World Development Report 1984

century. But, although unskilled workers and farm During the nineteenth century, the idea of conlaborers
(only a small fraction of the rural popula- trolling fertility spread quickly in France. It did so
tion owned their own land) enjoyed some increase also in other parts of Europe, though within linin
wages, at least after 1820, it was the upper- and guistic and cultural boundaries and not quickly
middle-income groups that captured most of the across them (see Box 4.3). By the 1830s the French
income gains. birth rate had fallen below thirty per thousand.
In addition, the early phase of England's indus- Apart from Ireland in the 1840s, during its great
trialization permitted earlier marriage, which famine, no other European country went below
caused an initial rise in birth rates as rural industry that level until Belgium and Switzerland in the
provided job opportunities outside agriculture. 1880s, followed by England and Wales in the
(Such new opportunities similarly provide a 1890s. France never experienced a long period of
rationale for early marriage and high fertility in falling death rates and high birth rates, which elsetransitional
societies today.) Rural industry may where produced a surge of population growth. Its
not have increased the income of any one family, population, once large compared with its neighbut
it increased the number of families by giving bors, is now unexceptional. Perhaps as a result, a
more young people the chance to set up a house- large body of French opinion has been persistently
hold. Finally, for most of the nineteenth century pronatalist. As discussed in Chapter 8, former
the costs to parents of educating children were French colonies in West Africa still bear that legacy.
confined to those at the top of the income scale. In Sweden the demographic transition followed
Only 8 percent of school-age children were the classical pattern more closely. Average incomes
enrolled at school in 1851; despite much progress, were rising from at least the 1860s. The death rate
still only 59 percent were enrolled in 1891. When had started falling in the 1830s; the birth rate
fertility started to decline, it did so first among the started falling in the 1860s due to later age at marprofessional
middle class, which felt most keenly riage. Fertility within marriage decreased in the
the need to educate its children. Only as education 1890s. When fertility began to decline, Sweden's
spread did fertility decline in all groups. economy was still largely rural, with 74 percent of
Though urbanization and industrialization came the work force in the late 1880s engaged in agricullater
to France than to England, fertility began to ture, forestry, and fishing. Nonetheless, the econfall
in France as early as the 1790s, when mortality omy was changing. Farm productivity had been
was still high. Parish records show that families in rising rapidly from the 1860s. The percentage of
some villages were small enough to indicate that farm owners in the agricultural work force rose
parents were deliberately controlling fertility. Most from 42 to 57 percent between 1880 and 1930. As in
women continued to have their first two babies France, fertility fell among landowners. Those
within the expected interval of two to three years. without land of their own left for the cities or emi-
Soon after the French Revolution in 1789, how- grated to America. Women's wage rates were risever,
the intervals between the second birth and ing especially fast. Education was more widethe
third, and especially between the third and the spread than in England; in 1870 almost 60 percent
fourth, lengthened substantially. of children were in school.
The decline in fertilitv could not have been confined
to the educated. In the seventy-nine French Similarly, in Hungary and Poland peasant landdepartments
for which data are available, only one owners began in the nineteenth century to limit
in four people marrying was able to sign the parish their families so that their children could inherit a
register in 1786-90. But the French Revolution pro- workable piece of land. The fertility of landowners
moted what French demographers call social capil- was consistently lower than that of landless farm
larity, the belief that one's children can rise in workers.
social status. It brought new aspirations (perhaps Japan provides still another story. During much
including the education of children), reduced alle- of the twentieth century, fertility declined gradugiance
to religious norms, and made individual ally as marriage age rose. But fertility within marchoice
(as opposed to family and communal riage was as high in 1950 as it had been in 1930.
authority) more legitimate. It also changed inheri- Then, by about 1960, it dropped by half. There was
tance customs. French farming, unlike British, pronatalist opinion between the 1920s and 1945 in
consisted mainly of small peasant holdings; under support of Japan's expansionist policies. After
equal inheritance, fewer children made it easier to 1945 the national mood changed and public policy
keep family landholdings intact. started to favor small families. Abortion laws were
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