World Development Report 1984

largest city in 1950, will not even rank among the two decades, and the urban population could
twenty-five largest by the end of the century (see increase by 170 million, the rural population will
Figure 4.3). still increase by 130 million. The rural population
Despite the rapid growth of cities, the urban of all developing countries is likely to increase by
share of today's developing-country populations is another billion people by the middle of the next
not increasing especially fast. This is because not century. Both the rates of growth and the increase
only urban but also rural populations are growing in numbers greatly exceed those of today's develrapidly,
and in low-income countries from a large oped countries in the nineteenth century, the
base, so that a considerable growth of numbers period when overall population growth in those
will continue in the countryside for the rest of this countries was highest.
decade and beyond. In India, for example, though Compared with rates of intercontinental migraurban
rates of population growth are likely to be tion from Europe in the eighteenth and nineteenth
about four times higher than rural rates in the next centuries, present-day permanent emigration rates
are small: between 1970 and 1980 emigration
absorbed about 3 percent of population growth in
FIGURE 4.3 Europe and Latin America, less than 1 percent in
Urban agglomerations with more than 10 million Asia and Africa (see Table 4.4). For India, a large
inhabitants: 1950, 1975, and 2000 low-income country, the emigration rate was only
0.2 percent. Only for a few countries are permanent
emigration rates high, and these tend to be
0 Dev oping countries p! h the relatively better-off, middle-income countries:
Developing countries Greece, Hong Kong, and Portugal.
Developed countries i Permanent emigration has only a limited effect
on reducing the work force in developing couni
, l r | Ba tries. To take a simple example, even if 700,000
immigrants a year were admitted to the major host
countries up to the year 2000, and all came from
.. -. c : 1111low-income countries, less than 2 percent of the
projected growth in population in the low-income
countries between 1982 and 2000 would have emigrated.
By contrast, such immigration would
1950 1975 2000 account for 22 percent of the projected natural
1950 (millions) (millions) increase in population of the industrial market
New York, northeast economies and 36 percent of the projected increase
New Jersey 12.2 London 10.4 in the main host countries: Australia, Canada,
1975 New Zealand, and the United States.
New York, northeast London 10.4 The past three decades have seen a marked
New Jersey 19.8 Tokyo, Yokohama 17.7 increase in temporary migration. By 1974, tempo-
Mexico City 11.9 Shanghai 11.6 tmoayB o
Los Angeles, Sao Paulo 10.7 rary foreign workers in Europe, numbering about
Long Beach 10.8 6.5 million, constituted 30 percent of the work
2000 force in Luxembourg, more than 18 percent in
Mexico City 31.0 Sao Paulo 25.8 Switzerland, and about 8 percent in Belgium,
Tokyo, Yokohama 24.2 New York, northeast France, and Germany. They came mostly from
Shanghai 22.7 New Jersey 22.8
Beijing 19.9 Rio deJaneiro 19.0 nearby, middle-icome countries. In the major
Greater Bombav 17.1 Calcutta 16.7 labor-importing countries of the Middle East,
Jakarta 16.6 Seoul 14.2 about 2 million foreign workers constituted more
Los Angeles, Cairo, Giza, Imbaba 13.1 than 40 percent of the employed work force in
Long Beach 14.2 Manila 12.3
Madras 12.9 Bangkok, Thonburi 11.9 1975. Ghana and the Ivory Coast employed about
Greater Buenos Aires 12.1 Delhi 11.7 1 million foreign workers in 1975, mostly from
Karachi 11.8 Paris 11.3 Mali, Togo, and Upper Volta. Argentina and Vene-
Bogota 11.7 Istanbul 11.2 zuela had about 2 million workers from Bolivia,
Tehran 11.3 Osaka, Kobe 11.1 Paraguay, and Colombia.
Baghdad 11.1
But, as with permanent emigration, temporary
Si,rc, United Nations, 1980.
S___-_______U__ited_____Nations,_______1980____ emigrants constitute only a small proportion of the
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