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<strong>SHOPPER</strong> <strong>INSIGHTS</strong> February 2012<br />

American ShopperScape ®


2011 American ShopperScape ®<br />

/ Table of Contents<br />

Shoppers Today ...................................................................................................2<br />

Shopping Modes..................................................................................................6<br />

Measuring Loyalty & Leakage ............................................................................9<br />

Walmart Watch: Declining Shopping Frequency .............................................12<br />

Amazon.com Continues Move Toward Being a ................................................19<br />

Mainstream Shopping Destination<br />

Online Shopping: The New General Store .......................................................24<br />

/ Authors<br />

Mary Brett Whitfield<br />

Senior Vice President<br />

marybrett.whitfield@kantarretail.com<br />

Rachel McGuire<br />

Senior Analyst<br />

rachel.mcguire@kantarretail.com<br />

Kate Senzamici<br />

Analyst<br />

kate.senzamici@kantarretail.com<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong>. All rights reserved.<br />

/ <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

Two Easton Oval<br />

Suite 500<br />

Columbus, Ohio 43219<br />

Telephone: (614)-355-4000<br />

www.kantarretail.com<br />

www.kantarretailiq.com<br />

No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,<br />

including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and/or retrieval system, without permission in<br />

writing from the publisher.


Shoppers Today<br />

Even with the economy still stuck in low gear, shoppers<br />

have started 2012 with a fairly positive outlook for the year<br />

(Figure 1):<br />

A quarter of shoppers (26%) expect to be better off in<br />

2012 vs. last year in terms of their personal household<br />

financial situation; this number rockets to nearly four<br />

in 10 Gen Y shoppers and one-third of shoppers in the<br />

Gen X cohort.<br />

Figure 1: Shoppers’ Outlook for Personal Financial<br />

Situation in 2012, by Generation<br />

26%<br />

46%<br />

“Note: Boxes indicates significant difference from all shoppers (90%<br />

confidence level<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , October 2011<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

39%<br />

36%<br />

33%<br />

44%<br />

22%<br />

47%<br />

21% 12% 15% 25% 28%<br />

7% 13% 9% 6% 5%<br />

All Shoppers Gen Y Gen X Baby<br />

Boomers<br />

Not sure Worse than it is today<br />

About the same as it is today Better than it is today<br />

16%<br />

52%<br />

Seniors<br />

- 2 -<br />

Consistent with other attitudes and below-average<br />

spending intentions throughout the recession and<br />

recovery, Seniors and Boomers continue to be<br />

skeptical about improving prospects.<br />

Shoppers’ assessment of the outlook for the economy<br />

as a whole are not nearly as positive: only 19%<br />

expect the economy to be better in 2012 than it was in<br />

2011, and that assessment is fairly consistent across<br />

generational cohorts (Figure 2).<br />

Figure 2: Shoppers’ Outlook for Overall U.S. Economy<br />

in 2012, by Generation<br />

19% 23% 19% 16% 20%<br />

35%<br />

37%<br />

9%<br />

34% 40%<br />

26%<br />

29%<br />

17% 11%<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , October 2011<br />

32%<br />

43%<br />

All Shoppers Gen Y Gen X Baby<br />

Boomers<br />

33%<br />

42%<br />

8% 5%<br />

Not sure Worse than it is today<br />

About the same as it is today Better than it is today<br />

Seniors


Even though shoppers have low expectations for an<br />

improving economy in 2012, a positive outlook is apparent<br />

in spending intentions. After deteriorating early in 2011<br />

and stalling out mid-year, shoppers’ spending sentiment<br />

has been improving now for four consecutive months<br />

(Figure 3).<br />

Despite the current positive indicators, few factors<br />

related to shopper’s financial outlook seem likely to boost<br />

spending in a dramatic way (Figure 4). Across six measure<br />

of household financial health, shoppers are more likely<br />

to assess their household financial situation as worse<br />

off vs. better off compared with last year, but on most<br />

measures, they don’t perceive a change in their situation in<br />

either direction. Particular pockets of concern, however:<br />

shoppers’ assessments of worth of investments and home<br />

values.<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

- 3 -<br />

Figure 3: Spending Intentions in Coming Month Compared<br />

with Same Period Last Year<br />

60%<br />

50%<br />

40%<br />

30%<br />

20%<br />

10%<br />

0%<br />

May-08<br />

Jul-08<br />

Sep-08<br />

Nov-08<br />

Jan-09<br />

(three-month moving average)<br />

Spend Much/<br />

Somewhat More<br />

Mar-09<br />

May-09<br />

Jul-09<br />

Sep-09<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , May 2008-January 2012<br />

Figure 4: Household Financial Health Compared with Same Period a Year Ago<br />

Job security<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® October–December 2010 and 2011<br />

Nov-09<br />

Jan-10<br />

Mar-10<br />

May-10<br />

Q4 2010 Q4 2011<br />

Net - Much better/somewhat better off 17% 17%<br />

No change from last year 63% 62%<br />

Net - Somewhat worse/much worse off 20% 21%<br />

Household Income level<br />

Net - Much better/somewhat better off 25% 25%<br />

No change from last year 47% 47%<br />

Net - Somewhat worse/much worse off 28% 28%<br />

Credit card debt<br />

Net - Much better/somewhat better off 25% 24%<br />

No change from last year 56% 57%<br />

Net - Somewhat worse/much worse off 19% 19%<br />

Monthly mortgage/car payments<br />

Net - Much better/somewhat better off 19% 20%<br />

No change from last year 68% 67%<br />

Net - Somewhat worse/much worse off 13% 13%<br />

Worth of investments<br />

Net - Much better/somewhat better off 23% 16%<br />

No change from last year 51% 52%<br />

Net - Somewhat worse/much worse off 25% 32%<br />

Value of home<br />

Net - Much better/somewhat better off 15% 14%<br />

No change from last year 56% 55%<br />

Net - Somewhat worse/much worse off 29% 31%<br />

Jul-10<br />

Sep-10<br />

Nov-10<br />

Jan-11<br />

Shoppers Today<br />

Mar-11<br />

May-11<br />

Spend About<br />

the Same<br />

Spend Much/<br />

Somewhat Less<br />

Jul-11<br />

Sep-11<br />

Nov-11<br />

Jan-12


Shoppers’ assessments of their own situations can<br />

run counter to the situation of the aggregate (as in the<br />

case of more shoppers feeling worse off regarding job<br />

security despite an improving jobs picture). Therefore,<br />

it is important to monitor shoppers’ actions, paying<br />

attention to what shoppers do as measured by retail<br />

sales results, shopping patterns, and spending intentions<br />

vs. what shoppers say in measures of confidence and<br />

sentiment. However, expect cautiousness toward<br />

spending to resurface amid uncertainty in the run-up to<br />

the November elections—as was the case in the approach<br />

to the 2010 mid-term elections, when shoppers’ spending<br />

intentions leveled off for several months. As the election<br />

approaches and negative campaign ads ramp up, the same<br />

pattern could very well appear, regardless of the health of<br />

economic or household fundamentals.<br />

In terms of planned approaches to shopping this year,<br />

shoppers continue to signal that deal-seeking and limiting<br />

behaviors will characterize the shopping mindset<br />

(Figure 5):<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

Figure 5: Participation in Shopping Behavior Changes<br />

Behavior Changes In Recession<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , February 2010 and October 2011<br />

