World Development Report 1984

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Box 4.3 The European fertility transition P.Etur, 1%'' crIrlihi. in IcL e ti I1 c r.-r. -nt -ir. D,nn.irl ( rnr,n . ,,h. r- inteni n.iiriaiir r!;hril-.s: 3- troIi h r_h :,ntarid L ~r- r. c rhs t. tdih ianat d 5Larting dates of Iertilh transition in Etropean tI provincesI Jb-1%h4 Qol p . l -. ii- * r: t riI 11 ir gn lI rizr.c,l F -er- .' nd .,r I 1- -rl .u rEIrrr n R. r . -. ilii el Iiar In Fr,r- I -- ni.map, Thi- [i:z.iprr: *. irI . arr. I r, i. Wr. rt -t . ,; .11-*. L, I-- r . n r. -i Il l3 ' b t . 311 bt r -p- n pF- - - h .: .an Ih,ir r.; i Ii.t lfr,.inl Fp1 Iin,:,- * hay ,r,. .r- n. . r;d i,rtilir-. drhIim- in Hr.tl rr. . r pI ii ,rhirii S.;r.trc-nI4 d EI,wr-.i,- G . -c, nIi cn n IP 411 i FI r- .:ri.d --I ir.d --rt,:rFrnr,ih- -p.- ng u- -,n f-I wr.::A.d rhn - inii EIc[.iuI,ni i\ 'll.AIiri -3r.ea i;h.c,r- ciii- Eijr--pr i:-jrichcq, r .3- hc-in un,.ru rI. . ri~raII ,r... lir;u, i . td y l-c-iL 1--h .,h- I. -: *r . 1- -brrlyrwri ir. . r Fr- . h r r. r.i i l-r. IcriI . rA d-.i -ri n n. -- i r .Li ?-.. t I I*.-Al- .cnl , II Jl - :r i. t-: p- r. riyal rr. ril., h r 'ii I * r.iurh>J -cr1-ur * :.- in. , . i 1 -Fair i-i liii- i-f n r, - .iri-- 'ret- ri, y-r .1 .dI--p-r1w -r r. --d I lIy?t *Ic h, -c ri . r i rn y r n ard Ih J i-Žr .r i. i-r.r, r t ri i --. il . rri.-r . I,r rni V.- II ... ;1 I. i rs. * n Jr,tt .t.-r,r,t luJ r ..... .,r: . , ... -- r. r. , -ir,.t :.- . Il p, ............... ;r,. .. !i#!'1]9095 I1. . Ii u-d nil Iiip ir...ni .lirfl , n r.. in.h.c - .ail j pr--. I, hr. u ' F r-n-- -- : yI r r. n r F -r r. ,-,n , .i,. ri,: l ch L r. ; r.. -i -I..n ,. . y lr r.gI rd l. -- .1 ir ,.-. rus,r.d 1I Itiwlui ri-i tyu.liri r_hIiJi-u :cr.1- ulisrie -lilly. r.--. ['cii r. I I I in .r I 1 . *- h r p1c.;. - [ ] js.4 ii and careic r L i 1 5% L i IS I r-cu L I u'l and latcr N .- data ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ u r r~~~~ ~ m~~~ t2 I - 1' I - - : ~~ ~ - -, i ._ ,i .. *
liberalized, and contraception, especially use of uted little. But in the early years of the twentieth condoms, spread. century, medical science found ways to combat What are the lessons for developing countries? infectious disease. As a result, by the 1920s and * Fertility can decline in largely rural popula- 1930s mortality decline was spreading from tions; it did so in France, Hungary, Japan, and Europe and North America to Japan, India, and Sweden. In France, Hungary, and Japan social parts of Central and South America. With the aspirations and land ownership help explain why introduction of antibiotics, antimalarial spraying, smallholders chose to limit their families. In Swe- and the increased use of vaccination, the decline den fertility decline was associated with rapid pro- accelerated in the 1950s and spread to all developductivity gains in agriculture and with an increase ing countries. Improved communications, the conin the share of landowners among all agricultural solidation of political and administrative systems, workers. and cheaper transport all made it easier to transfer * Economic and social opportunities for the the new advances between and within countries. majority of people matter. Fertility decline was Not only did this mortality decline occur rapidly; delayed in England, where the real wages of farm it began from higher initial levels (see Figure 4.2) laborers and unskilled workers rose only slowly, and in societies where fertility levels were higher. and where education was confined to the middle At least initially it was not followed by fertility class through most of the nineteenth century. Fer- decline. tility fell as education spread and became more The current demographic condition of developnecessary to earn a living. ing countries can be summed up in seven state- * The mere idea that it is legitimate to limit ments. births matters, but it does not spread automati- 1. The postwar rate of population growth in developcally. In France and some other European coun- ing countries is without precedent. Though in the past tries fertility declined rapidly within cultural and two decades rates of population growth in some countries linguistic boundaries, but was slow to do so farther have been falling because of birth rate declines, rates of afield. The spread of the idea that fertility control is growth are still unusually high, and birth rates are not legitimate occurs more quickly as transport and declining everywhere. communication become easier-a potentially powerful force now in developing countries compared In <strong>1984</strong> the world's population will increase by with Europe before the twentieth century. about 80 million. Most of the increase, about 73 * Low fertility is possible, but much more diffi- million, will occur in developing countries, now cult, without sophisticated modern methods of comprising about three-quarters of world populabirth control. In today's developed countries, late tion. The combination of continued high fertility marriage and celibacy were important contribu- and much-reduced mortality has led to population tors; so, probably, were withdrawal and absti- growth of between 2 and 4 percent a year in most nence, abortion, and possibly infanticide. But once low- and middle-income countries, compared with economic and social conditions are favorable, 1 percent and less in most developed countries. modern contraception speeds the decline in fertil- Growth at 3 percent a year means that in seventy ity, as the Japanese experience has proved. years population grows eightfold; at 1 percent a year it merely doubles. Current population growth Current demographic change in developing in the developing economies is a phenomenon for countries which economic and demographic history offers no real precedent. Only in a few developing countries have popula- For developing countries as a group, population tion growth rates fallen below 2 percent a year in growth rates rose from 2.0 percent in 1950 to 2.4 the past two decades. In many, population is still percent in 1965, largely because of falling death growing by more than 3 percent a year. In general, rates (see Figure 4.2). Since then, death rates have growth is fastest in the poorest countries. This continued to fall but birth rates have declined even delinking of population growth and prosperity in more, so that growth has slowed somewhat. The what is now the developing world began after rate of natural increase (and of population growth) <strong>World</strong> War 1, when mortality began to decline. in developing countries is now about 2 percent a Mortality had already been falling slowly in year. Europe and the Americas, largely because of The fall in the average growth rate is due almost improved living standards-medicine had contrib- entirely to the birth rate decline in China, which 63
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27: FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29: 14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31: TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33: export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
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Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
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Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105: saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
Page 112 and 113: from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
Page 116 and 117: emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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