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o restricted sample size, related to high number of drop-outs, or to
unexpected statistics on adopters and nonadopters;
o civil unrest that limit field surveys;
o natural calamities such as drought, floods, and earthquakes that
hamper field work and distort data (e.g., price);
o complexities of allocation of land to crops (e.g.? the third-season crop
in Bangladesh is divided into several plots of different crops, has
mixed crops per plot, and has different crop mixtures per plot); and
o changes in cropping systems during the course of the study, which
amounted to an unanticipated induced technological change (private
sector).
Scope of methodolog for future impact studies on farming systems research
The issue of matching the scope of future impact study objectives to time and
resources was examined. Agreement was reached on the following few additional
points:
o The need for a restatement of the value of forms of ex-ante analysis.
These might include partial budgeting with explicit assumptions with
regard to the impact of new technology on adoption, yields, projected
costs, and prices. These assumptions can be made with transferable
baseline data or, if necessary, with educated guesses. Sensitivity analysis
may be added. Other sources are rapid rural appraisal and the use of
secondary sources of data.
o The need for concurrent development of methodology to fulfil1 the needs
created by designation of hypotheses and objectives. This process was
exemplified by the Sri Lanka study, hamstrung though it was in
application.
o The need to give serious consideration to the incorporation of additional
assessments. These include equity and gender consequences at the
household level, the sustainability of benefits of technological adoption,
and macro impacts (e.g., net capital flows and changes in input flows to
the industry concerned).