World Development Report 1984

Economic transformation: Europe, Japan, areas of many developing countries, where educaand
North America tion beyond a few years is not available, extended
family systems permit earlier marriage. The new
In the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, the couple often lives with the husband's parents for
early phase of modern economic growth in north- some time, and the family's assets are shared.
west Europe, population and income increases What would be the financial burden of marrying
accelerated together. Populations grew due to young and having children is reduced in the larger
gradual declines in mortality and, in some areas, to household (though even today marriage does
increases in marriage rates as new economic come later and fertility is lower among the truly
opportunities opened up. Europe's rate of popula- destitute in developing countries).
tion growth rose from 0.5 to 1.5 percent a year. No country in northwestern Europe had a crude
Even that was low by modern standards, for sev- birth rate above forty per thousand in 1800; in several
reasons. First, when the industrial age began eral (Denmark, France, Norway, and Sweden)
in the late eighteenth century, fertility was lower birth rates were nearer thirty per thousand. The
than it is in developing countries today because crude birth rate in England was thirty-four per
marTiage rates were low and because those who thousand in 1850, before marital fertility began to
married did so in their mid-twenties to late twen- decline, compared with forty-seven per thousand
ties or even in their thirties. In the past two in Colombia in 1960 and more than fifty per thoudecades
historical demographers have used sand in Kenya today (see Figure 4.1). By contrast,
church registers to compile new and detailed infor- in the Indian subcontinent in the nineteenth cenmation
on marriages, deaths, and births in parts of tury, crude birth rates are estimated to have been
Europe. These studies indicate that as many as 15 between fifty and fifty-five per thousand.
to 20 percent of women in northwest Europe never Another reason for slow population growth in
married and that at any given time only 45 to 50 the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries was that
percent of women between the ages of fifteen and mortality, although gradually declining, was high
fifty were married. The mean age at marriage in by today's standards. At the beginning of the ninethe
seventeenth and eighteenth centuries was teenth century infant mortality rates exceeded 200
about twenty-five in Belgium, England, France, per thousand live births in many communities of
Germany, and Scandinavia. Newly married cou- Europe. They were about 250 per thousand in
ples had to set up their own households and thus Sweden, and were more than 300 per thousand in
had to postpone marriage until they were finan- what is now Germany, compared with an average
cially independent. A common arrangement was of 100 per thousand in low-income developing
for older couples to pass land to the young in countries today. The crude death rate in France
exchange for a guarantee of retirement support; and England was about thirty per thousand at the
such contracts occurred between different families beginning of the nineteenth century. It was
as well as between parents and children. twenty-three per thousand in England in 1841,
The poor in particular were forced to postpone twenty-eight per thousand in Germany in 1867,
marriage; young adults often worked as servants and more than thirty per thousand in Sweden in
to the better-off until they could marry. In England 1870, compared with about thirteen per thousand
and Sweden the landless married later than those in India today.
who owned land, except where cottage industry As a result of low fertility and high mortality, the
opened up new opportunities to earn a living. natural increase in population seldom exceeded 1.5
Marriage occurred particularly late in Ireland. In percent a year. In England it peaked at about 1.6
1871 half the Irish women aged twenty-five to percent in the 1820s; in France it never exceeded 1
twenty-nine were still unmarried (compared with percent during the nineteenth century.
36 percent of English women). Ireland's poverty Finally, these natural increases were themselves
led to late marriage and often to spinsterhood. But partly siphoned off in emigration. About 50 million
religious beliefs prohibited birth control, so marital people left Europe for Australia, Canada, the
fertility was high. Nevertheless, the birth rate and United States, and New Zealand. At its peak
population growth were relatively low. (1881-1910) emigration was equivalent to 20 per-
The contrast with fertility patterns today is cent of the increase in Europe's population. For
marked. Now the key to high income is education. particular countries, it was much higher. Nearly 45
The rich send their children to school, so marriage percent of the increase in the population of the
is delayed and fertility is restricted. In the rural British Isles during 1846-1932 emigrated, about 40
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