World Development Report 1984

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implied by a simple division of total income by though its effects on monetized savings are small. numbers of people. Indeed, that simple division First, the bulk of monetized household savings in implies, wrongly, that people are the problem. developing countries is produced by relatively few One question is how population growth affects the wealthy families. They tend to have few children, distribution of income within countries, and espe- so their savings are little affected by the burden of cially growth in income of poorer groups (see Box their dependents. In contrast, the majority of fami- 5.2). More generally, the question is whether a lies are poor and save little. Parents have no choice rapid pace of population growth helps or harms but to pay for what their children consume by economic growth. There are several ways popula- reducing their own consumption or by "dissavtion growth can affect economic growth: through ing"-for example, by farming their land more its influence on savings per person, on the amount intensively than can be sustained in the long run. of capital invested per person, and on the effi- If parents have more children than they want, ciency with which the economy operates. their ability to make best use of the resources they TABLE 5.1 Growth of population, GNP, and GNP per capita, 1955-80 (average annual percentage change) Population GNP GNP per capita Country group 1955-70 1970-80 1955-70 1970-80 1955-70 1970-80 All developing countries 2.2 2.2 5.4 5.3 3.1 3.1 Low-income 2.1 2.1 3.7 4.5 1.6 2.4 China 2.0 1.8 3.3 6.0 1.3 4.1 India 2.2 2.1 4.0 3.4 1.8 1.3 Other 2.4 2.7 4.4 2.7 2.0 0.0 Middle-income 2.4 2.4 6.0 5.6 3.5 3.1 Industrial market economies 1.1 0.8 4.7 3.2 3.6 2.4 Europe 0.7 0.2 4.8 2.6 4.1 2.4 Japan 1.0 1.1 10.3 5.4 9.2 4.2 United States 1.4 1.0 3.4 3.1 2.0 2.1 <strong>World</strong>' 1.9 1.9 5.1 3.8 3.1 1.9 a. Includes high-income oil exporters and industrial nonmarket economies. Population growth and private savings do have is harmed. Whether they are restricting investment in their farm, or in their children's edu- A country's savings are generated by households, cation, or in security for their old age, their high businesses, and the public sector. Corporate and fertility contributes to their poverty. But even with government savings do not seem to be related in fewer children, poor parents might not increase any systematic way to variations in population their savings. Instead, they might simply consume growth; governments can, within limits, use fiscal a bit more themselves. and monetary measures to change a country's sav- A second reason for the apparently weak link ings rate, irrespective of demographic conditions. between savings and dependency burdens is that Theory suggests, however, that household sav- banking and credit systems are not well estabings-usually the largest component of domestic lished in developing countries. Poor families (and savings-should be reduced by the high depen- even the not-so-poor) are unlikely to have financial dency burdens associated with rapid population savings that show up in national accounts; they growth. At any given level of output per worker, are more likely to "save" by accumulating land, greater numbers of dependents cause consump- tools, or other assets. Even if families wanted to tion to rise, so savings per capita should fall. save in good times (say, before children are born or Recent empirical studies find only minor support after children are old enough to work) and borrow for this view. But many factors account for the in difficult times, they probably could not without weak link between dependency burdens and sav- paying a steep price in terms of low real interest ings in developing countries; all point to the prob- rates for saving and high rates for borrowing. A ability that high fertility is indeed a burden, third reason, as explained in Chapter 4, is that 82
Box 5.2 Prospects for poverty and population growth, 1980-2000 Hi t. v.ould Ister a decline ,n popula- -;i,ng E:.r.mic proTper art ,o limited income than a;4umtd In the prrulecti-f n.:r. ZT.v ih aielct ihr number k.t pFmr In 1uL.Saharan irnca that Ai prtLIe:iln ms ind a mor. rapid eirminarion ot pci ertx prople in the %eat 2i1Jii' Mani other tco point In- an increase in poi. ert% it tertilit% n imic poltical .nd tticial tactr ini dechlne onaurs oni a; z i the r.ndard addii c.n r,. populaticn -. ill inluence: protection-and cr n that inipliec E t b p h 2 k, ,el; .:-r p)ert% in the ne;t iitteertn .,r' >iderabIe deilint-the nulnTiber FiFIplt? under difrerent tertilih assumphons, b% IBut some 'imple astumpt:.ns alklt dlu- lI. i n r.; pot rr, at th, end it the .:en region ir.iine C'imaiatc, In a t ,.rld Banki srud. turt .ill till in:rta4e b. nearl. tp Sub-Sahajan Atrita iht poor %.er. derined as those tith cent %\ih a rapid aIl in lteriltit theI annual pter :apita in-ime. belom SI3; tin number ci p.