong>n a large<br />

(and lopsidedly ignorant) initial pool <strong>of</strong> captives should shrink as <strong>the</strong> authorities focus <strong>the</strong>ir<br />

energies on <strong>the</strong> smaller number <strong>of</strong> knowledgeable captives.<br />

5. Since <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> FLN activists during <strong>the</strong> Battle <strong>of</strong> Algiers never exceeded 6,000 (OPA and<br />

ALN membership combined) in a total population <strong>of</strong> 80,000, successful torture should have<br />

led to a smaller and smaller number <strong>of</strong> captives as <strong>the</strong> FLN organization was broken up.<br />

73 This need not imply that this strategy is applied in all cases, but that <strong>the</strong> choice <strong>of</strong> strategy applied should be only lightly<br />

correlated with ignorance or knowledge. This analysis also presumes no agent-principle issues between state and<br />

torturer. If <strong>the</strong>re are, <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> likely result would be to under-check <strong>the</strong> captive's story in order to maximize <strong>the</strong> amount<br />

<strong>of</strong> raw data revealed – a similar process characterized <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> 'body counts' in <strong>the</strong> Viet Nam war, as <strong>of</strong>ficers acted to<br />

maximize <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> 'enemy dead' , leading to a gruesome <strong>for</strong>m <strong>of</strong> inflation. (Mueller, 1980)<br />

74 Interestingly, this is true not only <strong>for</strong> democracies: <strong>the</strong> German Geheimnisse Staatspolizei (Gestapo) in France only<br />

<strong>of</strong>ficially allowed a small number <strong>of</strong> 'sharpened' practices, all <strong>of</strong> which were in actuality superceded by torturers (Rejali)<br />

while Ron (1997; 2000) notes that autocracies have progressively moved towards non-scarring <strong>for</strong>ms <strong>of</strong> torture as a<br />

means <strong>of</strong> limiting <strong>the</strong> fallout from discovery.<br />

75 <strong>The</strong> state might very well prefer to choose different strategies <strong>for</strong> different captive types – such as not torturing ignorant<br />

captives – but this is unlikely to be possible with any degree <strong>of</strong> specificity.<br />

80

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