World Development Report 1984

More documents

Recommendations

Info

TABLE 4.6 Population size and density in Bangladesh under two fertility assumptions, 1982-2050 2000 2050 Standard Rapid Standard Rapid Indicator 1982 decline decline decline decline Population density Persons per square kilometer 646 1,090 944 2,479 1,472 Rural population per hectare of farmland a 9 13 12 22 9 Population size (millions) Total population 93 157 136 357 212 Urbanb 11 35 30 157 134 Rural 82 122 106 200 78 School-age (5-14 years) 23 43 33 55 30 Working-age (15-64 years) 51 84 85 246 139 Urban and rural population (from the table above) Urban Millions Rural 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 1982 F-- b 2000 Standard declie- ll 2050 Standard __.___. Rapid decline I Rapid decline-{ a. Farmland is defined as arable land plus land under permanent crops; the area is assumed to remain constant throughout the projection period. b. Urban population is assumed to grow at a constant rate of 3 percent a year between 2000 and 2050. Sources: FAO, 1981; <strong>World</strong> Bank data. FIGURE 4.9 the standard projection; because fertility is very high in Kenya and other African countries, it will Brazil's age pyram id, 2020 probably take more than two decades for popula- Age group Male - Female tion growth rates to fall to 2 percent). In the long run many countries may wish to reduce popula- 75+ F, !r.i,l, dIre tion growth to less than 1 percent, already a goal in 70-74 ,r..1 China. But for the next several decades most 65-69 - developing countries will need to make a con- 60-64 55-59 certed effort just to reduce population growth to a rate closer to 1 percent. 50-54 45-49 |. ' 'targets Some countries have chosen to set quantitative based on feasible target declines in mortal- 40-44 1 ' ity and fertility (see Chapter 8). Bangladesh has 39 1 l l already adopted a goal of a total fertility rate of 2.0 35- 30-34 & - in the year 2000, lower than the rate assumed for it under a rapid path of fertility decline. Thailand is 25-29 aiming for a total fertility rate of 2.6 by 1986, and 20-24 Indonesia for a rate of 2.7 by 1990. India is aiming 15-19 for a crude birth rate of 21 per thousand by 1996. 10-14 . The rapid declines in mortality and fertility pro- 5-9 vide only one possible set of goals. They take no 0-4 real account of national differences in the serious- _ - ness of the population problem, or of the social, 78 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 political, and administrative possibilities in dealing Millions with it. These are the subjects of the following chapters.
5 The consequences of rapid population growth This chapter shows that rapid population are experiencing growth that, by historical standgrowth-at rates above 2 percent, common in most ards, is faster than that. Even in uncrowded coundeveloping countries today-acts as a brake on tries, the long-term benefits of having more people development. Up to a point, population growth must be weighed against the immediate costs of can be accommodated: in the past three decades coping with rapid growth. In those few countries many countries have managed to raise average lacking the people to exploit their natural reincome even as their populations grew rapidly. In sources, immigration from neighboring countries, that strict sense, population growth has been if politically feasible, would be less costly and more accommodated. But the goal of development effective than a fast natural rate of population extends beyond accommodation of an ever larger growth. And the economic success of many small population; it is to improve people's lives. Rapid countries-Denmark, Hong Kong, Singapore, and population growth in developing countries has Switzerland-shows that urbanization and trade resulted in less progress than might have been- provide other means to achieve the scale econolost opportunities for raising living standards, par- mies of a large population. ticularly among the large numbers of the world's There are several reasons why population poor. growth in developing countries is today a greater The conclusion that rapid population growth has economic burden than it once was in today's slowed development is by no means straightfor- developed countries: ward or clearcut (see Box 5.1). Under certain condi- * Population growth is now much more rapid. tions moderate population growth can be benefi- As Chapter 4 showed, in industrializing Europe it cial. As Chapter 4 showed, in Europe, Japan, and seldom exceeded 1.5 percent a year, compared North America economic growth has been accom- with the 2 to 4 percent that most developing counpanied by moderate population growth, which tries have averaged since <strong>World</strong> War II. may have stimulated demand, encouraged techno- * Unlike nineteenth century Europe, large-scale logical innovation, and reduced investment risks. emigration from today's developing countries is Moderate labor force growth, combined with extra not possible. spending on education, can also mean continuous * Compared with Europe, Japan, and North upgrading of the labor force with better educated America in their periods of fastest population workers. In sparsely populated countries, faster growth, income in developing countries is still population growth shortens the time required to low, human and physical capital are less built up, reach the population size that provides economies and in some countries political and social instituof scale in transport, communications, social ser- tions are less well established. vices, and production. Some developing countries * Many developing countries whose economies could benefit from such economies of scale, espe- are still largely dependent on agriculture can no cially in rural areas. And a big population can longer draw on large tracts of unused land. increase a country's economic as well as political This chapter begins by emphasizing that the and military power; in a world of economic and implications of population growth differ considerpolitical uncertainty, countries such as India and ably among countries, depending on their current China can seem to benefit from the sheer size of social, economic, and political conditions. Next it their domestic markets. reviews how rapid population growth affects the But these benefits derive from a moderate economy as a whole through savings and investincrease in population. Most developing countries ment. It then considers the experience of countries 79
Page 1:
Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 4 and 5:
Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
Page 6 and 7:
labor markets. And they have a vest
