World Development Report 1984

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8 The policy agenda 155 Population policy 155 Policy priorities in developing regions 161 Donor assistance policies 178 9 Ten years of experience 182 Economic adjustment 182 Population change: success and new challenge 183 Population data supplement 186 Bibliographical note 202 World Development Indicators 207 Text tables vi 2.1 Population, GDP, and GDP per capita in 1980, and growth rates, 1960-83 11 2.2 Rates of growth in the real product wage and in labor productivity for the manufacturing sector and the aggregate economy, by country, 1962-78 16 2.3 Total public expenditure of industrial countries as share of GDP, 1961-81 17 2.4 Real rates of return on corporate capital, by country, 1962-76 17 2.5 Percentage of industrial countries' imports covered by nontariff barriers 18 2.6 Net savings and savings by sector in industrial countries, 1964-81 22 2.7 Change in export prices and in terms of trade, 1965-83 24 2.8 Consumption, savings, and investment indicators for developing countries, 1970-81 24 2.9 Exports from developing countries, 1965-83 28 2.10 Current account balance and its financing, 1970-83 30 2.11 Debt indicators for developing countries, 1970-83 31 3.1 Average performance of industrial and developing economies, 1960-95 35 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita, 1960-95 36 3.3 Change in trade in developing countries, 1965-95 36 3.4 Current account balance and its financing in developing countries, 1983 and 1995 38 3.5 Growth of GDP in developing countries, Low scenario and variants, 1985-95 41 3.6 Growth of trade in developing countries, Low scenario and variants, 1985-95 42 4.1 Percentage decline in crude birth rates and in total fertility rates, selected countries, 1965-82 65 4.2 Comparison of age structures in developed and developing countries, 1980 67 4.3 Rural and urban population growth, 1950-2000 67 4.4 Permanent emigration as a percentage of increase in populations of emigrants' countries 69 4.5 Projections of population size in selected countries, 2000 and 2050 77 4.6 Population size and density in Bangladesh under two fertility assumptions, 1982-2050 78 5.1 Growth of population, GNP, and GNP per capita, 1955-80 82 5.2 Malawi: projected primary-school costs under alternative fertility and enrollment assumptions, 1980-2015 85 5.3 Potential savings in primary-school costs under rapid fertility decline, selected countries, 2000 and 2015 86 5.4 Gross domestic investment per potential new worker, selected countries, 1980 87 5.5 Kenya: projections of employment by sector, under two scenarios, 1976-2050 89 5.6 Growth rates of food output by region, 1960-80 90 5.7 Cereal yields and fertilizer use, selected countries, 1969-81 94 5.8 Export structure and human capital 103 6.1 Total fertility rates and reduction from total potential fecundity due to different determinants of fertility, selected countries and years 114 7.1 Percentage of currently married women aged 15 to 49 using contraception, by region and for selected countries 127 7.2 Percentage of married women aged 15 to 49 practicing efficient contraception among those who want no more children 134
7.3 Discontinuation of contraception, recent surveys 136 7.4 Public expenditure on population programs, selected countries, 1980 149 7.5 Source of contraception among currently married women aged 15 to 44 and their husbands 151 7.6 Fertility targets and estimates of population program expenditures, 1980 and 2000 153 8.1 Population policy indicators for selected countries with populations of 15 million or more 156 8.2 Development indicators: Africa compared with all developing countries 162 Population data supplement tables 1. Population projections 192 2. Population composition 194 3. Contraceptive use and unmet need 196 4. Factors influencing fertility 197 5. Status of women 198 6. Family planning policy 200 Text figures 1.1 Past and projected world population, A.D. 1-2150 3 1.2 Indicators of standard of living, selected countries and years 5 1.3 Developing countries' share of population and production, 1800-1980 6 2.1 Growth rates of GDP for developing and industrial countries, 1961-83 12 2.2 Growth, inflation, and unemployment in seven major industrial countries, 1966-83 12 4.1 Fertility and mortality transition in developed and developing countries, 1860-1982 59 4.2 Birth and death rates and rates of natural increase by region, 1950, 1965, and 1980 64 4.3 Urban agglomerations with more than 10 million inhabitants: 1950, 1975, and 2000 68 4.4 Fertility in relation to income in developing countries, 1972 and 1982 70 4.5 Life expectancy in relation to income in developing countries, 1972 and 1982 70 4.6 Actual and projected life expectancy at birth of the world's ten largest countries, 1950-2100 75 4.7 Actual and projected total fertility rates of the world's ten largest countries, 1950-2100 75 4.8 Population growth of developing countries under alternative paths of future fertility and mortality 75 4.9 Brazil's age pyramid, 2020 78 5.1 Index of school-age and working-age populations, selected countries, 1950-2000 84 5.2 When will the number of agricultural workers start to decline? 88 5.3 Foodgrains and population in India, 1950-83 93 6.1 How government decisions influence family decisions 106 6.2 Relation between fertility and income per person 109 6.3 Total fertility rate by education group in selected countries 110 6.4 Average timing of reproductive events in selected types of societies 113 6.5 Accounting for fertility decline, selected countries and years 115 6.6 Fertility decline within female education groups in selected countries 120 7.1 Trends in contraceptive prevalence in 1970-83, selected countries 130 7.2 Contraceptive use and unmet need for contraception, selected countries, 1977-81 131 8.1 Fertility in relation to income: selected developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, 1972 and 1982 262 8.2 Fertility in relation to income: selected developing countries in the Middle East and North Africa, 1972 and 1982 168 8.3 Gross enrollment ratios by sex: selected countries in the Middle East and North Africa, 1960 and 1980 169 8.4 Fertility in relation to income: selected developing countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1972 and 1982 171 8.5 Fertility in relation to income: selected developing countries in South Asia, 1972 and 1982 173 8.6 Contraceptive use by method: Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka, 1975-83 174 8.7 Fertility in relation to income: selected developing countries in East Asia, 1972 and 1982 177 8.8 External assistance for population programs in developing countries 179 vii
Page 1: Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Page 6 and 7: labor markets. And they have a vest
Page 10 and 11: Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
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Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
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nal surplus. The resulting rise in
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Because the public sector in low-in
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developing-country creditworthiness
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themselves and, by caring for young
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fertility in a changing world is a
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nize contraceptive services. As wil
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Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
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scious control of family size, prob
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Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
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FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
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Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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largest city in 1950, will not even
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FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
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government goal is a nationwide rat
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North America's population in 2000
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IBox 4.6 Three views of population
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TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
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Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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implied by a simple division of tot
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and on farms. But the evidence on e
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get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
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youths, who are presumably able to
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saving because they come from the c
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acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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