World Development Report 1984

alone accounts for a third of all the people in devel- TABLE 4.1
oping countries and where the birth rate has fallen Percentage decline in crude birth rates and in
by over 50 percent since 1965 (see Table 4.1 and total fertility rates, selected countries, 1965-82
Figure 4.2). Birth rates have also fallen in other Crude birth Total fertility
countries of East Asia-in Hong Kong, Korea, rate decline rate decline
Thailand, and Singapore by more than 30 percent, Region and couintry 1965-82 1965-82
in Indonesia and elsewhere by 20 to 30 percent. In Sub-Saharan Africa
these generally middle-income economies, a Ethiopia 5.6 3.0
demographic transition to low fertility is clearly Kenya +0.2 0.0
under way. Nigeria 3.7 0.0
In the middle-income countries of Latin America Sudan 1.4 1.5
as well, birth rates have fallen more than death
rates, which has slowed the rate of population
Zaire E3.3
Middle East and North Africa
Algeria
3.8
6.0 5.4
growth. In Brazil and Mexico birth rate declines Egypt 16.3 22.0
have been more modest than in East Asia but have Iran 7.7 18.8
still been rapid, especially in the past decade. In Morocco 20.0 18.3
Colombia, Cuba, and Jamaica birth rates have also Tunisia 26.5 28.6
fallen. But in the poorer countries, including El Latin America and Caribbean
Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, Bolivia 6.1 4.6
birth rates are still more than thirty-five per thou- Brazil 18.6 30.4
sand and population growth rates close to or Colombia 31.4 42.9
greater than 3 percent a year. In Bolivia and Peru Cuba 51.5 55.6
the growth rate is still about 2.5 percent. Guatemala 17.6 21.2
Honduras 12.5 10.8
In South Asia the birth rate has fallen barely Jamaica 29.1 37.1
enough to offset some further decline in the death Mexico 23.8 31.3
rate. Sri Lanka is the only country of the region Nicaragua 8.7 12.5
with a birth rate less than thirty per thousand. Peru 24.4 30.8
India's birth rate has fallen markedly in some South Asia
states, but much less in others, and is now about Bangladesh 9.6 14.9
India 19.9 18.7
thirty-four per thousand; as death rates have Pakistan 15.8 22.7
fallen, population growth has increased, from just Sri Lanka 20.2 30.6
above 2 percent a year in the early 1960s to 2.1 East Asia and Pacific
percent in 1982. In Bangladesh and Pakistan the China 54.0 61.3
birth rate has barely fallen and exceeds forty per Indonesia 22.4 25.9
thousand; population grows
pp gr
at about 3 percent a
year. In Africa and much of the Middle East (with
the exception of Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Tunisia,
Morocco, and Turkey), birth rates are above forty
per thousand and have changed little or not at all;
Korea, Rep. of ~~~~~~~~~~~
Thailand
35.4 ~~Philippines 32.0
34.0
43.8
38.2
42.9
population growth rates are generally above 3 increase in the proportion of women of marriage
percent. and childbearing age, the birth rate would have
In most countries where the crude birth rate has risen by 1.1 points from 1971 to 1981, from 36.9 to
* fallen, the total fertility rate has fallen even more 38.0, had there been no change in the marriage
(see Table 4.1); the total fertility rate is the number rate and marital fertility. (In fact, it fell by 3 points
of children a woman would have if she experi- as marriage age rose and married couples had
enced current age-specific fertility rates of all
women (see Box 4.4). The total fertility rate has
fewer children.)
fallen more because high fertility and declining
moralit the bease and f9tls mand taalarge
2. The high fertility and faIling Infant mortality of
the mid-1960s mean that in developing countries today
proportalioyin ofe todays population in devealonge
proportion of today's population in developing
about 40 percent of populations are aged fifteen or
countries is now of childbearing age. Until this younger.
group has completed its childbearing years, overall In countries such as Kenya, where fertility has
birth rates will remain high, even if actual family declined little or not at all, more than 50 percent of
size is small. In India, for example, because of the the population is younger than fifteen, compared
65