World Development Report 1984
World Development Report 1984
World Development Report 1984
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
IBox 4.6 Three views of population change<br />
The cl-.rt' 'in tk3hi.-'~ pr--., U1 hr.: diiopirher.bni- .nd ihiin<br />
ir.rent p~r,p-,c'i - f t p ai'n re3e~Id r .;:t ri ? ii *lh th-s Jt-p iir t I~rrn,n: arId fi.l<br />
p.:-piaI r*n c~rc. ii Ai- Uc,ih :ik hurh:--tndrl. .a *nd n~c- b r.! -7- pc-pFulatc.fl<br />
Tlw t--p ch-art f . I 'hc chVa rzt _,In r h miuch m. qu.LkIk thin *n th~ tir;r<br />
aLt t ..-.rld pi-pultii n irL-m a-- w r---iII--w nt: cr a>i.<br />
ib, -lI,tq it I B C i. the b-:cinr-in,. I: ih -. r. flu'I rI I,. r-r-i n rd p-rlii r iri:.l<br />
iCTIculturilA,. I r . rh, nji ..t rhr pre-ent rjid rtI *n *-r ' 'he it3 IIe-mrr ..i ulir..<br />
c,lue Th, nuiddl, cha-rt ;h.- * p'-:paI.- -i) . - '[ Edi From.r th- lit.... -,lit 1 .nth :e_ntar.<br />
ti7 ri L rat-' zr.--r [FE l_;II .T i i 'I'D' l'L .:, th,,fl.ridu ;tr,.I !ciC tr'A!r, --L third tur-r<br />
The bc-it--iT- chi,rr 1 k i-p -nc -4 r-~--Ptili ---r, r. -. rh It began from a<br />
~h-ch.i.r'cI irt rhe _.i; the hurri,n much higher base and has covered a<br />
pc-publl *r, L~u' I a,i rt ile r penr, -c- *..Ii~ pll- 1tIiULh rhrer eri-I- ut i 'rth<br />
hac,k to I mflls-n F '_ -.ini *n a i,rt. 111111 t -I taptr nm 1 rpi<br />
CI rle ,ru-clta air4-A rh puttr<br />
Th, th,ree Kirh:w, ige3 4mkrik gl , jii i ht1ch LIrh e~tprt. t pa4ii flU<br />
rtt. nipre n' ~,-.-n 1 .tp-g-iaiIjij. *i r. tr [. h *:. rc t tr tr t~u r u.r Ti- p<br />
in ni-'ll-, F-c.-ruIa,tI,- r. I'In -nL, n -rc:. t h curl-.~~~gnnnv<br />
-rn-lint-~~~ Itvr 1i `1I I -<br />
b- c infli , orl il I ke *-utn rsi. l age --n<br />
' nt -p,rt-nc, a[-.,ri Irn. mI ht, i rids of<br />
r A _xI,rF r,ii~ ,E iense<br />
Lins -rdIt thiL *a itiri i .. pat--ii.r Th, ntl ch irt hizhlgi-hr; the<br />
ntn In-it I he niidile c:hart ri.I-3ti-tt ibiftiae-air in c.r-- 'Ih rites,<br />
'hr,; r 'cenrt darn~at IL in'crca ;, hav-. pai in the p~r qIuarter :-intury,<br />
t'**iripr ~idiuL-LJ 1: %relii3 % , rn-iI 311l ti ~i iL Ihi p r.i~dud tim- e'lar..Žr Jr-L4-,in the<br />
ih- ;r- 1cim tim icc-i-ran rre; -.*A ~-4 .I -n.* iittt-lt d1 --.n-ird trrend in -'rie<br />
\nn .Ia:i rih a. i t- out ii 4 p-ercErrt<br />
t C':I - l 1_1 u" and Is). i:rcp.r up. 1-ciaddl-<br />
1<br />
mi<br />
S- -L 'I<br />
~~<br />
-iC. t' h3r lilCIl -if-Lu1 ition<br />
I- p.-i--bI Time h7--FFrI:-r Igure<br />
until 1 it ' a O- Ji II ern e uii I c - * uttierlinf- thm- i-1,Ilih - cl it irn rit.tual<br />
rid th~n r- C -rp . I., I - ..r,n flt r ... be-r . rel n at. d<br />
h-,rI r 1-.fl al 3r.J I TI1-i Ii - :-r h--r -u . -. -It h, r im adlr:Iie in<br />
c rc -I Iit rat-. ;p,-, up,, ird b-ut r h,-i , birth rates or an unwelcome rise in death<br />
r,Erent -i,p arid i, lh--r,t-r, itt-t ai- dr:i. li- It calls attention to the need to<br />
tM ti limp: hr.aI l -e I i-, that n ti i- .-p IF--rm i-e ul.u-brtinrr- by a decline in birth<br />
cha-rt r/t<br />
Tim bu .-i Irr. .-ha,r t sh -. 'ha p,-pul- iii<br />
tiri ha Cr i fl t rif -n ,-rm.i. h-t le- than-<br />
li ill,--n --ri rtim : o i t h, ri1UIL It LIIriI i-,tlb-' --<br />
F.<br />
in th.. tir.1ri .,, irn ri cut, p,r-puLl- , 0 ' -<br />
r-r n- addcrd l:i. rid th, lin-itr<br />
would produce a population 25 percent smaller in is already low and fertility has fallen, the popula-<br />
the year 2050 than that resulting from the standard tion in 2050 would be only 2 to 3 percent greater if<br />
fertility decline. Combined with rapid mortality rapid mortality decline were added to rapid fertildecline,<br />
the population would still be 20 percent ity decline. But where mortality and fertility<br />
smaller (see Figure 4.8). Insofar as mortality and remain high-as in sub-Saharan Africa and South<br />
fertility declines are linked, the combined rapid Asia-rapid mortality decline combined with<br />
path for both is more realistic; it illustrates the rela- standard fertility decline would produce a populatively<br />
small effect that rapid mortality decline tion in 2050 about 10 percent greater. But even that<br />
would have on population size, especially ff fertil- difference is much smaller than the difference<br />
ity is falling. However, the implications of a faster between rapid and standard fertility decline:<br />
mortality decline are not the same for all regions. South Asia's population would be more than 20<br />
In Latin America and in East Asia, where mortality percent smaller and Africa's about 50 percent<br />
76