-r %-..uld increat,:b It-- rd. iii = dli' c..n;tant lSil dollarsi Ba-ed .:on the rh3n 2ui percent-in tht circumsta3nc- 1 : sij.-dar iI, r.I. .4t. ..lin; e -per*ence or rmank countries prit;cted substanti,l ichici 'inten in-.mile gro.vh in each ot Icnt countries In c-juih and F3as A' a e-- c prine !. 2 ,.L', ipid druid'. &an)e comprtving S0 perc;nt or the p ipulanin China etconomi, pr. -pects art b-telr ;C' cot de.tel,p.ni,- fountries v .ia u-td to ihar u ;amll reduction ir the numbtr .:1 co-nipuit' the change in ,ncome tor th, puttr an be aniipdied e-n assuri,ng Mliddle East. North Attica. - Latin %nmerica pc-irest groups The hnd , e. ere cc.n; the Ii3ndard tertilit% d..lint 1c-T rtl bined , th 11%orld Bank cc.unirn pr-te couid . be r_duced ii alm:-st 41.1 percent pu ti.-n' .t pcpul;tiino grew th to .mulatt ho%-:-eer ntih a rapid tall In tertulltr tuturt shiut; in nccime di'triburtion Groupin4 rt.gether Latin America the ' The e\etrXie 'h-it-ed that the predicted liddJe EU,r and N..rth Aitica-n-here 'raic.- nc. :id 'hare .t inc.:-mt g.--nm to; the poorczt 4 the p-i.nr arc letet th.an in -ia anmd in ti rtdtt. d .dine pere.:eni *-ould hardli :hranee tTrim 14 the re't at A\tTica-rapid ttriliti decline Asia ieludrng Chinat pe,rcient in I%CiO io 15 perce,nt in 'tli0 The could help 1o reduce the number in pc - est.mated number oc poor pe.ople . ould erri ti 70 percent -\ tair China nhere idrd trtlit d..it tall hov.e er becaute ol income cru;ith teriltiti tI atread. 1 tt the number .i ;pid l r..ti. ..-.. lin.: L ,ng th, population ;rv-t.th rart ba'edt p-cr c:.n be expet:ed i:- decline bi Ii, cr a >t.indard derlint in tertiltif berteen .- N., and 1i perettn b. the i,-ar China idte4ribed tn Chapter 4i the number a1t Zi)it. poor in these i-ti...r counrries ituld all The e'er.:- prcbabl. underslates the Ir.n hs i) milit. In mi IQa) t.. 411W Miill-in in eltect ... r r3pid rtrtili . dJcline im reduc.in; 2LhIi.t With J rapid decitne in tentilit- POV-err; *A fastr rtduc:tirn i tertilts Is the number ci-utd be alrost lil mrlicin ikelk n:- be a.-ciated .%ih a narrvv ingl- .tanircL nd wi vten-n-although at 321 milli,cn iiit itould ofi ditterince- in educati.nal mn%-tmert ripd t.-rrIr.L, d-cine still e-;ceed th, ic-tal number ct p,-ple in t '. .ciomic cia,' and an incrt:.-- 1il Banrlade-h. Nigeria and Pakistan toda% in . agem' in relti-,n tti rnt nd p-t Fr r ri--n n .:oamir ...n..i..u..r. eRgno.l ditterences are %eorth emph-a- Thtse mipi' a more equal distributiin . I l poor people may see children themselves as a way Capital widening of "saving" for old age. Although rapid population growth does not seem These reasons explain why high dependency to influence the supply of financial savings, it burdens reduce household savings rates in indus- clearly affects the demand for savings. To maintain trial countries but not in the developing world. In income, capital per person (including "human developing countries, though there is no direct capital," that is, a person's education, health, and link from fertility to household savings, they do skills) must be maintained. And as populations become indirectly linked as development pro- grow, "capital widening" is needed to maintain ceeds. For example, as more women work in the capital per person. But slower population growth modern sector, family savings tend to rise and fer- releases investable resources for "capital-deepentility falls; as urbanization proceeds and financial ing"-that is, increasing capital per person. Of markets improve, monetized savings rise and fer- course, there may be economies of scale in the protility falls. vision of schooling, health, and jobs in factories 83
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
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of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
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Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89: North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105: saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
Page 112 and 113: from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
Page 116 and 117: emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
Page 124 and 125: the education of mothers increases
Page 126 and 127: etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131: effectiveness of existing laws, ins
Page 132 and 133: in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137: Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
Page 138 and 139: few births; to encourage spacing, T
Page 140 and 141: Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143: Box"7.1 Family planning for health
Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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