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systems research - the IDRC Digital Library - International ...

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Possible time conflict between mungbean and direct seeded rice<br />

Delayed establishment of <strong>the</strong> mungbean crop because of <strong>the</strong> late onset of rains<br />

poses a serious problem for DSR. If <strong>the</strong> onset of <strong>the</strong> rains is delayed until late<br />

May, farmers must make a choice between mungbean and DSR. If mungbean is<br />

to be planted and harvested, <strong>the</strong> rice crop must be transplanted. DSR could not<br />

be established in wet soil because <strong>the</strong> mechanical seeders clogged. However,<br />

TPR faces <strong>the</strong> risk of receiving inadequate rainfall for vegetative growth.<br />

The probability of <strong>the</strong> accumulation of an adequate amount of rain<br />

(75 mm) for crop establishment after <strong>the</strong> onset of <strong>the</strong> rainy season was<br />

determined. If mungbean is planted on 1 Apr, <strong>the</strong> probability of adequate<br />

rainfall is 0.1 (one in 10 years). If mungbean is planted on 21 Apr, <strong>the</strong>re is about<br />

a 0.7 probability of adequate moisture. A cumulative probability of a backward<br />

accumulation of 500 mm of rainfall is necessary for a rice crop (Morris and<br />

Zandstra 1978). Using this criterion and an 85-90 d growing season for<br />

mungbean, DSR planted about 11 Jul has a 0.7 probability of a backward<br />

accumulation of 500 mm of rain.<br />

If farmers decide to keep <strong>the</strong> mungbean crop and choose TPR, <strong>the</strong>y will<br />

encounter several consequences. They will experience a lower probability of<br />

adequate rainfall (50%) and will need rice seedlings for transplanting. Labor<br />

costs for transplanting will also be higher than for DSR.<br />

Currently, farmers in Dok Kham Tai are refining <strong>the</strong>ir knowledge about<br />

<strong>the</strong>se two technologies. If <strong>the</strong>y adopt both mungbean and DSR. They can derive<br />

greater benefits. Adopting any of <strong>the</strong> technologies can directly, or indirectly<br />

improve income by reducing costs.<br />

The probability of 10-d and 15-d dry spells in Dok Kham Tai were<br />

determined using 10-yr 1981-91) rainfall data. The probability of 10-d and<br />

15-d dry spells (< l mm i d) is 0.6 or 6 in 10 yr during late May and mid-June.<br />

Mungbean affected by dry spells had low productiv~ty in Dok Kham Tai.<br />

However, DSR requires a period of dry wea<strong>the</strong>r during seeding. If planted in<br />

mid-June, <strong>the</strong> probability of having dry spells is still high. However, if planted<br />

at <strong>the</strong> end of July, <strong>the</strong> probability drops to about 0.2 (two in 10 yr). It is not<br />

practical to use DSR in August because of <strong>the</strong> probability of 5-d dry spells<br />

(

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