- 4 -<br />

Shoppers Today<br />

Among the Top 10 behaviors shoppers anticipate<br />

adopting in 2012—all of which have participation<br />

rates between one-quarter and just over a half of<br />

shoppers—three are “deal-seeking” behaviors (e.g.,<br />

taking advantage of good sales and deals) and six<br />

are related to “limiting” (e.g., buying only things truly<br />

needed).<br />

Only one of the Top 10 shopping approaches is related<br />

to “trading down”: shopping more at value/discount<br />

retailers.<br />

Relative to deal-seeking, limiting or even trading<br />

down behaviors, few shoppers indicate plans to move<br />

some shopping online—by shopping online for more<br />

things, shopping online more often, or switching<br />

some purchasing to auto-replenishment programs.<br />

However, with as many as one in 10 shoppers planning<br />

to adopt these behaviors, it is certain that the<br />

Internet’s role in shopping will accelerate over time.<br />

Plan for<br />

2012 Type of Behavior<br />

Taking advantage of good sales/deals 41% 54% Deal-Seeking<br />

Buying only things I truly need 40% 52% Limiting<br />

Using more coupons 34% 48% Deal-Seeking<br />

Buying fewer things 33% 42% Limiting<br />

Doing more price comparisons before purchasing 33% 38% Deal-Seeking<br />

Shopping less often 31% 34% Limiting<br />

Using/keeping items longer before replacing 20% 30% Limiting<br />

Buying only items needed in the near term 23% 28% Limiting<br />

Shopping more at discount/value retailers 22% 28% Trading-Down<br />

Postponing more purchases 28% 25% Limiting<br />

Buying less expensive versions of products 27% 24% Trading-Down<br />

Buying fewer luxury items 35% 24% Limiting<br />

Buying more store brands vs. national brands 26% 22% Trading-Down<br />

Trading down to less-expensive brands na 16% Trading-Down<br />

Shopping online for more things na 13% Moving Online<br />

Shopping online more often na 12% Moving Online<br />

Using smart phone to compare prices while in stores na 6% Deal-Seeking<br />

Switching some purchasing to "auto-replenishment"<br />

programs<br />

na 1% Moving Online


Regardless of how shoppers plan to attack shopping in<br />

2012, it is quite likely they will be doing their shopping at<br />

a broader set of retailers than have been on the shopping<br />

list during the past few years (Figure 6). The average<br />

number of retailers shopped in December 2011 hit 13.4,<br />

the most retailers shopped in any December since 2008<br />

but still below the pre-recession December high of 14.7<br />

retailers in 2007.<br />

After two years of declining or steady figures, the number<br />

of retailers shopped on a monthly basis trended upward<br />

in 2011. Specifically in the fourth quarter, the pattern<br />

in previous years has been that the number of retailers<br />

shopped per month dropped off early from the mini-peak<br />

of retailers shopped during the core back-to-school<br />

16.0<br />

14.0<br />

12.0<br />

10.0<br />

8.0<br />

6.0<br />

4.0<br />

2.0<br />

0.0<br />

Jan-07<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

Mar-07<br />

May-07<br />

- 5 -<br />

shopping months before spiking again in December. In<br />

2011, however, the number of retailers shopped in the<br />

fourth quarter ramped up month-to-month. The relatively<br />

high number of retailers shopped in November 2011 (11.8<br />

vs. 10.8 in 2010) likely reflects holiday shoppers seeking<br />

out Black Friday deals from a wider variety of retailers—<br />

many of which started “Black Friday” on Thanksgiving or<br />

earlier in the month—to start the holiday season.<br />

The number of retailers shopped within each group of<br />

retailers—FDM, Softgoods, Homegoods, and others—<br />

exhibited the same pattern of month-to-month growth<br />

over the course of the quarter. Shoppers had more<br />

Softgoods retailers on their shopping list in December<br />

2011—5.0—than any month since December 2007.<br />

Figure 6: Average Number of <strong>Retail</strong>ers Shopped during Past Four Weeks<br />

Jul-07<br />

14.7<br />

Total Avg. # of<br />

<strong>Retail</strong>ers Shopped<br />

Sep-07<br />

Avg. # of Homegoods<br />

<strong>Retail</strong>ers Shopped<br />

Nov-07<br />

Jan-08<br />

(inclusive of all visits to stores, Web sites, or catalogs)<br />

13.5<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , January 2007-December 2011<br />

Mar-08<br />

May-08<br />

Jul-08<br />

Sep-08<br />

Nov-08<br />

Jan-09<br />

Avg. # of FDM<br />

<strong>Retail</strong>ers Shopped<br />

Mar-09<br />

May-09<br />

Jul-09<br />

Sep-09<br />

Nov-09<br />

13.1 13.1<br />

Jan-10<br />

Mar-10<br />

Avg. # of Softgoods<br />

<strong>Retail</strong>ers Shopped<br />

May-10<br />

Jul-10<br />

Avg. # of Other<br />

<strong>Retail</strong>ers Shopped<br />

Sep-10<br />

Nov-10<br />

Jan-11<br />

Mar-11<br />

May-11<br />

Jul-11<br />

Sep-11<br />

Shoppers Today<br />

Nov-11<br />

13.4


Shopping Modes: Low-Cost Replenishment Leads<br />

The Six Shopping Modes typology reflects the primary ways shoppers approach shopping (Figures 1 and 2).<br />

1. Low-cost Replenishment proves to be the most common shopping mode yet again—consistent with data from March<br />

2008 and June 2009. However, the mode registers even higher percentages of shoppers indicating this is a typical<br />

approach to shopping (71%, compared with 62% in March 2008 and 65% two years ago). As usual, food/drug/mass<br />

retailers hold the top spots here—with Walmart and Target as the top two retailers shoppers associated with this<br />

shopping mode, but Kohl’s and JCPenney also make the Top 10 list. Warehouse clubs also are in the ranking for this<br />

mode, with Costco and Sam’s Club occupying the sixth and 10 th spots.<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

62%<br />

65%<br />

71%<br />

Low-cost<br />

Replenishment<br />

Figure 1: Participation Rate in Shopping by Shopping Mode<br />

54% 55% 55%<br />

50% 50% 49%<br />

Thrill of<br />

the Hunt<br />

Shopping Mode Descriptions:<br />

Speed &<br />

Convenience<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , March 2008, June 2009, June 2011<br />

- 6 -<br />

31%<br />

31%<br />

Sense of<br />

Discovery<br />

29%<br />

Mar-08 Jun-09 Jun-11<br />

18% 20% 18%<br />

12% 14% 14%<br />

Solve a<br />

Problem<br />

Low-Cost Replenishment: Shopping for products that need to be replaced on a routine basis<br />

Thrill of the Hunt: Hunting for unique bargains<br />

Speed & Convenience: Buying goods in the fastest and most convenient way<br />

Sense of Discovery: Shopping at a retailer to discover new things<br />

Solve a Problem: Looking to a retailer for advice on how to do things or get help solving problems<br />

Self Expression: Shopping at a retailer because it reflects how I express myself and my lifestyle<br />

Self-<br />

Expression


2. Thrill of the Hunt remains the second-most common shopping mode—but is down slightly compared with<br />

June 2009. Walmart again gets the top nod here, but at a much lower rate than its association with low-cost<br />

replenishment shopping. Thrill of the Hunt shopping is strongly associated with off-price apparel specialty retailers,<br />

as well as small-format value retailers and “alternative” retail options such as thrift stores and eBay. The attraction<br />

of half of U.S. primary household shoppers to this shopping mode is likely linked to the deal-seeking behavior<br />

shoppers adopted during the economic recession. This has led to the dollar channel’s increased popularity, as well<br />

as shoppers’ tendency to shop around for the best deal.<br />

3. The incidence of shoppers engaging in shopping in Speed and Convenience mode holds steady in the third spot. This<br />

mode has lost some popularity, however, compared with previous periods. Here, as with low-cost replenishment<br />

mode shopping, food/drug/mass retailers continue to play an important role, with Walmart and Target occupying the<br />

top two spots of retailers mentioned on an unaided basis as being associated with this mode of shopping. However,<br />

online has a far greater impact on this mode compared with low-cost replenishment, with Amazon.com as the thirdmost<br />

mentioned retailer associated with this mode. With the wide variety of products available online, as well as the<br />

ability to shop any time of day or night, it is no surprise that Amazon is so strongly related to a quick and convenient<br />

shopping experience.<br />

1 Walmart/<br />

WMSC<br />

Low Cost<br />

Replenishment<br />

n = 794<br />

2 Target/<br />

SuperTarget<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

- 7 -<br />

Shopping Modes: Low-Cost Replenishment Leads<br />

Figure 2: Top 10 <strong>Retail</strong>ers Shoppers Most Associated with Shopping Modes<br />

39% Walmart/<br />

WMSC<br />

Thrill of the Hunt<br />

n = 809<br />

17% Walmart/<br />

WMSC<br />

Speed &<br />

Convenience<br />

n = 790<br />

9% Kohl's 8% Target/<br />

SuperTarget<br />

Note: Unaided mentions by shoppers indicating shopping in shopping mode<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , June 2011<br />

