The Torturer's Dilemma: Analyzing the Logic of Torture for Information
The Torturer's Dilemma: Analyzing the Logic of Torture for Information
The Torturer's Dilemma: Analyzing the Logic of Torture for Information
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
Independent Variables<br />
(Outcome)<br />
Weak In<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Environment +<br />
Unreliable Agents<br />
Table 1: Continued<br />
Conspiracy Real/<br />
State's Priors Correct<br />
USA at Abu Ghraib<br />
(medium/strong cycle)<br />
Conspiracy Unreal/<br />
State's Priors Incorrect<br />
European Witch-Hunts<br />
(strongest cycle)<br />
<strong>The</strong>re are several o<strong>the</strong>r ways in which <strong>the</strong> data could present itself, however, and both would<br />
have alternate implications <strong>for</strong> my <strong>the</strong>ory. Firstly, it might be found that <strong>the</strong> variables examined appear<br />
to have little to no effect on <strong>the</strong> outcome – perhaps how in<strong>for</strong>med a state is makes no difference in its<br />
ability to confront a conspiratorial treat, real or imagined: if this is <strong>the</strong> case, <strong>the</strong>n something might be<br />
revealed about how well torture operated in <strong>the</strong>se cases, but it would clearly falsify my <strong>the</strong>ory.<br />
Alternatively, it might be found that one factor or ano<strong>the</strong>r predominated to <strong>the</strong> exclusion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r:<br />
perhaps an in<strong>for</strong>med state will be able to prevent <strong>the</strong> cycle from occurring at all, as it carefully vets <strong>the</strong><br />
stories told by captives, whe<strong>the</strong>r ignorant or knowledgeable. If this is <strong>the</strong> case, <strong>the</strong>n torture is entirely<br />
unproblematic, as it would indicate that states possess both <strong>the</strong> capability <strong>of</strong> testing in<strong>for</strong>mation, and<br />
<strong>the</strong> will to do so – a severe blow to my <strong>the</strong>ory. Finally, and most intriguingly, perhaps <strong>the</strong> relationship<br />
between <strong>the</strong>se two causal mechanisms is not purely additive, but interactive: it may be that an in<strong>for</strong>med<br />
state unknowingly facing a false threat is actually more likely to spiral into deception than an<br />
unin<strong>for</strong>med one in <strong>the</strong> same circumstances, even if being in<strong>for</strong>med trumps being unin<strong>for</strong>med when<br />
facing an actual conspiracy. If so, <strong>the</strong>n states making use <strong>of</strong> torture may face an additional danger –<br />
that an in<strong>for</strong>med state applying torture under false assumptions might choose to believe in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
ga<strong>the</strong>red through torture over in<strong>for</strong>mation gleaned through more prosaic detection methods. Where this<br />
is <strong>the</strong> case, it becomes clear that <strong>the</strong> captive's every incentive is to take advantage <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> state's naïveté.<br />
While <strong>the</strong> comparative case study method does limit <strong>the</strong> ability to derive conclusions from <strong>the</strong><br />
data we examine, this method does <strong>of</strong>fer one major compensation: <strong>the</strong> ability to perceive <strong>the</strong> presence<br />
35