World Development Report 1984

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North America's population in 2000 is 16 percent 1950 and the present by eleven developing counbelow the 1963 projection because fertility is lower tries, including Colombia, Korea, Singapore, and than expected; the 1980 projection for Asia as a Thailand, where at times the total fertility rate whole is 3 percent above the 1963 projection declined by almost 0.2 a year. Similarly, rapid morbecause fertility has fallen less than expected (even tality decline is based on the experience of fourteen though the projection for one country, China, countries, including Costa Rica, Cuba, Hong where fertility has fallen more than expected, is Kong, and Kenya, where life expectancy increased below the 1963 projection). by at least one year every two years between 1950 Two critical assumptions guide the World Bank and 1980 (and at a faster rate where initial life projections of each country's population. expectancy was lower). * Mortality will continue to fall everywhere Three points are clear from these projections. until life expectancy for females is eighty-two 0 Even with rapid fertility (and mortality) years. As Figure 4.6 shows, these projections decline, the developing world's population would essentially continue the trends that are already more than double by the year 2050, rising to 6.9 well established in the ten largest developing billion. The population of Indonesia would still countries. They ignore the possibility of any major increase from 153 million to about 300 million, that catastrophe, such as war or virulent disease. of Bangladesh from 93 million to about 230 million, * Fertility will eventually reach and stay at and that of India from 717 million to 1.4 billion (see replacement level everywhere. When that will Table 4.5). For countries of Africa, Central Ameroccur obviously varies from country to country, ica, and the Middle East, where the proportion of depending on current fertility levels, recent young people is higher and where fertility is still trends, and family planning efforts. For most high and would take longer to decline to replacedeveloping countries, replacement level is pro- ment level, the increases would be much greater. jected to be reached between 2005 and 2025; for Even with rapid fertility decline, Kenya would not most countries in Africa and the Middle East, it is reach replacement-level fertility until 2015, and projected to be reached later. For most of the larg- today's population of 18 million would increase to est developing countries, the projections of declin- almost 70 million by 2050. Under the standard ing fertility essentially extend declines that have declines, replacement-level fertility would not be been happening for several years. However, a few attained until 2030, and Kenya's population would countries, for example Nigeria, have yet to experi- grow to 120 million by 2050. With rapid fertility ence fertility declines; for those countries projected decline, El Salvador's population would still grow declines are assumed to start in the near future from 5 million to 12 million. (see Figure 4.7). * Population growth beyond the year 2000 The consequences of these "standard" assump- depends critically on falling fertility in the next tions for the population of all developing countries decade or two. As Table 4.5 shows, the difference are shown in Figure 4.8. As shown in the figure, in population size between the standard and rapid the increases still to come are likely to exceed what declines is not great in 2000-less than 20 percent has happened so far. This is naturally a cause for in most countries. Under any assumption, the concern, but not for despair (see Box 4.6). The pace populations of most developing countries are of population growth need not be taken as given- likely to increase by 50 percent or more by 2000; a it also depends on policy. And the way societies few, including Kenya and Nigeria, will almost cope with a growing population depends on eco- double. By the year 2050, however, the differences nomic and social policy as well as on how fast they will be huge. If fertility falls sooner rather than grow. later in Kenya, population there in 2050 will be The potential effect of policy can be illustrated by reduced by about 50 million compared with what it comparing population projections under the would otherwise be, against today's total populastandard assumptions with two other paths: tion of 18 million. "rapid" fertility decline (with standard mortality 0 In determining the ultimate size of world popdecline), and "rapid" mortality decline added to ulation, fertility matters more than mortality. rapid fertility decline. Country projections and the Rapid mortality decline combined with standard assumptions behind the standard and rapid paths fertility decline would produce population in are explained in detail in the Population Data Sup- developing countries 7 percent larger in the year plement. Rapid fertility decline is at a rate equiva- 2050 than that resulting from the standard mortallent to that achieved in certain periods between ity decline. In contrast, rapid fertility decline 74
FIGURE 4.6 FIGURE 4.7 Actual and projected life expectancy at birth of the Actual and projected total fertility rates of the world's ten world's ten largest countries, 1950-2100 largest countries, 1950-2100 Life expectancy at birth Total fertility rate 80 8.0 ' - -China * 70 I' 6.0 6.0 India ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ------ ~~~~~~~~~Nigeria Bangladesh 60 // ------ ,2ti / China India ------ United States - \ \ ~----- USSR / I ------ Indonesia I\\' ------ Japan vo / ~ ~~~~~~ Brazil A\ \ / | 50 /P|at N rlustan 2 \ \4.0 pt / Bangladesh ,'; / ~~~~~~~~United States," \ ' 40 ,'/------ USSR'|\ 5 30 / ~~~~~~~~~~~~--- japan a V X 1950 2000 2050 2100 2.0 " \ " G- The countries shown were the world's largest in 1980. 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: Adapted from Demeny, 1984. The countries shown were the world's largest in 1980. Source: Adapted from Demeny, 1984. FIGURE 4.8 Population growth of developing countries under alternative paths of future fertility and mortality Billions Billions 103 8 6 All developing countries 3 South Asia 6~~~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~ - - - - - - - 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 3 4 / ~~~~~~Fertility decline Mortality decline Sub-Saharan Africa / _ d / Standard 2 ~~~~~~~~~~~~Rapid Rapid S tandad 1 1900 1950 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 75
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
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Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
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Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105: saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
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Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
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Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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Page 126 and 127: etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131: effectiveness of existing laws, ins
Page 132 and 133: in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137: Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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