41% Walmart/<br />

WMSC<br />

Sense of Discovery<br />

n= 690<br />

9% Target/<br />

SuperTarget<br />

15% The Home<br />

Depot<br />

3 Kroger 3% Thrift Stores 6% Amazon 4% Kohl's 6% Walmart/<br />

WMSC<br />

4 Meijer 2% Target/<br />

SuperTarget<br />

Solve a Problem<br />

n = 477<br />

Self-Expression<br />

n = 465<br />

26% Kohl's 11%<br />

10% Lowe's 24% Target/<br />

SuperTarget<br />

7% Walmart/<br />

WMSC<br />

6% Kroger 3% Amazon 6% Ace Hardware 5% Macy's 5%<br />

5 Kohl's 2% TJ Maxx 5% Publix 2% Macy's 4% Best Buy 4% Nordstrom/<br />

Nordstrom<br />

Rack<br />

6 Costco 2% Marshalls 5% Meijer 2% TJ Maxx 3% Menard's 3% JCPenney 3%<br />

7 WinCo Foods 2% Big Lots 3% Kohls 2% Lowe's 3% Macy's 2% Whole<br />

Foods<br />

8 Shop Rite 2% Ross Dress<br />

for Less<br />

9 JCPenney 2% eBay.com 2% Dollar<br />

General<br />

3% Costco 2% JCPenney 2% Target/<br />

SuperTarget<br />

10%<br />

9%<br />

3%<br />

3%<br />

1% Amazon 2%<br />

1% Marshalls 2% Walgreens 1% Express 2%<br />

10 Sam's Club 1% JCPenney 2% JCPenney 1% Best Buy 2% Bed Bath &<br />

Beyond<br />

1% Old Navy 1%<br />

HEB 1% Amazon 1% Kmart 1%<br />

Ann Taylor/<br />

Ann Taylor<br />

Loft<br />

1%


4. As the fourth-most popular shopping mode, Sense of Discovery is an approach to shopping engaged in by fewer<br />

than one-third of shoppers. This mode shows yet another instance where Walmart and Target appeal to shoppers.<br />

However, apparel retailers dominate the Top 10 list, with Kohl’s as the top apparel retailer that shoppers associate<br />

with sense of discovery shopping, and Macy’s landing on the list in fifth place. Amazon.com, with its huge range<br />

and variety of products, comes in at #4. Home-improvement/consumer electronics retailers also are strongly<br />

associated with this mode—namely Lowe’s, but Best Buy makes the Top 10 list too.<br />

5. Among all shoppers, Solve a Problem ties as the fifth-most common shopping mode (14%)—with participation<br />

rates in this shopping mode up and down over time. Not surprisingly, home improvement/CE retailers are most<br />

associated with looking for advice or getting help solving a problem—although Walmart is sandwiched into the #3<br />

spot among The Home Depot, Lowe’s, Ace Hardware, and Best Buy.<br />

6. Last on the list is Self-expression mode shopping, with participation rates declining over time. Many apparel<br />

retailers are associated with this mode (Kohl’s tops the list), but Target and Walmart still get a nod here. Some<br />

higher-end retailers make the list of those most associated with self-expression shopping—Nordstrom, Whole<br />

Foods—which is not surprising as higher-income shoppers are more likely to have that luxury of selecting retailers<br />

based on the desire to self-express.<br />

The participation rate in shopping modes can vary by generational cohort (Figure 3). However, Thrill of the Hunt and<br />

Speed & Convenience shopping have fairly consistent participation rates across generations.<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

» Older shoppers—especially Seniors, but also Boomers to a slightly lesser extent—are most likely to shop in<br />

Low-cost Replenishment and Solve a Problem mode.<br />

» Only just over half (56%) of Gen Y shoppers report the Low-cost replenishment mode shopping is common<br />

for them, which is a significantly lower participation rate then for all shoppers.<br />

» In contrast, Gen Y shoppers are the most likely Self Expression and Sense of Discovery Shoppers.<br />

90%<br />

80%<br />

70%<br />

60%<br />

50%<br />

40%<br />

30%<br />

20%<br />

10%<br />

0%<br />

Low-cost<br />

Replenishment<br />

Figure 3: Partcipation Rate in Shopping Mode by Generation, 2011<br />

Thrill of the Hunt Speed &<br />

Convenience<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , June 2011<br />

Gen Y Gen X Boomers Seniors<br />

- 8 -<br />

Shopping Modes: Low-Cost Replenishment Leads<br />

Sense of Discovery Solve a Problem Self-Expression<br />

Represents All Shoppers Incidence Rate


Measuring Loyalty and Leakage<br />

One of the ways to measure loyalty to a retailer is to<br />

understand the degree to which its regular shoppers<br />

use it as their primary or preferred store in any given<br />

category. Obviously, the goal for every retailer is to<br />

capture a significant share of its regular shoppers’<br />

spending in the categories the retailer is most known<br />

for. But the reality is that very few retailers can claim a<br />

“capture rate” in core categories that even approaches<br />

50%.<br />

Groceries<br />

For food and groceries, approximately 50% of leading<br />

supermarkets’ monthly shoppers indicate spending<br />

51% 51%<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

- 9 -<br />

the most there (Figure 1). Safeway’s 41% capture rate<br />

is ominously low when compared with other leading<br />

conventional supermarket operators. It leaks shoppers<br />

at a greater rate than other supermarkets to warehouse<br />

clubs: 10% of regular Safeway shoppers report spending<br />

the most on food and groceries at Costco.<br />

Specialty food retailers or those that cater to a specific<br />

shopper niche—e.g., Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s, or ALDI—<br />

have capture rates of no more than 20%, meaning that<br />

just one in five shoppers uses the retailer as her primary<br />

grocery store.<br />

Figure 1: Capture Rate: Food/Groceries<br />

Percent of <strong>Retail</strong>er’s Monthly Shopper Base that Spends the Most at that <strong>Retail</strong>er<br />

41%<br />

51%<br />

18%<br />

Kroger Publix Safeway Wegman's Whole<br />

Foods<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape®, January–December 2011<br />

14%<br />

Trader<br />

Joe's<br />

20%<br />

38%<br />

24%<br />

15%<br />

ALDI Walmart Costco Sam's Target Dollar<br />

Stores<br />

6%<br />

2%


The mass retailers—both the supercenter/warehouse club<br />

big-box variety and the small-box dollar store variety—<br />

capture no more than approximately one-third of shoppers<br />

in terms of primary grocery spending. Costco has a<br />

higher capture rate than Sam’s but both pale vs. Walmart.<br />

With single-digit capture rates for groceries, Target and<br />

dollar stores clearly serve as secondary channels for<br />

purchasing in these categories. But Walmart plays a<br />

significant role in grocery shopping routines (Figure 2).<br />

Among the regular shoppers of all these leading retailers,<br />

Walmart is either the top or second-place destination<br />

for groceries—with the exception of Trader Joe’s: its<br />

shoppers’ top two destinations are indeed Trader Joe’s<br />

and Costco. Among Aldi, Sam’s Club, and Target monthly<br />

shoppers, more choose Walmart as the retailer where<br />

they spend the most on groceries.<br />

Health & Beauty Care<br />

Overall, Walmart has the highest share of preference for<br />

health and beauty care spending, and the retailer is the<br />

store of preference for more than half of its shoppers<br />

(Figure 3). Walmart’s capture rate of 52% is significantly<br />

higher than the capture rate of the Big 3 drug store<br />

retailers—all of which leak a substantial share of shoppers<br />

to Walmart, but Walgreens most of all (Figure 4). Walmart’s<br />

capture rate also exceeds Target’s, but Target is more likely<br />

to leak shoppers to the drug store channel than Walmart.<br />

Typically, supermarkets have a capture rate in this<br />

category that registers in the single digits. Kroger is an<br />

exception: 13% of its monthly shoppers spend the most on<br />

health and beauty care there.<br />

36%<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

31%<br />

Figure 3: Capture Rate: Health & Beauty Care<br />

Percent of <strong>Retail</strong>er’s Monthly Shopper Base that Spends the Most at that <strong>Retail</strong>er<br />

25%<br />

52%<br />

31%<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® CVS Rite Aid Walgreeens Walmart Target Dollar<br />

Stores<br />

, January–December 2011<br />

- 10 -<br />

Percent of <strong>Retail</strong>er's<br />

Monthly Shopper Base<br />

that Spends the<br />

Most at Walmart<br />

Kroger 20%<br />

Publix 20%<br />

Safeway 10%<br />

Wegman's 7%<br />

Percent of <strong>Retail</strong>er's<br />

Monthly Shopper Base<br />

that Spends the<br />

Most at Walmart<br />

Measuring Loyalty and Leakage<br />

Figure 2: Role of Walmart: Food/Groceries<br />

Share Spending<br />

Most at Walmart ><br />

Share Spending Most<br />

at <strong>Retail</strong>er<br />

Whole Foods 11%<br />

Trader Joe's 6%<br />

Aldi 23% √<br />

Costco 10%<br />

Sam's 28% √<br />

Target 14% √<br />

Dollar Store 33% √<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape®, January–December 2011<br />

