World Development Report 1984

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Box 5.1 Consequences of population growth: conflicting views The trad!tioinal I laithusian a.-neerri re ;.urc:~ lrimi! b-~- aus p-.-pulatrii- human it.n., kdge Ptr c~apita nteasurcs that ,i -.. pulation gr .- th il,cn-nr-r 4- *.,r 4rc--.h ir ,Ell br in- the adt.,mtrnr-t hat trIn-L-mt;h,.uli r.-.r bie uj--W r,-. - late:r ran up- ~atr.r he, lIrnrt- .,I hF. *- -ritinuall- put -.1 -tij,~m4da-, T.- . iitt tial the denc-mtnaicr pupI c nrrib- rrth tinii-sr- *.- rtis--urctm I - i' rn. lulain .r.-n- 1.-.n - i Th/. L)II. i'arr Lit . n-_-irhin, t.:. the na,me ratI... r i.-t at Fitt F; Esa. 'ii I P-rq,it.'-1i N airhu; jrkcued t:- ,,r Tin r. utirnate re-- *ur., -:e p.. ir(,. -n-- N.c.r i- p--)pulIat -n . r-:- lh in and 1 That the int,r-rri capacit, --i pc%puIaiiinf pk- -, - ill-i ~pirired and hi-petul pec.- - I oit ni rh-i myanr .:i ur: .-. t na-tura~l -, cr--i - --ŽdJ`r-s t eIJrih - .-wp.:t-. I'- h.-,--h-. --il r.-ti r1--r .- ill-' inJ tn-ac~,- r,- --'rYpr- blems,;-air po-lluti--n i -.. I tAld inra i-n ic-cd b.eia3u-; -t limit;s on i-rn, ittr hert LIf t-enet.r and s-:- d-ec,r dati, .-n e -n i--u-i.. a ailabiit, ILthe'pi-.-f-~ F i, .. uitt. able- land L- nrc -- s- . tiatnM. ,-ir th- here it .-I UE all siraijn-d p-,.pular-m-n r.-. ri-ih ~-e :ntua:Il. tine- -n arguA th:-.t natural rt-c'urc-:t- are iThi, R.ep-r -t her--re ri,t a. thati is ne.ther h-:-pd1,s nr -- -- it'rl.ipt ad~,- r atlint- -. aiE:e and rt;-nc ---d tL lim-ited that c tt 'r-ealtd b, fi-t,: Tuie dilti-ultzit -.ad-d i., rapidi F-ri..: bec CUe- us the: lab- -r t,-rcr p rici andr-ihat pri-:-; -: -- rC arL. p,-pututi--ri r-.-- h are nut prrn.aril - due -par-i -rng rart-:- -4 Labor I.- land rn-:-t riiir-c, .it least nt,'r ., r--t--r- -h iir.t rnaiurai r, -0-u:es ai It-3;t rint I-ad, .. ,rlrrad sr-alkIIr jn.:rena.ryti rh-V n: - --t tlhe Lirat-fitc-d:re te-Ada a - h-A-I. But ntither .1.-inuput p r -.-r r i-.pialari- -rn cr--- I l pr.,Lpk mfpl-si --~-li: --- ci4t-- rip-idrp -put ri-- c-.t tl u--a. ultimatA he:-d b-,rtne i, , - Inri.. r-, I o.etrer:t .-erit ir . iht - arc,urm-nt rtilt tl-n n- 17'kill r ni -l-- -4 tir than14~d thus hor tr t.'h- I--rin, run p-:. puIa ,iv.n -- ali tr2rrr-:naC l -id, an-:' and J .iu.ia Il.. Ii a1r--. thiirdl tpo ~r:.il1. h t n --t n iL- _d Ii - thu,. a - a,lIabtili. . Ii ,I mr---- ih - r-L-iIa prL-bl--n bt-u Ian 1-- h.- a..-muaTi-..t.1-i-i- - -/Isdi ibat o-s-rg:, in-1 ir-erl h, ere--- rhitr-, .pp..-rtunr. CieL-urc,-. r-:nIccl ad . rant an-i ii- ir-:nmrnitl p-:-luti--n and r..- In Ths. d-t,rr;ni . w-p-int ejLh :.,in. rtia'rh~r.- an- diner s,htne rrturn: TI. I Ii- 1-. tl Clb P._m, '',.tnim.I.tIanT Iruih' t,m~ -- f-- tiUi lard ar..l c0 pitai -- tlii, .-e .a.rna r. -eachr-bult a -imulnticin r-tit,: I *:n ur-. lirmit. -init p r ice ha- - n- c -r-:n-uat.:-ll, TFht I nib -1t -t-bI.- i-u it-.. -nap.:- r r. t hat t Ihe r-acn . r-i ehrn -r.ta-d I anLi rthr- n-a * a d n -. i the anal - Ic el . h-ire hich tertlit --ia:harne,, -- -ui I Lii. in- ii-tI- relai-. -r-I i-- n,:.--rn- 5 -utiii hi. L rte-d -an c -nrtriburt t-I, - r 5,rt r lire i- -r *-r,:rcu--e dninsFr.irih r. iu rri, er - rr cI .tcs Ir r-rI ha - tCCEn I ur.ia,in-:tal -.hldr--r. Buyt ' al iruc trY *:--unrr.- irm- himiri:i -upplie- --I -'-ntAl -tructural ch.,,r-~ I r In th balIane.-: e-'a~ , ri--uLirIt Fen4I nc,-iJ.iard --tI I- vn- , a nd I--nt-I-n ppu I-n r a nd It:..ite le r tt-- t' *- ra,p-idP:.r cputa-3 c--i. in-el- ,-r-u -.i p-.llutt--r- - ~~~~~k id 1 iturn.t--cr-h. n., hi In , atch i.--i ti- A it. dti-jw cr--ail IIt-n-- :-nr. - r-rut it- tin n *:ll.e-, lii - ate ib--,. c- are s I7- t itnic'hi b-c -&LI- .- I, I. r-,nir% rhT-, -'-i,tr~-i :.: art ri-:-t r-yii-t1 iI- i i ri-at --- ir---i--e iL-:imaritair. in-:-:-ni .. -- t-- lilt n11-ri; --t LL-ntr-t1I t-. ditc~r-r..:- - ririat ura31 I,n.-i i. r,i:sis i-hclcim:z- th..-udh titecd art '-iPl.i --- .-i Fp-err I -i it rrr m dc .i.i In cc-un.r-r-h-a dt. r-l-~ni, rn.