World Development Report 1984

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Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fertility and mortality rud J.hI rti,h nrA d~ J,iIh r:,t.r p,-r t h.u t .*y nit, -r, n, -I i .-n,c p n.i inrm, bn I it r. I F-r nPI, t- LI.a -. ih, p r. .p.rr. r,r .r. I r r.I -itI.r, pi .., ,. ~ ni .i- .-I,V i ' .~ ~ rrtn .rt.l ir, ..4 *i-ir.r. .- 4 d,ti..r.-r.i .d ..-.n ~ I I- J t-,id a.> r, 1 4j4 . . h s been n i: pq7ur, Li I ,, .. Ith r,-I H , r ,rul, ryr. - d, ni., ,rnvi--ri, tl-u. ir, I- i 1.1I . t.-rti I, .: -ri. ir.: ~ . r3ir irn h t- k.. 1.p. F t-rr i m n..: i . ji, hj, :1in ni. F: d.1.. I1.p,n, :. -.nrrr'.3 in the I.,'r it.. dem ., ruckt :birth r3r.-s have .7,1 t-,rrh4 ind .1 r - i rh, h-,-. L-k~ ih- i..r I Iril .,rF,i Ii , *fp, t tiIr- 1- tha ri -tr rm iirrdIi r3t : in that 1 . -. rd duiO ic- I Ii- r r-. t,. - r.,.I it t-irrrih - rth.h n- ~ -~ it p. d r-d rrd.:ri ui. .tvn.7~ -l-. in fer- rn-., .t,r- I, v -,; *r .- IhI pl.rp. .;c ir:- rh-, in1..I,ir-. i-, IF- rrb*.r * i r-. r,..b..r rr, t.,i, Id-t 1. r- .i --..plk. ih,: ame is r..iI 1 ril a 1.- I I-i 'nn:, ii t ,t . ul- d Li. -- , ~ d i. . I F F r. - 1 I-- n. i.,Irii. I h.. -rud.. death rate rIb., tlii! P.:ir,,r. - .v.i pmr,il.-ir.j IF..t .. il r 'u h,: th:r ri nd- I, !---l-r than the Fi-. -ri t i rir. 1-r. I l-F I.L, - r,rir ,-li ,ur. u-p r. 'h s urIrri , e r .-ud,- 1.-0, Fr,i-if -.ri. 1 4 versus 7.2 iir ih. .uin , I th-: 1--ahrib ;i .p:i h.. I. d ,ii ,hil' r, n i sr r- ilh.- it. p- rrh..u,. rndi t:im mu.i-cause the I. ... i, :- -~.[ , -r-hi. n Ii rc.i, q,-r. p iii. t1,rk F. t . ~, % ui. r .,- pr. -r. rri. -, I l-.- p-Fuii.-' over sixty- nir ri r rh .r.. -I r-nun -,t,i Ft L-.rti-m o.-., i-t.F,Ld L. it: iCr Tiruol,F . -F.I,s I, - . -r i,r,.. ic :r, t I.in lie Nether- ,- n, hAd I h-, t,rtiliii. i ir. [ h- ni- Ji-rih rFin a F. - r udJ. it- i.r.rh I r-A I tF. P.. -* r, .ir Fin - . -- r tIn~ r .. r-.r 1.: ' I lii. ti, I. . *i. i Ill t.: Ii, . I ti- i-prr du, r, _ . rr I .: 1 . -r, n I. rL,r r- rhu, ,i ri.-I -i ii,- II rn-Fnt I,r i -l t *1 M. .r i..- Fr..up4 , ii r- iz r. nu[.. rtI r. tth l'-. r I-, i r . ri I I r ~ J,iir ~r-'I. inin . ni, r I.- :,-1 h~.. h,Ti-n ri t h r n1ud r I h, I b--.1 nr m:nr-i time exr rII r. *.. .1 -,. r -~ r r. group or .h,.n,. r.1 J..b:. rd . I I iiFrr I>I.-,I..C- with only 20 to 25 percent in developed countries Colombia, for example, the working-age popula- (see Table 4.2). Although the proportion of old tion will increase from 15 million in 1980 to almost people is smaller in developing countries, the 25 million in 2000. In Bangladesh it will almost dependency ratio-the proportion of the popula- double, from 48 million to 84 million. The ecotion under fifteen and over sixty-four to those nomic implications of this growth are discussed in between ages fifteen and sixty-four-is on average the next chapter. higher. In Japan, for example, there are roughly In other age groups as well, population growth two people of working age to support one who is in developing countries will be higher than in either too old or too young to work; in Kenya, the developed countries. The number of people older ratio is less than one-to-one. Other things being than sixty-five will almost double between now equal, if income per worker were identical in Japan and 2000 in developing countries. In developed and Kenya, income per person in Japan would countries the number will increase by about a third nevertheless be at least 30 percent higher. Even (but by about 85 percent in Japan). within the sarm-e country there are comparable dif- 3.Nihrntna oriteainl"igtonfes ferences in age structure-and hence in depen- 3.a Neiuther iternopl nritration Higiiration alowh offersti dencyburdns-amng fmilie. Inurba Maharashtra state (India), about half the people in ral populationi increase account more for the rapid prut peeopncutre f iisi thndesrrl the poorest 10 percent of households are younger growth ofgcitieson. Develping couentriveshnde rural-ubnmga than fifteen; in the richest 20 percent, only one in urban migrlation. Despivte extnsivea arurasfl-urbancomiga five is younger than fifteen. tsian, populato grothiin ruer als aerceas of low-incomear The age structure in developing countries means Asia andseAfricalestillavernagesna2 peircetior more apear. that birth rates will remain high for some time Thepreent scaltempofay iontentionesal smigallpootion,bt per even if each