Figure 4: Role of Walmart: Health and Beauty Care<br />

Share Spending<br />

Most at Walmart ><br />

Share Spending Most<br />

at <strong>Retail</strong>er<br />

CVS 19%<br />

Rite Aid 18%<br />

Walgreens 28% √<br />

Target 20%<br />

Dollar Stores 41% √<br />

Kroger 32% √<br />

Safeway 23% √<br />

Publix 30% √<br />

Costco 21% √<br />

Sams 39% √<br />

Dollar Store 33% √<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape®, January–December 2011<br />

14% 13%<br />

7% 7%<br />

9%<br />

4%<br />

Kroger Safeway Publix Costco Sam's


Casual Apparel<br />

Among leading apparel retailers, Kohl’s has the highest<br />

capture rate: 54% of its monthly shoppers spend the most<br />

on casual apparel there (Figure 5). Sears has the lowest<br />

capture rate of the value department stores; more of its<br />

shoppers spend most on casual apparel at Walmart than<br />

do at Sears.<br />

Walmart’s capture rate of 26% is double that of Target’s.<br />

Despite Target’s appeal to “Target-ista Fashionistas,”<br />

many of its monthly shoppers spend the most on casual<br />

apparel at specialty apparel stores or Kohl’s. When<br />

Walmart shoppers don’t spend the most on casual clothes<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

54%<br />

- 11 -<br />

at Walmart, they also are most likely to be spending at<br />

apparel specialists.<br />

Consumer Electronics<br />

As with other merchandise groups, there is a retailer<br />

with a standout capture rate for consumer electronics<br />

spending. Best Buy captures more than one-half of its<br />

regular shoppers’ spending on consumer electronics and<br />

computers. A very respectable 22% of regular Amazon.<br />

com shoppers spend the most on consumer electronics at<br />

the online giant, but nearly as many (20%) spend the most<br />

at Best Buy (Figure 6).<br />

Figure 5: Capture Rate: Casual Clothing for Everyday/Weekends<br />

Percent of <strong>Retail</strong>er’s Monthly Shopper Base that Spends the Most at that <strong>Retail</strong>er<br />

41%<br />

15%<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® Kohl's JCPenney Sears Macy's Nordstrom Apparel<br />

Speciality<br />

Stores<br />

, January–December 2011<br />

53%<br />

36%<br />

21%<br />

38%<br />

26%<br />

13%<br />

Walmart Target<br />

Figure 6: Capture Rate: Consumer Electronics/Computers<br />

Percent of <strong>Retail</strong>er’s Monthly Shopper Base that Spends the Most at that <strong>Retail</strong>er<br />

29%<br />

11%<br />

28%<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , January–December 2011<br />

11%<br />

Best Buy Apple Game Stop Walmart Target Costco Sam's Staples Amazon<br />

13%<br />

9%<br />

21%<br />

22%


Walmart Watch: Declining Shopping Frequency<br />

In a period in which Walmart is in the midst of a change<br />

in strategy, about one-fifth of Walmart shoppers say they<br />

are shopping there less often than they were a year ago—<br />

while only 15% say they are shopping the retailer more<br />

often (Figure 1). Although Walmart is leaking shoppers at<br />

a consistent rate across all demographic segments, it is<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

All Shoppers<br />

Gen Y<br />

Gen X<br />

Baby Boomers<br />

Seniors<br />

No children at home<br />

Children at home<br />

Down Market<br />

Middle Market<br />

Up Market<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , May 2011<br />

Figure 1: Changes in Walmart Shopping Frequency<br />

13%<br />

9%<br />

15%<br />

13%<br />

14%<br />

12%<br />

17%<br />

20%<br />

19%<br />

25%<br />

(among Walmart shoppers)<br />

- 12 -<br />

having slightly better luck attracting young, down-market<br />

families more frequently. Gen Y shoppers, shoppers with<br />

children at home, and down-market shoppers represent<br />

the Walmart shopper segments with the highest<br />

percentages who say they are shopping there more<br />

often—25%, 20%, and 19%, respectively.<br />

66%<br />

71%<br />

64%<br />

61%<br />

65%<br />

58%<br />

65%<br />

68%<br />

59%<br />

54%<br />

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%<br />

Shopping more often Shopping about the same Shopping less often<br />

21%<br />

21%<br />

22%<br />

22%<br />

21%<br />

22%<br />

20%<br />

23%<br />

22%<br />

19%


In tune with the broader retail landscape, Walmart is<br />

experiencing the effect of shoppers scaling back on trips<br />

overall (Figure 2).<br />

While the grocery channel still holds the highest<br />

percentage of shoppers making weekly trips, this<br />

figure has dropped 2.3 percentage points in the past<br />

year.<br />

Walmart is second to grocery in loss of weekly trip<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

Supermarkets<br />

Walmart/Walmart<br />

Supercenter<br />

Drug stores<br />

Value discounters/dollar<br />

stores<br />

Target/SuperTarget<br />

Warehouse clubs<br />

Kmart/Big Kmart/Kmart<br />

Super Center<br />

Figure 2: Weekly Shoppers of Format/<strong>Retail</strong>er<br />

5%<br />

4%<br />

5%<br />

4%<br />

3%<br />

9%<br />

8%<br />

9%<br />

7%<br />

7%<br />

11%<br />

10%<br />

11%<br />

12%<br />

12%<br />

16%<br />

14%<br />

15%<br />

14%<br />

16%<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® October 2007–2011<br />

