World Development Report 1984

FIGURE 4.1
Fertility and mortality transition in developed and
developing countries, 1860-1982
Crude rate
(per thousand) England and Wales Kenya
60 Births
50
40 Births
30 Deaths
Deaths __
20
10
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1950 1960 1970 1982
Crude rate
(per thousand) France Colombia
60
50 Births
40
30 Births
20 Deaths
10
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1950 1960 1970 1982
Sources: Easterlin, ed., 1980; Habakkuk and Postan, 1965.
percent of the mid-period population. For Ireland dren were shared neither within an extended famannual
gross emigration averaged 1.9 percent of ily nor by the community. Nor did parents need
mean population in 1851-61 and 1.3 percent for the sons to secure the line of descent; they could adopt
rest of the century. This was more than the natural sons from outside the family, an acceptable and
growth of population, so Ireland's population fell frequently used option.
between the 1840s and the end of the century. Detailed religious records of four villages in rela-
More than 7 percent of Scandinavia's population tively affluent regions of Japan show that crude
emigrated to the United States between 1880 and birth rates rarely exceeded thirty per thousand, a
1890; and between 30 and 40 percent of the figure lower than would be expected in a premodincrease
in population of Italy, Portugal, and Spain ern society. Death rates tended to move in line
emigrated between 1846 and 1932. with birth rates, assuring slow but steady growth
Japan in the eighteenth and nineteenth century in each village. As in Europe, mean age at marpresented
a similar picture. Fertility was not high, riage was high, between twenty-two and twentypopulation
grew very slowly, and economic five. About 40 percent of women aged fifteen to
growth, although uneven, exceeded population forty-four were not married. Marriage rates fluctugrowth
so that living standards gradually rose. ated with economic conditions: for people in their
One explanation for low fertility was the Japanese early twenties, from as low as 14 percent to as high
"stem family": when they grew up, children out- as 80 percent when times were good. Couples had
side the line of descent were forced to leave the an average of just over three children, and mothers
household by marrying into another family or sup- tended to be between thirty-two and thirty-eight
porting themselves elsewhere. The costs of chil- when their last child was born-evidence of con-
59