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was considerable doubt cast, in the absence of any evidence, that resultant income
changes would have a significant impact on the income-dependent variables
originally listed. This was argued on the basis that there was a wide range of other
variables, both short- and long-term, that might frequently relegate the indirect
influence of technological change to an insignificant role. This was not suggested as
an excuse for not attempting these tests. Rather, it was felt that the study of the
interrelationships between income changes with technology and these other
variables was complex and would be a study in itself. It was generally agreed that a
study such as the present one might best be restricted to impact on income levels
and distribution. This should not dampen enthusiasm toward broader aims.
Guideline 2: Objectives should be achievable within the normal limits of time and
project resources.
To achieve all of the original objectives, the projects would have to be expanded in
time, finances, and team size. It might be preferable to confine this type of study to
a single site on a pilot basis to enable methodological alternatives to be tested.
Formulating hypotheses
The discussion on the need to formulate explicit hypotheses for FSR impact studies
was lively. Some argued that setting objectives was sufficient; others argued that
they were implicit in their studies; others said that the objectives were hypotheses.
There was also a view that if hypotheses were established and subsequently rejected
by the analysis, then the studies would lose value. Contrary arguments were put
forward that objectives and hypotheses were not synonymous. Hypotheses, although
difficult to formulate, added great potential value to the studies because they
epitomized mainstream questions. Finally, it was argued that rejection of evide~ce
could often be as valuable as acceptance.
Guideline 3: Future FSR impact studies should formulate explicit important
hypotheses for testing.
Identification of new technologies
The studies showed the difficulties in identifying the newness of the technologies
under study. Some were new in the study locatlon but were not necessarily new
elsewhere. One was not new in time, but it had been recently adapted in various
ways and needed definition. Another found that the composition of the new
technology had evolved under the influence of farmer adaptation in the course of
the 3-year study. Another study involved elements of social differentiation and
evaluation.