24%<br />

21%<br />

21%<br />

19%<br />

21%<br />

- 13 -<br />

Walmart Watch: Declining Shopping Frequency<br />

shoppers; the percentage of shoppers making weekly<br />

trips to Walmart decreased by 1.4 percentage points.<br />

Kmart and club channel retailers also experienced a<br />

decrease in shoppers making weekly trips, while the<br />

weekly Target shopper base held steady.<br />

Dollar and drug channels saw an increase in the<br />

percentage of shoppers making weekly trips—<br />

indicating that there is some transferring of trips<br />

occurring.<br />

34%<br />

33%<br />

33%<br />

32%<br />

31%<br />

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

52%<br />

49%<br />

50%<br />

50%<br />

48%<br />

Ppt Change<br />

2010-11<br />

-2.3<br />

-1.4<br />

+1.8<br />

+1.8<br />

+0.1<br />

-0.4<br />

-1.0


However, 36% of shoppers who say that they are shopping<br />

Walmart less compared to a year ago do claim that they<br />

are just shopping less overall, and are not necessarily<br />

transferring their Walmart trips to another retailer (Figure<br />

3).<br />

This still means that more than half of shoppers who are<br />

shopping Walmart less are shopping somewhere else.<br />

21% of shoppers who are shopping Walmart less say<br />

that they are shopping conventional supermarkets<br />

more instead.<br />

Target also is winning trips from Walmart, with 19% of<br />

shoppers saying they are shopping Target more.<br />

Walgreens, Dollar General, Family Dollar, and other<br />

dollar stores all gain more or less equal percentages<br />

of Walmart defectors (just under 10% each).<br />

This, combined with the fact that shoppers are shopping<br />

supermarkets more, indicates that shoppers are no longer<br />

as attracted by the “one-stop shopping” appeal of Walmart<br />

and are likely splitting their trips: using supermarkets for<br />

certain grocery necessities, and then shopping around<br />

to find a good value on other items on their lists. The<br />

growth of dollar store’s weekly shopper base supports the<br />

prevalence of deal seeking in the shopper landscape.<br />

Importance of Value: Walmart Shoppers<br />

Divert to Dollar Channel<br />

Among those shopping Walmart less, there are some key<br />

differences in leakage across income groups (Figure 4).<br />

Just over one-quarter (26%) of higher-income Walmart<br />

shoppers state that they are now shopping Target more<br />

often than Walmart—a significantly higher percentage<br />

compared to low or middle-income shoppers. Downmarket<br />

shoppers, however, are converting Walmart trips<br />

to dollar channel trips. Significantly higher percentages of<br />

down-market shoppers say that they are shopping Dollar<br />

General (19%) or Family Dollar (19%) more now instead of<br />

Walmart.<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

- 14 -<br />

Walmart Watch: Declining Shopping Frequency<br />

Figure 3: Where Shoppers Are Shopping Instead of Walmart<br />

(Among those who are shopping Walmart/Walmart<br />

Supercenter less compared with a year ago)<br />

Just shopping less<br />

overall<br />

Conventional<br />

supermarket<br />

Target/SuperTarget<br />

Walgreens<br />

Dollar General<br />

Family Dollar<br />

Other dollar store<br />

9%<br />

9%<br />

8%<br />

8%<br />

19%<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , May 2011<br />

21%<br />

36%<br />

Figure 4: Top <strong>Retail</strong>ers Shopping More Often Instead of<br />

Walmart, by Household Income<br />

Total<br />

Down Middle<br />

Market Market Up<br />

(Less than ($25K– Market<br />

$25K) $84.9K) ($85K+)<br />

(a) (b) (c)<br />

Conventional supermarket 21% 18% 23% 22%<br />

a b<br />

Target or SuperTarget 19% 14% 18% 26%<br />

Walgreens 9% 11% 8% 8%<br />

b c<br />

Dollar General 9% 19%<br />

b c<br />

Family Dollar 8% 19%<br />

Other dollar store (i.e., not Dollar<br />

General or Family Dollar)<br />

8% 11% c<br />

5% 2%<br />

4% 4%<br />

8% 4%<br />

CVS/pharmacy 7% 9% 7% 6%<br />

Limited assortment/cut-price<br />

supermarket<br />

b c<br />

6% 10%<br />

5% 4%<br />

Costco 5% 2% 6% 10% a<br />

Sam's Club 4% 2% 4% 5%<br />

Amazon.com 4% 2% 4% 7% a<br />

Not shopping any retailers more<br />

often, just shopping less overall<br />

36% 38% 39% c<br />

29%<br />

Note: Bolding/highlighting indicates significantly greater than Total;superscript<br />

letters indicate significant difference between income groups (95% confidence<br />

level)<br />

“Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® May 2011


In fact, dollar stores prove to be an increasingly popular<br />

destination among Walmart shoppers in general<br />

(Figure 5). The percentage of monthly Walmart shoppers<br />

shopping the dollar channel in any given four-week period<br />

has risen overall from since August 2010, with a notable<br />

spike during 2010’s holiday shopping season.<br />

This cross-shopping percentage has increased<br />

significantly for the channel as a whole from 2010–2011, as<br />

well as individual small-format value retailers (Figure 6).<br />

Additionally:<br />

The percentage of Walmart shoppers cross-shopping<br />

online retailers has increased significantly—most<br />

notably Amazon (42% of monthly Walmart shoppers,<br />

up from 34% last year), and, to a lesser extent, eBay.<br />

com (24% of Walmart shoppers).<br />

JCPenney, Kmart, and Macy’s also gained Walmart<br />

shoppers from 2010–2011.<br />

59%<br />

34%<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

40% 41%<br />

31% 32% 32% 29% 29% 28% 28%<br />

- 15 -<br />

Walmart Watch: Declining Shopping Frequency<br />

Figure 5: Percentage of Monthly Walmart/Walmart<br />

Supercenter Shoppers Who Shopped Dollar Stores<br />

during Past Four Weeks<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® August 2010-October 2011<br />

61% 22% 22% 22%<br />

42% 41% 20% 18% 17% 18%<br />

40% 17% 17% 16%<br />

33% 32% 31% 31% 31% 30% 30%<br />

24% 22% 22% 21% 20% 19% 19% 19% 18% 17% 15%<br />

Dollar Channel<br />

Figure 6: Top <strong>Retail</strong>ers Shopped in the Past 4 Weeks by Monthly Walmart/Walmart Supercenter Shoppers<br />

Amazon.com<br />

Walgreens<br />

Target/SuperTarget<br />

JCPenney<br />

Lowe's<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® January-October 2010; January-October 2011<br />

The Home Depot<br />

Dollar Tree<br />

Kohl's<br />

CVS/pharmacy<br />

Dollar General<br />

68%<br />

66%<br />

64%<br />

62%<br />

60%<br />

58%<br />

56%<br />

54%<br />

52%<br />

eBay.com<br />

Best Buy<br />

Sam's Club<br />

Family Dollar<br />

Kmart/Big Kmart<br />

Netflix<br />

Macy's<br />

Barnes & Noble<br />

2010<br />

2011<br />

Staples<br />

Sears<br />

Big Lots


Value seems to be the driving force in Walmart’s leakage<br />

to dollar. Among Walmart shoppers who also shopped<br />

a dollar store, over half said that their ability to get<br />

individual items for less money as well as a less expensive<br />

basket overall, are very important factors driving them to<br />

shop dollar stores (Figure 7). Convenience also plays a<br />

role here, with just about half of Walmart shoppers rating<br />

dollar stores’ convenient location and quick shopping<br />

experience as very important factors—significantly higher<br />

percentages compared with all dollar store shoppers.<br />

Not only are Walmart shoppers looking for a better<br />

value overall, they also place value on a quick, easy, and<br />

convenient shopping experience—making the Internet<br />

another popular shopping option for Walmart shoppers.<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

- 16 -<br />

One-Stop Shopping … Online: Walmart<br />

Shoppers Make Amazon Part of Their<br />

Regular Routine<br />

In terms of gaining Walmart shoppers year-to-year,<br />

Amazon.com is second to the dollar channel (see Figure<br />

6). The percentage of monthly Walmart shoppers who<br />

shopped Amazon has risen significantly from 34% in 2010<br />

to 42% in 2011. This percentage has increased steadily<br />

overall from February 2007 to October 2011 (Figure 8).<br />

As a result, Amazon is now the retailer most frequently<br />

cross-shopped by regular Walmart shoppers, taking the<br />

top spot from Target in the past year.<br />

Figure 7: % Shoppers Rating Factors as “Very Important” in Causing Them to Shop Dollar Stores<br />

(among shoppers who have shopped a dollar store retailer in the past 4 weeks)<br />

Can get individual items for less money<br />

Less expensive overall<br />

Convenient location<br />

Can get in and out quickly<br />

Best option considering economic situation<br />

Easier to shop<br />

Friendly neighborhood atmosphere<br />

Wide variety of national brands<br />

"Thrill of the hunt"<br />

Limited assortment = less temptation<br />

NOTE: Star indicates significantly higher percentage compared to all shoppers (95% confidence level).<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , May 2011<br />

18%<br />

20%<br />

24%<br />

24%<br />

24%<br />

25%<br />

32%<br />

30%<br />

36%<br />

36%<br />

Walmart Watch: Declining Shopping Frequency<br />

39%<br />

38%<br />

45%<br />

48%<br />

52%<br />

54%<br />

57%<br />

59%<br />

66%<br />

68%<br />

Monthly WM/WMSC Shoppers<br />

All Shoppers


Amazon is especially relevant for younger Walmart<br />

shoppers. Gen Y Walmart shoppers are more likely to<br />

have incorporated Walmart into their weekly shopping<br />

routine: 24% of Gen Y shoppers shop Amazon on a weekly<br />

basis compared with 17% of all Walmart shoppers<br />

(Figure 9). Younger Walmart shoppers also are more<br />

likely to belong to an Amazon loyalty program—such as<br />

Amazon Mom or Amazon Subscribe & Save (Figure 10).<br />

As with the discounter/dollar channel, value is a big factor<br />

in causing Walmart shoppers to shop online overall (not<br />

just Amazon.com). Significantly more Walmart shoppers—<br />

nearly three-quarters—rated the fact that they can get<br />

lower prices on specific items as very important in causing<br />

them to shop or purchase online, compared to all online<br />

shoppers. Walmart shoppers also are more likely to value<br />

the instant replenishment options available online—which<br />

are increasingly popular components of Amazon’s offer<br />

(Figure 11).<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

Figure 9: Amazon Shopping Frequency<br />

68%<br />

33%<br />

18%<br />

17%<br />

72%<br />

27%<br />

21%<br />

24%<br />

All Walmart Shoppers Gen Y Walmart Shoppers<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® July 2011<br />

Less than Once a<br />

month<br />

1–3 times/Month<br />

Weekly<br />

- 17 -<br />

Walmart Watch: Declining Shopping Frequency<br />

Figure 8: Percentage of Monthly Walmart/Walmart<br />

Supercenter Shoppers Who Shopped Amazon.com<br />

during Past Four Weeks<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® February 2007-October 2011<br />

Figure 10: Membership in Amazon.com Programs<br />

Amazon Mom<br />

Subscribe & Save<br />

4%<br />

5%<br />

5%<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® July 2011<br />

10%<br />

Gen Y Walmart<br />

Shoppers<br />

All Walmart Shoppers


© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

- 18 -<br />

Walmart Watch: Declining Shopping Frequency<br />

Figure 11: % Shoppers Rating Factors as “Very Important” in Casuing Them to Shop/Purchase Online<br />

(among shoppers who have shopped online during the past 6 months)<br />

NOTE: Star indicates significantly higher percentage compared to all shoppers (95% confidence level).<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® July 2011<br />