Page 8 and 9:
8 The policy agenda 155 Population
Page 10 and 11:
Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 12 and 13:
Glossary Demographic terms informat
Page 14 and 15:
I I
Page 16 and 17:
countries regain their momentum of
Page 18 and 19:
4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 20 and 21:
example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23:
ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 24 and 25:
etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27:
FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29:
14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31:
TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33:
export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35:
Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37:
TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39:
TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41:
Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
Page 68 and 69: fertility in a changing world is a
Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
Page 82 and 83: largest city in 1950, will not even
Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89: North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105: saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
Page 112 and 113: from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
Page 116 and 117: emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
Page 124 and 125: the education of mothers increases
Page 126 and 127: etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131: effectiveness of existing laws, ins
Page 132 and 133: in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137: Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
Page 138 and 139: few births; to encourage spacing, T
Page 140 and 141: Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143:
Box"7.1 Family planning for health
Page 144 and 145:
FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
Page 146 and 147:
132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
Page 148 and 149:
TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
Page 150 and 151:
TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
Page 152 and 153:
may be delaying a first pregnancy,
Page 154 and 155:
family planning and maternal and ch
Page 156 and 157:
clients may develop can be promptly
Page 158 and 159:
Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
Page 160 and 161:
medical examination was not always
Page 162 and 163:
measuring social acceptability, or
Page 164 and 165:
Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
Page 166 and 167:
costs per user. Public cost per use
Page 168 and 169:
sanguine, however, as soon as one t
Page 170 and 171:
TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
Page 172 and 173:
Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
Page 174 and 175:
FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
Page 176 and 177:
improving the availability of famil
Page 178 and 179:
Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
Page 180 and 181:
Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
Page 182 and 183:
FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
Page 184 and 185:
growth. Fertility has declined in t
Page 186 and 187:
Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
Page 188 and 189:
FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
Page 190 and 191:
able several types of condoms, pill
Page 192 and 193:
housing schemes to parents with onl
Page 194 and 195:
and training, data collection and a
Page 196 and 197:
9 Ten years of experience Much that
Page 198 and 199:
ecause few effective methods are of
Page 200 and 201:
Population data supplement The six
Page 202 and 203:
Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
Page 204 and 205:
190 Births and total fertility =Ice
Page 206 and 207:
Table 1. Population projections Rat
Page 208 and 209:
Table 2. Population composition Low
Page 210 and 211:
Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
Page 212 and 213:
Table 5. Status of women Number enr
Page 214 and 215:
Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
Page 216 and 217:
Bibliographical note This Report ha
Page 218 and 219:
Background papers Note: Source refe
Page 220 and 221:
-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
Page 222 and 223:
I I
Page 224 and 225:
Table 10. Structure of merchandise
Page 226 and 227:
Key In each table, economies are li
Page 228 and 229:
same order is used in all tables. T
Page 230 and 231:
Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
Page 232 and 233:
Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
Page 234 and 235:
Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
Page 236 and 237:
Table 3. Structure of production GD
Page 238 and 239:
Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
Page 240 and 241:
Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
Page 242 and 243:
Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
Page 244 and 245:
Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
Page 246 and 247:
Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
Page 248 and 249:
Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Table 12. Origin and destination of
Page 256 and 257:
Table 13. Origin and destination of
Page 258 and 259:
Table 14. Balance of payments and r
Page 260 and 261:
Table 15. Flow of public and public
Page 262 and 263:
Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265:
Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
Page 266 and 267:
Table 18. Official development assi
Page 268 and 269:
Table 19. Population growth and pro
Page 270 and 271:
Table 20. Demographic and fertility
Page 272 and 273:
Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
Page 274 and 275:
Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
Page 276 and 277:
Table 23. Indicators related to lif
Page 278 and 279:
Table 24. Health-related indicators
Page 280 and 281:
Table 25. Education Number Number e
Page 282 and 283:
Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
Page 284 and 285:
Table 27. Central government curren
Page 286 and 287:
Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
Page 288 and 289:
Technical notes This edition of the
Page 290 and 291:
difficulties in assigning subsisten
Page 292 and 293:
series in national currencies are a
Page 294 and 295:
Public loans are external obligatio
Page 296 and 297:
estimates, the total fertility rate
Page 298 and 299:
expenditure and current revenue sho
Page 300:
Bibliography of data sources Nation
show all

World Development Report 1984

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?