- -a- - bL It 'hat I ,-Vt r- :I -t Iir-t5. I p- -ri. t r _ t... c. r. -. inh I h i .: acrI-ut uti. a .arc-, L .Iri natural1 -n:i--h~ - a flia;i;n j lAm imit _--or -~u n,pin -n I ch n-. lL i:al chang, budit T Ljc J.--- fajtirt Liu tht ur-i.rl-M. f-r -Ii Fra, If:--i. h- na-in-,un- b-at nt- tn-n n-.,-dIl ihrtF,I .itr, e- h rI - nc prn-b.ln. iiI- nc--n-i:- n-i I.-- 1, 0.- I h-.i I, Ji A - tlt l t.ut ni- nti. *iiitiiL iii- m-h 1 futru, ; Th.71 .t-dual-r,. hth-a Cut. -t 'ap"i- IL-n,-n4uin pr-dJu-tr, I -1 l ani A. p,-;pula- t--. i.ght-. -ta-e an-i in that p - Fi E p -p-ulari-_-n- r.. t riian-- inltn-u ee. -- -u 'iii nr nd .---n, ri--I e .--n n-i--dnt.r' ipc-pu1ulatnn AtIth raikc rht rnqu-re.i adi-a:md ni, tL- if ni-i..r ne-rc.aii :i.i.-i -.5t -.-- art-it -iCILI 11 II-.-. -. , dLtnyrir.ail t-.- htiri7.r. -dIarr I r 1tic,uir Nilu-t -t ihr ---rId pi-pu Tit- ha . I.. -- Er r- -api r-.- r.t_ n ihr It- r I i n .-i.-a ne,, - L I1--i an-d 1i- c-- i-- u r h-_I. hr n tii t .:.l -I sr ' n l 1i-ng ranFi:tn-,. ni,--- .di -n -h- I-;i--nc mle I arnlii.- it ihi.-_ [F--. -- din--iist-irie -:an-- intuit C. .itir.r.:ai,v nd litil.- - IrA P-i-.-.- at-.i i.trlie ari ihek athei n tn--ar>- car- c. ~~~~t. -:ritu:-ii I- i-- it: i- a.i r -np-i i--r tie %hIt -- s iiLnt: a-ei dp IeOuti i. r ni- b--Cm: i-a a- r, -,ur-:: I. r- ru n'h~ L -n-i . -I-,h r- -A r ihr. , .ih a rme r.-'t that ra-pidl piualbisi-t .tFIpie riin-1 Fc.ii. rtdIi-- - -n ;rtp.. wt.d -. -atrr r -lep-ri it--nr iL .-ipt rNu.r, - that i - h. ra,pi .-- uIat--flr tI-n . ndl F-.Pee- thr retc.h itr -Ub-iiai - -1 r- ni ,Ill I-- r tFL p-ali.: n r--ih Cre.. I/r- A.4 ill ai ir-. p.m.:nt etrulatire, r.:hr..;l...pLal L~~-hair-L-Thi i.r ihK-. taria tWykr IF.. I- Ilittle du-iU pr--blurf - t.tn.. nnid leads r-:- thL tg- thaith. e- - -cc-n -nc,, er---, tIn pimeet ta th-r-- ir n ,..aI 3 ra ,titL. J-i ar~ ..i IFr,. a -ug V.,: .-pi,t. I aJ an-..: in coping with rapidly growing populations-their discussion of the effects of population growth on efforts to achieve food security, the effects on their countries, this chapter will touch on a theme intronatural resources, the pressures of internal migra- duced in Chapter 4: the implications of high fertiltion and urban growth, and the options that the ity for poor people and for income inequality. international economy provides. Throughout this Because the poor are usually last in line for jobs, 80
school places, and public health services, they are population growth itself helps to bring about techmore likely to be penalized by rapid population nological change: in agricultural societies it may growth. help spur the development of new farming meth- The chapter does not treat a reduction in the rate ods needed to maintain per capita output. In earof population growth as a panacea for develop- lier centuries it may even have helped provide the ment; macroeconomic and sectoral policies matter minimum population required to support a small at least as much. But it does show that within most religious or artistic elite. countries, for any given amount of resources, a But throughout the modern technological era, slower rate of population growth would help to there is no evidence that a large or rapidly growing promote economic and social development. population has itself been influential in promoting new technology. The money and research skills Differences among countries needed for important advances-the Green Revolution, for example-are overwhelmingly in the The implications of population growth differ con- rich countries where population growth is slow. If siderably among developing countries. Countries anything, these advances have brought laborwhere education levels are already high, where saving, not labor-using, innovations. Although much investment in transport and communica- adjustment and technical progress can accompany tions systems is in place, and where political and population growth, slower population growth economic systems are relatively stable, are well would permit them to raise average incomes all the equipped to cope with rapid population growth. faster. This