Free shipping<br />

I can get lower prices for specific items I want<br />

Ability to browse at my leisure<br />

Ability to shop any time<br />

Convenience<br />

Enormous variety of products<br />

Free return shipping<br />

Shopping/purchasing online saves time<br />

Availability of good coupons/promotional codes<br />

Availability of customer reviews of products<br />

Tax-free purchases<br />

Shopping/purchasing online is entertaining/fun<br />

Credit card rewards<br />

Site recommends products based on past purchases<br />

Availability of instant replenishment option on products I<br />

purchase regularly<br />

21%<br />

20%<br />

20%<br />

17%<br />

19%<br />

17%<br />

28%<br />

25%<br />

48%<br />

47%<br />

48%<br />

46%<br />

47%<br />

47%<br />

57%<br />

57%<br />

60%<br />

60%<br />

65%<br />

63%<br />

73%<br />

71%<br />

71%<br />

70%<br />

69%<br />

68%<br />

69%<br />

70%<br />

77%<br />

78%<br />

Monthly Walmart /<br />

Walmart Supercenter<br />

Shoppers<br />

All Shoppers


Amazon.com Continues Move Toward Being a Mainstream<br />

Shopping Destination<br />

Amazon’s place as a holiday retail powerhouse is<br />

nothing new: Amazon has been an extremely popular<br />

destination for holiday shopping for several years now.<br />

But for a growing number of shoppers, the online giant is<br />

increasingly a part of regular shopping routines, and will<br />

serve as a major disruptor for an increasing number of<br />

categories in years to come.<br />

59%<br />

56%<br />

53%<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , December 2009, 2010, 2011<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

40%<br />

38%<br />

46%<br />

46% 45%<br />

41%<br />

WMT/WMSC Amazon.com Target/<br />

SuperTarget<br />

Figure 1: Top 10 <strong>Retail</strong>ers Shopped for Holiday Gifts<br />

(among holiday gift shoppers)<br />

33% 33% 33%<br />

31%<br />

29% 30%<br />

- 19 -<br />

Amazon’s dominance during the holiday season is wellestablished.<br />

Among the 35 retailers and channels tracked,<br />

Amazon.com is the only retailer/channel to have grown<br />

its holiday shopper base for both of the past two holiday<br />

seasons. It had been the third most-shopped retailer for gifts<br />

in 2009 and 2010, but as its holiday shopper base grew and<br />

Target’s shrank in 2011, Amazon ended up being the second<br />

most-shopped retailer for holiday gifts in 2011.<br />

23%<br />

14%<br />

Kohl’s JCPenney Small-format<br />

value stores<br />

2009 2010 2011<br />

29%<br />

26% 25%<br />

23%<br />

26% 25% 25%<br />

23% 22% 23% 22% 22%<br />

Best Buy Toys "R" Us Macy’s Other online-only<br />

retailers


Having just had its best holiday season ever, as Amazon<br />

continues to leverage its online and digital strengths (such<br />

as enticing shoppers to collect brick-and-mortar pricing<br />

information using its Price Check app) to get even smarter<br />

about its shoppers, it is poised to embed itself in shopping<br />

patterns year-round.<br />

Because of its role as a key holiday shopping destination,<br />

Amazon has become a major threat in key categories. For<br />

instance, about one-third of toy shoppers at major mass<br />

and toy retailers reported having also shopped Amazon.<br />

com for toys during the previous six months (Figure 2). In<br />

fact, many more toy shoppers of multichannel retailers<br />

report cross-shopping Amazon.com for toys than report<br />

shopping that multi-channel retailer’s Web site.<br />

Amazon is moving well beyond serving as just a holiday<br />

shopping destination that lures shoppers with deep<br />

discounts and in-stock positions on hot gifts. Increasingly,<br />

Amazon is becoming part of shoppers’ routines throughout<br />

the year. The percentage of shoppers who report having<br />

shopped Amazon.com on a recent basis has risen steadily<br />

since January 2007 (Figure 3).<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

Amazon.com Continues Move Toward Being a Mainstream Shopping Destination<br />

Figure 2: Cross-Shopping Web Destinations for Toys Among In-Store Toy Shoppers<br />

Walmart/<br />

WMSC<br />

Store<br />

Target/<br />

SuperTarget<br />

store<br />

Kmart<br />

store<br />

Note: Blue highlighted cells show the percent of a retailer’s in-store toy shopper who cross-shopped that retailer’s Web site<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , March 2011<br />

- 20 -<br />

Figure 3: Amazon.com Past Four-Week Shopping Incidence<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , January 2007-November 2011<br />

Toys<br />

"R" Us<br />

store<br />

Babies<br />

"R" Us<br />

store<br />

Dollar<br />

General<br />

Family<br />

Dollar<br />

Amazon.com 27% 36% 33% 35% 34% 33% 33% 48%<br />

Walmart.com 17% 20% 29% 19% 23% 26% 21% 26%<br />

Target.com 13% 18% 23% 17% 24% 17% 19% 27%<br />

ToysRus.com 11% 17% 20% 20% 22% 12% 13% 19%<br />

eBay.com 11% 11% 15% 10% 10% 22% 17% 25%<br />

Kmart.com 5% 7% 19% 7% 10% 10% 14% 11%<br />

Other toy Web site 4% 6% 7% 5% 6% 4% 6% 9%<br />

BabiesRus.com 1% 3% 5% 3% 19% 3% 2% 3%<br />

eToys.com 1% 1% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3%<br />

diapers.com 1% 1% 1% 1% 7% 1% 0% 1%<br />

60%<br />

50%<br />

40%<br />

30%<br />

20%<br />

10%<br />

0%<br />

28%<br />

Jan-07<br />

Apr-07<br />

Jul-07<br />

Oct-07<br />

Jan-08<br />

Apr-08<br />

Jul-08<br />

Oct-08<br />

Jan-09<br />

Apr-09<br />

Jul-09<br />

Oct-09<br />

Jan-10<br />

Apr-10<br />

Jul-10<br />

Oct-10<br />

Jan-11<br />

Apr-11<br />

Jul-11<br />

Oct-11<br />

45%<br />

Drug<br />

stores


In fact, Amazon.com is the only retailer among the<br />

200+ tracked by ShopperScape ® to enjoy such a<br />

relentless increase in its shopper base over this time<br />

period.<br />

Note the small dip—and nearly instantaneous<br />

recovery—in Amazon.com’s shopping incidence in<br />

October 2008 at the peak of the financial crisis on Wall<br />

Street.<br />

Nearly three-quarters (72%) of all shoppers report that<br />

they shop Amazon.com, while just over one-third (36%) say<br />

they shop the online retailer on at least a monthly basis<br />

(Figure 4).<br />

Amazon’s shopper penetration is highest among<br />

younger shoppers: nearly eight in 10 Gen X shoppers<br />

report shopping Amazon.com with some frequency,<br />

while over one-half (53%) of Gen Y shoppers say they<br />

shop the online retailer on at least a monthly basis.<br />

Over one-quarter (27%) of Gen Y shoppers shop<br />

Amazon.com on a weekly basis!<br />

While Amazon may still be somewhat of a novelty to many<br />

older shoppers, younger shoppers have “grown up” with<br />

the online retailer. As these younger shoppers begin to<br />

enter the household formation and accumulation stages of<br />

Total<br />

Shopper<br />

Base<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

Figure 4: Amazon.com Shopping Frequency<br />

by Generational Cohort<br />

72% 78% 79% 72% 58%<br />

36%<br />

19%<br />

17%<br />

All<br />

Shoppers<br />

26%<br />

26%<br />

27%<br />

21%<br />

22%<br />

Note: Total Shopper Base = percent of shoppers who say they shop Amazon.com<br />

less than once a month or more frequently<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , July 2011<br />

