World Development Report 1984

5 The consequences of rapid population growth
This chapter shows that rapid population are experiencing growth that, by historical standgrowth-at
rates above 2 percent, common in most ards, is faster than that. Even in uncrowded coundeveloping
countries today-acts as a brake on tries, the long-term benefits of having more people
development. Up to a point, population growth must be weighed against the immediate costs of
can be accommodated: in the past three decades coping with rapid growth. In those few countries
many countries have managed to raise average lacking the people to exploit their natural reincome
even as their populations grew rapidly. In sources, immigration from neighboring countries,
that strict sense, population growth has been if politically feasible, would be less costly and more
accommodated. But the goal of development effective than a fast natural rate of population
extends beyond accommodation of an ever larger growth. And the economic success of many small
population; it is to improve people's lives. Rapid countries-Denmark, Hong Kong, Singapore, and
population growth in developing countries has Switzerland-shows that urbanization and trade
resulted in less progress than might have been- provide other means to achieve the scale econolost
opportunities for raising living standards, par- mies of a large population.
ticularly among the large numbers of the world's There are several reasons why population
poor. growth in developing countries is today a greater
The conclusion that rapid population growth has economic burden than it once was in today's
slowed development is by no means straightfor- developed countries:
ward or clearcut (see Box 5.1). Under certain condi- * Population growth is now much more rapid.
tions moderate population growth can be benefi- As Chapter 4 showed, in industrializing Europe it
cial. As Chapter 4 showed, in Europe, Japan, and seldom exceeded 1.5 percent a year, compared
North America economic growth has been accom- with the 2 to 4 percent that most developing counpanied
by moderate population growth, which tries have averaged since World War II.
may have stimulated demand, encouraged techno- * Unlike nineteenth century Europe, large-scale
logical innovation, and reduced investment risks. emigration from today's developing countries is
Moderate labor force growth, combined with extra not possible.
spending on education, can also mean continuous * Compared with Europe, Japan, and North
upgrading of the labor force with better educated America in their periods of fastest population
workers. In sparsely populated countries, faster growth, income in developing countries is still
population growth shortens the time required to low, human and physical capital are less built up,
reach the population size that provides economies and in some countries political and social instituof
scale in transport, communications, social ser- tions are less well established.
vices, and production. Some developing countries * Many developing countries whose economies
could benefit from such economies of scale, espe- are still largely dependent on agriculture can no
cially in rural areas. And a big population can longer draw on large tracts of unused land.
increase a country's economic as well as political This chapter begins by emphasizing that the
and military power; in a world of economic and implications of population growth differ considerpolitical
uncertainty, countries such as India and ably among countries, depending on their current
China can seem to benefit from the sheer size of social, economic, and political conditions. Next it
their domestic markets. reviews how rapid population growth affects the
But these benefits derive from a moderate economy as a whole through savings and investincrease
in population. Most developing countries ment. It then considers the experience of countries
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