Renewable Energy Technology Assessments - Kauai Island Utility ...

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Kaua’i Island Utility Cooperative Renewable Energy Technology Assessments 8.0 Hydro and economic assumptions as well as the results of the life-cycle cost analysis are presented in Table 8-3. A discussion of the modeling approach and detailed financial assumptions are provided in Section 5. Figure 8-12 shows an example life-cycle cost calculation for the Waimea Mauka project. Table 8-3. Hydro Life-Cycle Economic Assumptions ($2005). Unit Wainiha Upper Lihue Wailua Waimea Mauka Puu Lua- Kitano Kitano- Waimea Capacity MW 4 0.3 6.6 2.9 2.97 4.078 Capital Cost $/kW 4,496 7,248 2,044 1,213 5,933 3,955 First Year Fixed O&M $/kW-yr 67.5 101.8 31.1 27.7 89.6 61.6 First Year Variable O&M $/MWh N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A First Year Fuel Cost $/MBtu N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Net Plant Heat Rate Btu/kWh N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Capacity Factor percent 64% 69% 28% 15% 61% 48% KIUC Levelized Cost KIUC Premium Developer Levelized Cost Developer Premium 2009$/ MWh 2009$/ MWh 2009$/ MWh 2009$/ MWh 58.4 86.1 60.4 79.1 81.8 69.9 (116.3) (88.6) (114.4) (95.7) (93.0) (104.8) 123.9 181.5 127.6 146.0 169.2 143.0 (50.9) 6.8 (47.2) (28.7) (5.6) (31.8) The levelized cost of generating power from the six projects ranged from $58/MWh for Wainiha to $86/MWh for Upper Lihue assuming KIUC ownership. The extended project life assumption for hydro (50 years) gives hydro a slight competitive advantage over the other resources. However, this assumption is justified based on the long record of successful operation of Kauai’s existing hydro plants. Compared to KIUC’s forecasted avoided energy costs, the levelized cost premiums ranged from ($116)/MWh to ($89)/MWh. The negative premium indicates that developing these resources is less expensive than the forecasts of KIUC’s avoided costs. The best project appears to be the Wainiha project, which had undergone extensive development in the 1980s before being halted due to low power prices. The levelized cost of power with developer ownership was also calculated. The levelized cost premium was still lower than the avoided cost forecasts, but not as low as with KIUC financing. The levelized cost of generating power with developer ownership was consistently higher than the cost with KIUC ownership, despite the advantage of the PTC. This occurs because of the large difference in financing cost between the developer and KIUC. It is noted that more than the other technologies, KIUC ownership of hydro 21 March 2005 8-20 Black & Veatch
Kaua’i Island Utility Cooperative Renewable Energy Technology Assessments 8.0 Hydro projects many not be feasible in all situations. KIUC will need to work closely with other parties to ensure the most appropriate arrangement. Plant Input Data Economic Input Data Rate Escalation Capital Cost ($1,000) 3,959 First Year Fixed O&M ($1,000) 90.25 3.0% Total Net Capacity (MW) 2.90 First Year Variable O&M ($1,000) 0.00 3.0% Capacity Factor 15% Fuel Rate ($/MWh) 0.00 3.0% Full Load Heat Rate, Btu/kWh (HHV) - Debt Term 25 Project Life 50 Present