World Development Report 1984
World Development Report 1984
World Development Report 1984
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largest city in 1950, will not even rank among the two decades, and the urban population could<br />
twenty-five largest by the end of the century (see increase by 170 million, the rural population will<br />
Figure 4.3). still increase by 130 million. The rural population<br />
Despite the rapid growth of cities, the urban of all developing countries is likely to increase by<br />
share of today's developing-country populations is another billion people by the middle of the next<br />
not increasing especially fast. This is because not century. Both the rates of growth and the increase<br />
only urban but also rural populations are growing in numbers greatly exceed those of today's develrapidly,<br />
and in low-income countries from a large oped countries in the nineteenth century, the<br />
base, so that a considerable growth of numbers period when overall population growth in those<br />
will continue in the countryside for the rest of this countries was highest.<br />
decade and beyond. In India, for example, though Compared with rates of intercontinental migraurban<br />
rates of population growth are likely to be tion from Europe in the eighteenth and nineteenth<br />
about four times higher than rural rates in the next centuries, present-day permanent emigration rates<br />
are small: between 1970 and 1980 emigration<br />
absorbed about 3 percent of population growth in<br />
FIGURE 4.3 Europe and Latin America, less than 1 percent in<br />
Urban agglomerations with more than 10 million Asia and Africa (see Table 4.4). For India, a large<br />
inhabitants: 1950, 1975, and 2000 low-income country, the emigration rate was only<br />
0.2 percent. Only for a few countries are permanent<br />
emigration rates high, and these tend to be<br />
0 Dev oping countries p! h the relatively better-off, middle-income countries:<br />
Developing countries Greece, Hong Kong, and Portugal.<br />
Developed countries i Permanent emigration has only a limited effect<br />
on reducing the work force in developing couni<br />
, l r | Ba tries. To take a simple example, even if 700,000<br />
immigrants a year were admitted to the major host<br />
countries up to the year 2000, and all came from<br />
.. -. c : 1111low-income countries, less than 2 percent of the<br />
projected growth in population in the low-income<br />
countries between 1982 and 2000 would have emigrated.<br />
By contrast, such immigration would<br />
1950 1975 2000 account for 22 percent of the projected natural<br />
1950 (millions) (millions) increase in population of the industrial market<br />
New York, northeast economies and 36 percent of the projected increase<br />
New Jersey 12.2 London 10.4 in the main host countries: Australia, Canada,<br />
1975 New Zealand, and the United States.<br />
New York, northeast London 10.4 The past three decades have seen a marked<br />
New Jersey 19.8 Tokyo, Yokohama 17.7 increase in temporary migration. By 1974, tempo-<br />
Mexico City 11.9 Shanghai 11.6 tmoayB o<br />
Los Angeles, Sao Paulo 10.7 rary foreign workers in Europe, numbering about<br />
Long Beach 10.8 6.5 million, constituted 30 percent of the work<br />
2000 force in Luxembourg, more than 18 percent in<br />
Mexico City 31.0 Sao Paulo 25.8 Switzerland, and about 8 percent in Belgium,<br />
Tokyo, Yokohama 24.2 New York, northeast France, and Germany. They came mostly from<br />
Shanghai 22.7 New Jersey 22.8<br />
Beijing 19.9 Rio deJaneiro 19.0 nearby, middle-icome countries. In the major<br />
Greater Bombav 17.1 Calcutta 16.7 labor-importing countries of the Middle East,<br />
Jakarta 16.6 Seoul 14.2 about 2 million foreign workers constituted more<br />
Los Angeles, Cairo, Giza, Imbaba 13.1 than 40 percent of the employed work force in<br />
Long Beach 14.2 Manila 12.3<br />
Madras 12.9 Bangkok, Thonburi 11.9 1975. Ghana and the Ivory Coast employed about<br />
Greater Buenos Aires 12.1 Delhi 11.7 1 million foreign workers in 1975, mostly from<br />
Karachi 11.8 Paris 11.3 Mali, Togo, and Upper Volta. Argentina and Vene-<br />
Bogota 11.7 Istanbul 11.2 zuela had about 2 million workers from Bolivia,<br />
Tehran 11.3 Osaka, Kobe 11.1 Paraguay, and Colombia.<br />
Baghdad 11.1<br />
But, as with permanent emigration, temporary<br />
Si,rc, United Nations, 1980.<br />
S___-_______U__ited_____Nations,_______1980____ emigrants constitute only a small proportion of the<br />
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