mother has fewer children. It also inaet pouandtemo ary,dveopn consiutires asalpoprino means the number of young people entering the teppltoso eeoigcutis labor force will continue to increase for the next Cities in developing countries are growing at two decades. For countries where fertility began to almost twice the rate of overall populations (see fall in the mid-1960s, the rate of growth of the labor Table 4.3). More than half the increase is due to the force is now just starting to decline, though the balance of births over deaths; the rest is due to absolute number of new workers will continue to migration from rural areas and the reclassification increase until after the end of this century. In of rural areas to urban status. Historically, the 66
TABLE 4.2 Comparison of age structures in developed and developing countries, 1980 a. Weighted average. Age distribution (percent) fertility Country group 0-4 5-14 15-64 Over 65 All ages rate All developed countries 7.6 15.5 65.6 11.3 100.0 1.9g Japan 7.3 16.1 67.7 8.9 100.0 1.8 United States 7.9 15.0 66.3 10.7 100.0 1.9 Hungary 8.0 13.7 64.9 15.9 100.0 2.1 All developing countries 13.6 25.5 57.0 4.0 100.0 4.2a Korea, Rep. of 10.6 22.7 62.7 4.0 100.0 3.0 Colombia 14.0 25.4 57.1 3.5 100.0 3.8 Bangladesh 17.9 24.9 54.6 2.6 100.0 6.3 Kenya 22.4 28.6 46.1 2.9 100.0 8.0 urban populations of some of today's developed today's developed countries only in 1950. Lowcountries have grown even faster-for example, income Asia and Africa are still overwhelmingly the urban population of the United States rural; their current urbanization level of about 25 increased at about 6 percent a year between 1830 percent was reached in the developed countries and 1860. But today's developing countries have before 1900. started from a much larger base, so the absolute The world's biggest cities are increasingly in the increases are much greater. From 1950 to 1980 the developing countries. Between 1950 and 1980 the urban population of all developing countries proportion of urban dwellers in developing coun- (excluding China) increased by 585 million-com- tries in cities of more than 5 million increased from pared with a total urban population in the devel- 2 to 14 percent, growing at a rate of 15 percent a oped countries in 1950 of just over 300 million. year. Sao Paulo, which by the year 2000 could well Latin America is the most urbanized of develop- be the world's second largest city (behind Mexico ing-country regions. In 1980 about two-thirds of its City), was smaller in 1950 than Manchester, people were urban dwellers, a level reached in Detroit, and Naples. London, the world's second TABLE 4.3 Rural and urban population growth, 1950-2000 Percentage urban Average annual percentage growth population 1950-80 1980-2000 Country group 1950 1980 2000 Urban Rural Urbani Rural All developing countries 18.9 28.7 .. 3.4 1.7 . Excluding China 22.2 35.4 43.3 3.8 1.7 3.5 1.1 Low-income Asia 10.7 19.5 31.3 4.4 2.0 4.2 0.9 China 11.2 13.2a .. 2.5 1.8 .. India 16.8 23.3 35.5 3.2 1.8 4.2 1.1 Africa 5.7 19.2 34.9 7.0 2.5 5.8 1.5 Middle-income East Asia and Pacific 19.6 31.9 41.9 4.1 1.8 3.1 0.9 Middle East and North Africa 27.7 46.8 59.9 4.4 1.6 4.3 1.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 33.7 49.4 55.2 3.1 1.0 2.9 1.7 Latin America and Caribbean 41.4 65.3 75.4 4.1 0.8 2.9 0.4 Southern Europe 24.7 47.1 62.3 3.8 0.5 2.9 -0.2 Industrial countriesb 61.3 77.0 83.7 1.8 -0.7 1.0 .-1.1 Not available. a. Government estimate for 1979. b. Excludes East European nonmarket economies. 67
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31: TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
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Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
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Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
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Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105: saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
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Page 112 and 113: from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
Page 116 and 117: emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
Page 124 and 125: the education of mothers increases
Page 126 and 127: etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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