World Development Report 1984
World Development Report 1984
World Development Report 1984
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government goal is a nationwide rate of 2.7 by 1990. thousand and the death rate thirteen per thou-<br />
It is of course possible that the stalling may be sand, so Indonesia's population is growing at 2.1<br />
temporary. In Korea fertility decline was checked percent a year. In countries in which desired family<br />
for a while in the 1960s and then resumed. Yet size is four or more, fertility will fall further only<br />
stalling could also mean that initial, easily met with more social and economic change, along with<br />
demand for contraception has been largely satu- greater efforts to bring better family planning servrated<br />
at a level of fertility that is lower than it was, ices to more people.<br />
but a level that is still relatively high. Judging from There is also some evidence that improvements<br />
recent research on desired family size in many in life expectancy are slowing down. In developed<br />
developing countries, this may well be the case. In countries, life expectancy rose steadily until it<br />
the late 1970s parents still wanted about four chil- reached about sixty; beyond that, rises are natudren,<br />
even in those countries in which fertility had rally slower in coming. But in some developing<br />
initially declined. The average, for example, was countries, progress has not been so steady (see Box<br />
4.1 in Colombia and Indonesia, 4.4 in the Philip- 4.5). Much of the gain in life expectancy has come<br />
pines, and 3.7 in Thailand. Yet if each couple in a from various public health programs such as vaccicountry<br />
has four children, population growth will nation and antimalarial spraying, which generally<br />
remain rapid. Take the example of Indonesia, made a bigger difference in the 1950s and 1960s<br />
where the fertility rate of 4.3 is close to the desired than in the 1970s. This is especially true in Latin<br />
family size. The crude birth rate is thirty-four per America. In Asia, and particularly in East Asia,<br />
72<br />
Box 4.5 Is the rise in life expectanc) slowing too soon?<br />
Th, cur. in h~ clh3rr rp!e-.l`rr he Th-, x . ,13le, kl .lara .1,- il.,..r ,1... . to be sure. Some slowdown could also<br />
ir.nd ir, 1m hrc cI.t ir, .s 'r J.--d. di-r nL el-e .h'rr i. Lr, \car,; ;nd have akvr, riac in sub-Saharan Africa;<br />
count,,.r it 4ho . rhir h ii .rit U .;b. l *.uritt rhr b, n m:;i prncr.urn.:e. n 3 in A;, ., ;I......-. .d. n was probably<br />
.si,hi. < .'n . er,. U 1 ra3.z- ii?., k. : -ucr a- -'.rcenr,ni B.irb3 ..r modest. The chart does indicate that<br />
e pE.l;n. Irn t rcT -n. t Ir *.:r Eari. t,cuir it .:- Trinidad 3nd i ru,dUn gains t-II ;lilghrI short of the standard in<br />
th it-.51 in L w.; or Ihit.nd d .t:e n -* D.d - ihi- *h-xi-. d ccu. r, ; , -r<br />
Sri Lanka in the 1960s, but they were<br />
on. -i' ,i i:'UT Ibu: CUrT rr le, E I rm rrn., t h -i r, K.au.. rV., d t.;ia ire greater in China and probably also in<br />
ind-tr.al ;, Luniro-1 The rh e ,min3il1. m .,h ik.:r,:h,er el e h-re Ii ,. dircic,it India.<br />
.1,. "u.6 up- l'FE .'rwnd ch.Žn er:,LduMI.<br />
The .I!a,n jI, -n fl pai- Trends in llle e%pedtnc-: mhiee de%hoping coudrtriei and the mean tend<br />
Irl marird - 1-, pecn: r,;.;<br />
elb : m.e -- enr. -r inhl c hc L.h, -rtr<br />
de.eIed .: nt.<br />
:raounir,h,E<br />
nr..n:-, .- t he d,-e:.z,E .<br />
r cti. 3 tlZ r e<br />
c.~ cl- i, ' C. LI<br />
ihat [ ill F-qlc Irn<br />
:ailu,nr T unrier - ;uch ,; llc arc dit-airnd<br />
,a,,cer-xlt,t.-ndi ,,r,I '1,1, h. Pvr- ri7 40,1978. 0-..<br />
nme.j,al r.-arch "O, I :': 1.' *0 1975.<br />
F'ur.r. 17 tre m i" de l.an .1 .pr.c 4- 1 963, 1971<br />
:.-.rr,ur,- r ;,.cer- ;ut,tirmnriaI gain; in<br />
iilk c p-;tanc. ,'.!'ni, ;u:h .. r .I.:.n3,L<br />
Nite ,o, ind ri Lini,3 outperik.rnredt rhe<br />
*1candard reFrr;ent-c t. tht cur. Thc<br />
r-ord T,.r Th.c l-Q'i 3 nd 1c1ii I, z mr.uc:h<br />
nir- nil Duri., the lanrinth. Ficain.<br />
ii '-. .-ac, In iTr. pec3rn. ;<br />
;nms,ll . nd yr rm 1-1 l.; l--. .- I,.n/<br />
t- 4iar,ni '1 3 -eFra ar.nrnull, E e- .<br />
all.. . r, r lo.s tr c.,in- t hilhhr. r le. - .I../,h,-, -<br />
.1 their p' ire. . 1'. di pp.i cin<br />
rh,: - ,I x: . EunTr,c h3,d maccl,ed th, 1 .,, 4,' -,<br />
at indird it .- a,t h., t puiled!<br />
1- 4 * .,:ri- ,nn-ill. . .r rh... _r-...t