36%<br />

Amazon.com Continues Move Toward Being a Mainstream Shopping Destination<br />

39%<br />

18%<br />

15%<br />

Gen Y Gen X Baby<br />

Boomers<br />

Weekly Monthly Less than once a month<br />

36%<br />

12%<br />

9%<br />

Seniors<br />

- 21 -<br />

Figure 5: Gen Y’s Shopping Frequency at Key <strong>Retail</strong>ers<br />

Total<br />

Shopper<br />

Base<br />

90% 80% 78% 69%<br />

23%<br />

26%<br />

41%<br />

Walmart/<br />

Walmart<br />

Supercenter<br />

28% 26%<br />

15%<br />

29% 26% 24%<br />

23% 27% 30%<br />

Target/<br />

SuperTarget<br />

Amazon.com Conventional<br />

Supermarkets<br />

Weekly Monthly Less than once a month<br />

Note: Total Shopper Base = percent of shoppers who say they shop Amazon.com<br />

less than once a month or more frequently<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , July 2011<br />

their lives, Amazon will continue to play a prominent role.<br />

To better understand just how important Amazon is to Gen<br />

Y shoppers, a comparison of Gen Y shoppers’ shopping<br />

frequency of the online giant compared with major mass<br />

players is revealing (Figure 5).<br />

The vast majority (90%) of Gen Y shoppers shop<br />

at Walmart, but Amazon.com is not far behind the<br />

world’s largest retailer.<br />

About two-thirds (67%) of Gen Y shoppers say they<br />

shop Walmart on at least a monthly basis, while just<br />

over one-half (53%) of those shoppers report shopping<br />

Amazon at least monthly.<br />

Amazon is neck-and-neck with Target in terms of<br />

attracting Gen Y shoppers, and Amazon actually<br />

edges Target in terms of drawing these shoppers on a<br />

monthly basis.<br />

More Gen Y shoppers shop Amazon.com than shop at<br />

conventional supermarkets.<br />

The wealth of young shoppers who turn to Amazon on a<br />

regular basis is further reflected in Amazon’s shopper<br />

profile, which skews toward younger and more affluent<br />

shoppers (Figure 6).


No retailer is immune from Amazon, and retailers should<br />

assume that most of their shoppers are visiting Amazon.<br />

com, even if only to check prices or read reviews (Figure 7).<br />

Among mass retailers, Target and Costco share the<br />

highest percentage of their core monthly shoppers<br />

with Amazon (82%). About one-quarter of each of<br />

those shopper bases shops Amazon on a weekly basis.<br />

Monthly shoppers of apparel retailers are also very<br />

likely to be Amazon shoppers: well over one-half of<br />

Macy’s and Kohl’s monthly shoppers (and Nordstrom’s<br />

past four-week shoppers) also are monthly Amazon<br />

shoppers.<br />

Specialty retailer Toys “R” Us is especially vulnerable<br />

to Amazon, with 85% of its core monthly shoppers<br />

cross-shopping the online giant.<br />

Amazon’s loyalty programs (Amazon Mom, Subscribe &<br />

Save, and Prime) will only help to solidify its place as a<br />

cornerstone of shopping routines, further moving Amazon<br />

away from a once-a-year holiday shopping destination.<br />

Total<br />

Shopper<br />

Base<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

- 22 -<br />

Figure 6: Demographic Profile of Amazon.com Shoppers<br />

All<br />

Shoppers<br />

Amazon.com<br />

Past<br />

4-Week<br />

Shoppers<br />

Monthly<br />

Shoppers<br />

Age 18 –24 6% 6% 7%<br />

25 –34 17% 21% 22%<br />

35 –44 19% 21% 20%<br />

45 –54 21% 21% 21%<br />

55 –64 17% 16% 16%<br />

65+ 20% 14% 14%<br />

Income < $25,000 25% 19% 18%<br />

Presence<br />

of Children<br />

$25,000–$49,999 25% 23% 22%<br />

$50,000 –$74,999 18% 19% 19%<br />

$75,000 –$99,999 12% 14% 14%<br />

$100,000+ 20% 25% 26%<br />

Children under 19<br />

at home<br />

No children<br />

under 19 at home<br />

25% 28% 27%<br />

75% 72% 73%<br />

Note: Bolding/highlighting indicates significantly greater than all shoppers<br />

(95% confidence level)<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , January-November 2011<br />

Figure 7: Amazon.com Shopping Frequency among Monthly Shoppers of Select <strong>Retail</strong>ers<br />

72% 82% 69% 76% 74% 82% 74% 73% 82% 81% 86% 85%<br />

36%<br />

19%<br />

17%<br />

32%<br />

25%<br />

24%<br />

33%<br />

18%<br />

All Target/ Walmart/<br />

Shoppers SuperTarget WMSC<br />

Amazon.com Continues Move Toward Being a Mainstream Shopping Destination<br />

33%<br />

23% 19% 20% 21%<br />

17% 21% 22% 23% 22% 21%<br />

32% 28%<br />

Note: Total Shopper Base = percent of shoppers who say they shop Amazon.com less than once a month or more frequently<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , July 2011<br />

33%<br />

39%<br />

31%<br />

CVS Walgreens Costco Sam’s<br />

Club<br />

35%<br />

18%<br />

Weekly Monthly Less than once a month<br />

29% 31%<br />

22%<br />

22%<br />

31%<br />

22%<br />

33%<br />

14%<br />

16%<br />

55%<br />

Kroger Macy’s Kohl’s Nordstrom* Toys “R”<br />

Us


Despite the relative newness of Amazon Mom and<br />

Subscribe & Save, both programs are gaining traction,<br />

especially among key demographic groups<br />

(Figure 8). Membership in these programs has the<br />

potential to dramatically change the nature of trips to<br />

mass and grocery retailers, as shoppers satisfy some<br />

of their core baby and household essentials needs via<br />

Amazon.<br />

Overall, about 5% of shoppers are members of<br />

Amazon Mom and/or Subscribe & Save. Monthly<br />

Amazon.com shoppers are significantly more<br />

likely than average to be members of each of those<br />

programs.<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

Amazon.com Continues Move Toward Being a Mainstream Shopping Destination<br />

- 23 -<br />

Monthly Target shoppers are significantly more likely<br />

than the average shopper to be members of Amazon<br />

Mom, which might drastically affect the way those<br />

moms shop Target on a typical trip.<br />

Membership in both of the Amazon programs is<br />

especially high among two key demographic groups:<br />

Gen Y moms (who are just starting their household<br />

formation and accumulation years) and affluent Gen<br />

X-ers (who have substantial shopping lists requiring<br />

a wide variety of goods to fill and high spending<br />

potential). Participation in Amazon Mom and<br />

Subscribe & Save helps to ingrain Amazon into those<br />

shoppers’ shopping routines, and will shape their<br />

shopping habits and retail expectations going forward.<br />

Figure 8: Membership in Amazon Programs, among Monthly Shoppers of Key <strong>Retail</strong>ers and Key Demographic Groups<br />

All<br />

Shoppers Amazon.com<br />

Shopped Monthly at <strong>Retail</strong>er<br />

Target/<br />

SuperTarget<br />

Note: Bolding/highlighting indicates significantly greater than all shoppers (95% confidence level)<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , July 2011<br />

Walmart/<br />

Walmart<br />

Supercenter<br />

Gen Y<br />

Moms<br />

Affluent Gen<br />

X (Annual HH<br />

Income $85k+)<br />

Sample Size 4061 815 1058 2154 132 429<br />

Amazon Mom 4% 11% 6% 4% 20% 12%<br />

Amazon Subscribe & Save 5% 13% 6% 5% 16% 7%<br />

BOTH Amazon Mom and Subscribe & Save 2% 6% 3% 2% 11% 4%<br />

Neither of these 93% 82% 91% 93% 76% 86%


Online Shopping: The New General Store<br />

It is often assumed that shoppers shop and purchase<br />

online because they tend to be disproportionately<br />

motivated by either saving money or saving time. Despite<br />

this conventional thinking, ShopperScape ® data show that<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , July 2011<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

- 24 -<br />

the reasons shoppers give for shopping and purchasing<br />

online reflect a strong orientation toward both value and<br />

convenience (Figure 1). Marketers selling online will need<br />

to meet both requirements.<br />

Figure 1: Reasons for Shopping Online<br />

(Among online shoppers; percentage rating as “very important”)<br />

Free shipping<br />

Lower prices for items I want<br />

Convenience<br />

Can browse at leisure/no pressure from sales people<br />

Can shop any time day or night<br />

Large variety of products means I can get what I want<br />

Free return shipping<br />

Saves time<br />

Tax-free purchases<br />

Availability of good coupons/promotional codes<br />

Availability of customer reviews<br />

Shopping/purchasing online is entertaining/fun<br />

Credit card rewards<br />

Availability of instant replenishment option<br />

Get relevant recommendations based on past purchasing<br />

17%<br />

17%<br />

20%<br />

25%<br />

47%<br />

47%<br />

46%<br />

57%<br />

60%<br />

63%<br />

71%<br />

70%<br />

70%<br />

68%<br />

78%


Value-oriented reasons top the list in terms of the percent<br />

of shoppers who indicate they are “very important”<br />

reasons to shop online: over three-quarters of online<br />

shoppers (78%) cite free shipping, followed by 71% citing<br />

low prices. The next three reasons for shopping and<br />

purchasing online all have to do with ease of shopping:<br />

convenience (70%), the ability to browse at one’s leisure<br />

with no pressure from sales people (70%), and the ability<br />

to shop any time of day or night (68%).<br />

One-quarter (25%) of online shoppers say the<br />

entertainment aspect of online shopping is very important.<br />

Younger shoppers’ evaluation of what is “very important”<br />

to them as online shoppers points to a shopper base that<br />

has differentiated priorities vs. all shoppers (Figure 2).<br />

Shoppers in the Gen Y cohort are significantly more likely<br />

to value the social and fun aspects of shopping online.<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

