World Development Report 1984

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FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to income in developing countries, 1972 and 1982 Total fertility rate 8 Kenya Jordan * 1972 7 Bangladesh Morocco \ 1982 Ethiopia, H Sda igeria Mlexico Tanzania \El Salvador 6 Nepal hiippines ZIre PeruX India Trkey 5 ~~~~MalaysiaVneu. 4 ;Idnei\ \ i \ Norm for 92 developing countries, 1972 Thailand Brazil_- Sri Lanka Colombia Costa Rica 3 Trinidad and Tobago China Korea Singap Greec 2 * Hong Kong 1 Yugoslavia Norm for 98 developing countries, 1982 0 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 $6000 Income per capita (1980 dollars) FIGURE 4.5 Life expectancy in relation to income in developing countries, 1972 and 1982 Life expectancy at birth 80 Costa Rica Greece 70 Malaysia re Yugoslavi " China Philippi z h < s N Norm ~~~~~~~~~~~~for 92 developing countries, 1972 Trinidad and Tobago 60 Sri Lanka t Korea Thailand Egypt ey Norm for 98 developing countries, 1982 Kenyal I,Algeria India vordan 50 .Morocco Ethiopia Indnei* 1972 40 30 70 71 /Tanzania Nigeria * 1982 | Sudan Upper Volta 0 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 $6000 Income per capita (1980 dollars)
elow 40 percent. Life expectancy in England, than 2 since. Sweden, and the United States was still below fifty The reasons fertility has stalled vary from counin 1900, although average income (in 1982 dollars) try to country. In Korea fertility is already low-a was more than $1,000 and the literacy rate rate of 2.7 in 1982. Fertility fell as women married exceeded 80 percent in all three countries. One later, especially in the 1960s, but the marriage age analysis indicates that life expectancy in the devel- for women now averages twenty-four and is oping countries in 1970 would have been about unlikely to rise further. This cause of lower fertility eight years lower had it not been for the improve- may therefore now be exhausted. Marriage is uniments in public health. versal, and most Korean couples want at least one Fertility, too, has been declining in many devel- son. Until that attitude changes, actual fertility will oping countries faster than it did in today's devel- not fall to replacement level even if the ideal numoped countries. For Austria, England, and the ber of children falls to two. Some couples will have United States it took about fifty years to go from two girls and go on to another pregnancy. birth rates of thirty-five to twenty per thousand, an In Costa Rica the total fertility rate fell dramatiaverage decline of 0.3 per year. Birth rate declines cally from 7.0 in 1960 to 3.7 in 1978. But it has in China, Colombia, and Costa Rica have exceeded fluctuated around that level since. The use of conone point per year. Education and income growth traception has not increased since 1976, although have been rapid; modern communication has knowledge is widespread: 98 percent of married increased the speed with which the idea and legiti- women know of a source of modern contraception. macy of fertility control can spread; and modern The fertility of uneducated women has fallen, but contraceptives have lowered the costs and each still has about five children. The family planincreased the effectiveness of individual fertility ning program has flagged recently for lack of politcontrol. ical support. More important, parents still want Fertility is also declining at lower levels of more than three children-an average of 3.6, say income. Marital fertility started falling in most women in their early twenties, while older women European provinces between 1880 and 1930, when favor even more. average income already exceeded $1,000 (in 1982 Sri Lanka's initial decline in fertility was partly dollars), compared with half that figure when fer- due to increases in marriage age. But since 1974 the tility decline began in Latin America and much of total fertility rate has remained the same or even Asia. Between 1972 and 1982 there was a further risen, from 3.4 to an estimated 3.7 in 1981. The downward shift in the income-fertility relation. country's marriage patterns are sensitive to eco- These long-term changes encourage optimism. nomic conditions, especially male employment, so Lower mortality and fertility can be achieved even an economic revival in the late 1970s may have in the poorest countries. But there is also a new been the cause. But Sri Lankan women have one cause for concern. child more than they want, on average, so improved contraceptive services could reduce 6. Mortality has declined everywhere, and fertility fertility. has started to decline in many countries. But there is In India the total fertility rate in 1982 was 4.8, considerable variation, and in some regions and coun- down from about 6.5 in the 1950s. It has continued tries the declines now seem to be stalled at relatively high to fall, but very slowly. Except for the northern levels. state of Punjab, where the Green Revolution has Almost all countries outside Africa have experi- brought agricultural modernization, most of the enced some fertility decline in the past two decline has occurred in a few southern states in decades. But since 1975 the decline seems to have which female literacy rates are higher, infant morslowed and even stopped in countries such as tality lower, and family planning services better Costa Rica, India, Korea, and Sri Lanka, where run than in other parts of India. fertility levels are still relatively high (though low In many countries fertility continues to fall withgiven income levels in these countries). In con- out interruption. But in most, rates are still high, trast, once fertility started falling in today's devel- and the barriers to continued declines may not yet oped countries, it went on falling more or less con- have been reached. Indonesia's total fertility rate tinuously. Though fertility rose in Europe and the fell from 5.5 in 1970, when the government began United States for two decades after <strong>World</strong> War II, a vigorous family planning program, to 4.3 in 1982. total fertility rates rose only a little above 3 even It is lowest in Java, where the program has been during this baby boom and have declined to less most active. But even there it is still about 4.0; the 71
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
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Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89: North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
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Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105: saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
Page 112 and 113: from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
Page 116 and 117: emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
Page 124 and 125: the education of mothers increases
Page 126 and 127: etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131: effectiveness of existing laws, ins
Page 132 and 133: in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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