is true whether or not their natural resources are limited or their countries already "crowded," Macroeconomic effects of rapid as in the fast-growing East Asian economies such population growth as Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and more recently Malaysia and Thailand. But these tend In a crude arithmetical sense, differences in popualso to be countries where population growth is lation growth rates since the 1950s have helped to now slowing. perpetuate international differences in per capita Countries with untapped natural resources incomes. Between 1955 and 1980, GNP grew at could in the long run support more people. But about 4 percent a year in the low-income countries. rapid population growth makes it hard for them to This growth in general produced modest increases develop the human skills and administrative struc- in income per person (see Table 5.1). However, in tures that are needed to exploit their resources. In many of the poorest countries-Bangladesh and Brazil, Ivory Coast, and Zaire, for example, the most of sub-Saharan Africa-economic activity development of unused land will require large slowed considerably in the 1970s. Coupled with complementary investments in roads, public ser- rapid (and in some cases, accelerating) population vices, and drainage and other agricultural infra- growth, this economic slowdown resulted in stagstructure. Natural resources are not by themselves nating or declining per capita incomes. sufficient (or even necessary) for sustained eco- In most middle-income countries GNP growth nomic growth. has been much faster-between 5 and 6 percent a Where the amount of new land or other exploit- year-so that even with rapid population growth, able resources is limited-as in Bangladesh, per capita income grew by about 3 percent a year. Burundi, China, Egypt, India, Java in Indonesia, Industrial countries achieved only sluggish GNP * Kenya, Malawi, Nepal, and Rwanda-the short- growth during the 1970s, but their low population run difficulties are more obvious. In some areas growth-1 percent a year or less-meant that their crop yields are still relatively low, leaving room for increases in per capita income were in general rapid growth in agricultural production; in others, almost as large as in the high-growth, middlethe expansion of manufacturing industry could income countries. These increases came on top of provide exports to pay for extra food imports. But much higher initial incomes, so that the absolute both solutions require costly investments, devel- gulf between them and the rest of the world widopment of new institutions, and numerous eco- ened considerably. nomic and social adjustments-all easier if popula- The middle-income countries have shown that tion is growing only slowly. rapid population growth can go hand in hand with In any society, change becomes easier if technol- substantial gains in per capita income. But the ogy is advancing rapidly. From one point of view, long-run relation is more complex than that 81
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
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Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
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Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105: saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
Page 112 and 113: from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
Page 116 and 117: emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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Page 126 and 127: etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131: effectiveness of existing laws, ins
Page 132 and 133: in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137: Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
Page 138 and 139: few births; to encourage spacing, T
Page 140 and 141: Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143: Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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