- 25 -<br />

They also are more inclined to seek out discounts, and<br />

the appeal of instant replenishment options (e.g., Amazon<br />

Subscribe & Save) is highest among shoppers in this<br />

group. Consequently, expect shoppers in this generational<br />

cohort to have higher expectations for the online shopping<br />

experience, as well as different demands on their store<br />

shopping experiences as they transition some of their<br />

consumables purchasing to online retailers who can<br />

deliver goods on a pre-determined, scheduled basis.<br />

Gen X shoppers, in a reflection of their life stage—i.e.,<br />

smack in the middle of time-starved and financially<br />

constrained family formation years—are perhaps the<br />

most demanding shoppers. Eight of 15 possible reasons<br />

for shopping online—everything from price and time<br />

savings to selection/variety—are more important to these<br />

shoppers than all shoppers.<br />

Figure 2: Reasons for Shopping Online, by Generational Cohort<br />

(Among online shoppers; percentage rating as “very important”)<br />

Generational Cohort<br />

All Shoppers Gen Y Gen X Boomers Seniors<br />

Sample Size 2639 344 859 976 460<br />

Free shipping 78% 76% 80% 79% 75%<br />

Lower prices for items I want 71% 73% 76% 74% 56%<br />

Convenience 70% 67% 72% 71% 64%<br />

Can browse at leisure/no pressure from sales people 70% 66% 73% 72% 64%<br />

Can shop any time day or night 68% 69% 73% 69% 58%<br />

Large variety of products means I can get what I want 63% 64% 66% 64% 56%<br />

Free return shipping 60% 54% 61% 62% 60%<br />

Saves time 57% 50% 62% 60% 48%<br />

Availability of good coupons/promotional codes 47% 55% 54% 44% 31%<br />

Tax-free purchases 47% 48% 44% 50% 43%<br />

Availability of customer reviews 46% 55% 53% 42% 38%<br />

Shopping/purchasing online is entertaining/fun 25% 42% 31% 20% 13%<br />

Credit card rewards 20% 19% 23% 18% 17%<br />

Get relevant recommendations based on past purchasing 17% 31% 19% 13% 12%<br />

Availability of instant replenishment option 17% 23% 21% 14% 13%<br />

Shading indicates shoppers in generational cohort significantly more likely than all shoppers to rate reason as a “very important” reason to shop online (95%<br />

confidence level)<br />

Boxing indicates shoppers in generational cohort significantly less likely than all shoppers to rate reason as a “very important” reason to shop online (95%<br />

confidence level)<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , July 2011<br />

Online Shopping: The New General Store


Women’s apparel is the most common product shopped<br />

for online (28%), followed by books and women’s shoes.<br />

Fourth on the list is the consumables category with the<br />

largest shopper base—beauty/skin care products (15%).<br />

Otherwise, online grocery shopping remains more the<br />

exception than the norm: fewer than 5% of shoppers<br />

report having shopped for food or non-edible household<br />

essentials online during the past six months (Figure 3).<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

- 26 -<br />

The top five categories with the highest shopper bases<br />

also have the largest purchaser bases—plus the e-book<br />

category is a top-five category in terms of the size of its<br />

purchaser base. However, when calculating conversion<br />

rates (i.e., what percent of those who shopped the category<br />

online made an online purchase in the category), two<br />

categories with smaller shopper and purchaser bases end<br />

up on the top five list: prescription drugs and over-thecounter<br />

drugs/vitamins.<br />

Figure 3: Past Six-Month Online Shopping and Purchasing: All Shoppers<br />

Shopped Purchased Conversion*<br />

Women's apparel 28% 18% 62%<br />

Hardcover/paperback books 21% 15% 72%<br />

Women's shoes 19% 9% 46%<br />

Beauty/skin care products 15% 9% 60%<br />

DVD/Blu-ray movies 15% 9% 61%<br />

CE (not computers) 13% 5% 37%<br />

E-books 12% 10% 77%<br />

Laptop/desktop/netbook computer 11% 4% 32%<br />

OTC drugs/vitamins 10% 6% 61%<br />

Men's apparel 10% 6% 56%<br />

Furniture 9% 3% 30%<br />

Video games 9% 5% 55%<br />

Prescription drugs 9% 6% 75%<br />

Pet food/supplies 8% 4% 54%<br />

Toys/dolls/games 8% 4% 55%<br />

Infants/toddlers/kids apparel 8% 4% 54%<br />

School/home office supplies 7% 3% 43%<br />

Small housewares 7% 3% 38%<br />

Personal care products 7% 4% 55%<br />

Men's shoes 7% 3% 40%<br />

Tablet computer 6% 1% 19%<br />

Toddlers/kids shoes 6% 2% 42%<br />

Home textiles 5% 2% 38%<br />

Building products 5% 1% 24%<br />

Baby supplies 5% 3% 56%<br />

Shelf-stable/non-perishable food 4% 2% 55%<br />

HH cleaning products 4% 2% 46%<br />

Hand/power tools 4% 1% 33%<br />

Fresh food 4% 1% 39%<br />

HH paper products 3% 2% 51%<br />

Note: Top 5 categories are outlined in each column.<br />

* Calcluated as % purchased/% shopped<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , July 2011<br />

Online Shopping: The New General Store


Mapping the categories by shopper base and conversion<br />

rate shows that just a handful of categories have created<br />

a regular, sizable online purchaser base (Figure 4).<br />

Categories in the upper-right quadrant (women’s apparel/<br />

shoes, HBC, hard copy and e-books, DVD/Blu-ray movies,<br />

and men’s apparel) are “high shop, high purchase”<br />

categories: a higher-than-average percentage of shoppers<br />

shop for these products online, and a higher-than-average<br />

percentage of shoppers ultimately purchase those<br />

products online.<br />

Consumer electronics appear to be the most<br />

“browsed for” product online (among those tracked in<br />

ShopperScape ® ). About 13% of shoppers have shopped for<br />

the category online in the past six months, but only about<br />

Percentage of Online Shoppers Who Purchased Online<br />

© 2012 <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong><br />

75%<br />

65%<br />

55%<br />

45%<br />

35%<br />

25%<br />

15%<br />

Figure 4: Online Shopping and Purchasing by Category<br />

Video games<br />

DVDs/Blu-ray movies<br />

Baby supplies<br />

Men's apparel/shoes<br />

Non-food grocery items<br />

Toys/dolls/games<br />

Infants/toddlers/kids apparel<br />

Food grocery items<br />

School/home office supplies<br />

Tablet computer<br />

Prescription drugs<br />

Homegoods<br />

Furniture<br />

E-books<br />

Consumer electronics<br />

- 27 -<br />

5% of shoppers actually made a consumer electronics<br />

purchase online, for a “conversion rate” of 37%. Of<br />

course, given the often long research cycle associated<br />

with these purchases, many of the recent category<br />

shoppers may ultimately end up purchasing online. <strong>Kantar</strong><br />

<strong>Retail</strong> forecasts that 25% of all sales in the category will<br />

come through online channels in 2017.<br />

Categories in the upper-left quadrant—prescription<br />

drugs in particular—are those for which a relatively small<br />

number of shoppers shop online, but a high percentage<br />

of those shoppers make a purchase online. Conversion<br />

is high because these categories lend themselves to very<br />

focused, mission-oriented shopping trips.<br />

Laptop/desktop/netbook computer<br />

Hardcover/paperback books<br />

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%<br />

Source: <strong>Kantar</strong> <strong>Retail</strong> ShopperScape ® , July 2011<br />

HBC<br />

Percentage Shopped for Product Online in Past 6 Months<br />

Online Shopping: The New General Store<br />

Women's apparel/shoes


<strong>Kantar</strong><strong>Retail</strong><strong>iQ</strong>.com / <strong>Kantar</strong><strong>Retail</strong><strong>iQ</strong>.eu / <strong>Kantar</strong><strong>Retail</strong><strong>iQ</strong>.cn<br />

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