World Development Report 1984

school places, and public health services, they are population growth itself helps to bring about techmore
likely to be penalized by rapid population nological change: in agricultural societies it may
growth. help spur the development of new farming meth-
The chapter does not treat a reduction in the rate ods needed to maintain per capita output. In earof
population growth as a panacea for develop- lier centuries it may even have helped provide the
ment; macroeconomic and sectoral policies matter minimum population required to support a small
at least as much. But it does show that within most religious or artistic elite.
countries, for any given amount of resources, a But throughout the modern technological era,
slower rate of population growth would help to there is no evidence that a large or rapidly growing
promote economic and social development. population has itself been influential in promoting
new technology. The money and research skills
Differences among countries needed for important advances-the Green Revolution,
for example-are overwhelmingly in the
The implications of population growth differ con- rich countries where population growth is slow. If
siderably among developing countries. Countries anything, these advances have brought laborwhere
education levels are already high, where saving, not labor-using, innovations. Although
much investment in transport and communica- adjustment and technical progress can accompany
tions systems is in place, and where political and population growth, slower population growth
economic systems are relatively stable, are well would permit them to raise average incomes all the
equipped to cope with rapid population growth. faster.
This is true whether or not their natural resources
are limited or their countries already "crowded," Macroeconomic effects of rapid
as in the fast-growing East Asian economies such population growth
as Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and more
recently Malaysia and Thailand. But these tend In a crude arithmetical sense, differences in popualso
to be countries where population growth is lation growth rates since the 1950s have helped to
now slowing. perpetuate international differences in per capita
Countries with untapped natural resources incomes. Between 1955 and 1980, GNP grew at
could in the long run support more people. But about 4 percent a year in the low-income countries.
rapid population growth makes it hard for them to This growth in general produced modest increases
develop the human skills and administrative struc- in income per person (see Table 5.1). However, in
tures that are needed to exploit their resources. In many of the poorest countries-Bangladesh and
Brazil, Ivory Coast, and Zaire, for example, the most of sub-Saharan Africa-economic activity
development of unused land will require large slowed considerably in the 1970s. Coupled with
complementary investments in roads, public ser- rapid (and in some cases, accelerating) population
vices, and drainage and other agricultural infra- growth, this economic slowdown resulted in stagstructure.
Natural resources are not by themselves nating or declining per capita incomes.
sufficient (or even necessary) for sustained eco- In most middle-income countries GNP growth
nomic growth. has been much faster-between 5 and 6 percent a
Where the amount of new land or other exploit- year-so that even with rapid population growth,
able resources is limited-as in Bangladesh, per capita income grew by about 3 percent a year.
Burundi, China, Egypt, India, Java in Indonesia, Industrial countries achieved only sluggish GNP
* Kenya, Malawi, Nepal, and Rwanda-the short- growth during the 1970s, but their low population
run difficulties are more obvious. In some areas growth-1 percent a year or less-meant that their
crop yields are still relatively low, leaving room for increases in per capita income were in general
rapid growth in agricultural production; in others, almost as large as in the high-growth, middlethe
expansion of manufacturing industry could income countries. These increases came on top of
provide exports to pay for extra food imports. But much higher initial incomes, so that the absolute
both solutions require costly investments, devel- gulf between them and the rest of the world widopment
of new institutions, and numerous eco- ened considerably.
nomic and social adjustments-all easier if popula- The middle-income countries have shown that
tion is growing only slowly. rapid population growth can go hand in hand with
In any society, change becomes easier if technol- substantial gains in per capita income. But the
ogy is advancing rapidly. From one point of view, long-run relation is more complex than that
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