Worth Discount Rate 5.0% Hours per Year Annual 8,760 Levelized Fixed Charge Rate 5.12% Avoided Avoided Capital Variable PW Total Capacity Energy Cost Fixed O&M O&M Fuel Rate Fuel Cost Total Cost Cost Busbar Cost PW Cost Cost Cost Year ($1,000) ($1,000) ($1,000) ($/MBtu) ($1,000) ($1,000) ($1,000) ($/MWh) ($/MWh) ($/kW) ($/MWh) 2009 203 90 - - - 293 279 74.93 71.36 0.00 111.89 2010 203 93 - - - 296 268 75.62 68.59 0.00 121.46 2011 203 96 - - - 299 258 76.34 65.94 0.00 131.10 2012 203 99 - - - 302 248 77.07 63.41 0.00 133.40 2013 203 102 - - - 304 239 77.83 60.98 0.00 139.93 2014 203 105 - - - 308 229 78.61 58.66 160.34 146.48 2015 203 108 - - - 311 221 79.41 56.43 162.00 155.09 2016 203 111 - - - 314 212 80.24 54.31 160.15 159.54 2017 203 114 - - - 317 204 81.09 52.27 192.08 155.25 2018 203 118 - - - 321 197 81.96 50.32 192.80 164.57 2019 203 121 - - - 324 190 82.87 48.45 192.35 168.47 2020 203 125 - - - 328 183 83.80 46.66 183.14 166.80 2021 203 129 - - - 332 176 84.75 44.95 203.74 163.22 2022 203 133 - - - 335 169 85.74 43.30 200.11 168.86 2023 203 137 - - - 339 163 86.76 41.73 196.32 159.73 2024 203 141 - - - 344 157 87.80 40.22 214.88 164.41 2025 203 145 - - - 348 152 88.88 38.78 202.03 166.83 2026 203 149 - - - 352 146 89.99 37.39 206.07 170.16 2027 203 154 - - - 357 141 91.14 36.07 210.19 173.57 2028 203 158 - - - 361 136 92.31 34.79 214.40 177.04 2029 203 163 - - - 366 131 93.53 33.57 218.68 180.58 2030 203 168 - - - 371 127 94.78 32.40 223.06 184.19 2031 203 173 - - - 376 122 96.07 31.28 227.52 187.87 2032 203 178 - - - 381 118 97.39 30.20 232.07 191.63 2033 203 183 - - - 386 114 98.76 29.16 236.71 195.46 2034 - 189 - - - 189 53 48.30 13.58 241.44 199.37 2035 - 195 - - - 195 52 49.75 13.33 246.27 203.36 2036 - 200 - - - 200 51 51.24 13.07 251.20 207.43 2037 - 206 - - - 206 50 52.78 12.82 256.22 211.58 2038 - 213 - - - 213 49 54.36 12.58 261.35 215.81 2039 - 219 - - - 219 48 55.99 12.34 266.57 220.12 2040 - 226 - - - 226 47 57.67 12.10 271.91 224.53 2041 - 232 - - - 232 46 59.40 11.87 277.34 229.02 2042 - 239 - - - 239 46 61.19 11.65 282.89 233.60 2043 - 247 - - - 247 45 63.02 11.43 288.55 238.27 2044 - 254 - - - 254 44 64.91 11.21 294.32 243.03 2045 - 262 - - - 262 43 66.86 10.99 300.21 247.90 2046 - 269 - - - 269 42 68.86 10.78 306.21 252.85 2047 - 277 - - - 277 41 70.93 10.58 312.33 257.91 2048 - 286 - - - 286 41 73.06 10.38 318.58 263.07 2049 - 294 - - - 294 40 75.25 10.18 324.95 268.33 2050 - 303 - - - 303 39 77.51 9.99 331.45 273.70 2051 - 312 - - - 312 38 79.83 9.80 338.08 279.17 2052 - 322 - - - 322 38 82.23 9.61 344.84 284.75 2053 - 331 - - - 331 37 84.69 9.43 351.74 290.45 2054 - 341 - - - 341 36 87.24 9.25 358.77 296.26 2055 - 352 - - - 352 35 89.85 9.07 365.95 302.18 2056 - 362 - - - 362 35 92.55 8.90 373.27 308.23 2057 - 373 - - - 373 34 95.32 8.73 380.73 314.39 2058 - 384 - - - 384 33 98.18 8.56 388.35 320.68 Levelized Bus-bar Cost, $/MWh Net Levelized Cost ($1,000) Mauka Hydro 79.07 309.33 Levelized Avoided Capacity Cost, $/MWh - Levelized Avoided Energy Cost, $/MWh 174.74 Levelized Cost Premium, $/MWh (95.67) Figure 8-12. Life-cycle Cost for Waimea Mauka Hydro Project. 21 March 2005 8-21 Black & Veatch
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