World Development Report 1984

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nize contraceptive services. As will be shown in agree on the precise nature of that balance, but Chapter 7, substantial "unmet need" for family every society needs to consider it. planning information and services does exist in many countries. The case is strong for support of programs to assist the poor to achieve their repro- Lessons from history ductive goals more efficiently and humanely. This would increase the welfare of parents and improve Public concern with population growth is a recent the chances of their children having greater educa- phenomenon. The transition to low mortality and tional opportunities, and eventually better job low fertility in today's developed countries opportunities. occurred without any explicit public policy. But cir- The distinction between these two justifications cumstances in developing countries today are diffor a public population policy-the gap between ferent, and for several reasons that point to the private and social gains, and unmet need for fam- need for policy action. ily planning services-has not been important in practice. Support for family planning is usually how governments try to reduce fertility, a sensible The agricultural age and before first step so long as there is unmet need for information about family planning and unsatisfied For much of human history, prosperity and popudemand for services. Government's role in devel- lation growth went hand in hand. In the preindusoping and enhancing a social contract to lower fer- trial age, population growth was periodically tility provides the basis for public subsidies to fam- spurred by increases (often temporary) in the supily planning; family planning programs have been ply of food and declines in disease. In fact disease subsidized most where a public policy to reduce kept the number of people well below a level at fertility is strongest. In fact, family planning pro- which starvation would have become a major grams have become an important vehicle for infor- cause of death. Fertility in normal times was well mation about the private and social costs of high below its biological potential, but it could rise fertility, and for incentives to encourage individ- quickly if mortality rose. Over long periods the uals to reduce family size. world's population increased slowly (by far less than 1 percent a decade, compared with 25 percent Such governmental involvement has expanded a decade today). in the past decade, since the Bucharest <strong>World</strong> Pop- Settled agriculture permitted a rise in populaulation Conference in 1974. There, governments tle concult ur ba rs in the adopted a Plan of Action which recognized the tion, some concentration in urban centers, and the emergence of a small nonagricultural class. In the basic humanri to schs ofreeld rensT - sixteenth century population declined in the bly" the number and spacing of children. There Americas because of new diseases contracted from has since been substantial progress in assuring Europe. In other parts of the world, population freedom of choice through family planning pro- growth rates increased between about 1450 and grams-about 95 percent of people in the develop- 1650-to rates higher than 1 percent a decade in ing world live in countries that support this China, South Asia, and Europe. Even these principle. increases were tiny by modern standards; over Should governments not only ensure procre- time and among regions, population growth conative freedom but also encourage social responsi- tinued to be irregular and vulnerable to fluctuability? The answer in this <strong>Report</strong> is a firm yes, with tions in mortality. Moreover, life expectancy was renewed attention to the ethical implications of probably little higher in 1600 than it had been 2,000 incentives and other policies that go beyond family years earlier. Everyone's health was threatened planning. A dilemma arises whenever pursuit of more or less constantly by disease. Only a tiny one set of values-improvement of material wel- proportion of people were literate or numerate. fare through lower population growth, reduction Between 100 and 1850, the percentage of the of inequality, insurance of future security-threat- world's population living in towns and cities of ens other values, such as freedom of choice and 5,000 people or more probably never exceeded 6 pronatalist customs and beliefs. But there is a bal- percent. In England between the thirteenth and ance between the private right of procreation and eighteenth centuries, there is evidence that when social responsibility. As discussed more fully in mortality fell so that labor supply increased, wages Chapter 8, different societies will not necessarily fell and food prices rose (see Box 4.2). 56
Box 4.2 The Nlalthusian case: changes in labor supply, wages, and population growth in preindustrial England P, lr.h r. h-. br. II hI r- llei' rh -: sni - Change, in elcdted .ariablei in England 't'. -r- IrcIm.,i.,*n.n ifl nn l%n.In tnIr:i-d 1 ,riz:r.n pr.tl:, llri: .i Fr trmtl ......................... :.:trorn lhr- Lhmrieenth hrenhthteL io lhe L.: -.i,- ! mu n.. rr,.li .in1 rl ed !ii r..irn4 in h.Entiethi entrivir I n:ir'. l .-, r i- ..--n ti: rr, * TI. EArt3nbrSr t :.i,. . IAti,u',anrI Ih. n I-. r jnanir§3. .nFl i,t raMt-l in d rii'e .1.r A- t !r : t., 1 r-td i.nd rrieI pu L _ tli ri l- r prid ru 1 ..... t t ,l-. rcrl -il Fruii..Dlni .fii ,t; n !;, fertl. rTIl l .1 : e i ._sl Ii li n Fp. u I nI. -. n c r. flu'' IIi F rt,fl, 4.t,r.- r. ie. p mAIN, l 1 .n1 ni.- r .. r n-,-.: t ri P. lrli:r nl,;, I IrI.- .1, t a prf. 1. L,.t.l, tLII f 1 L [ wi I I 1- Ti ' -i - .'.'' *. Tr.-t II, Lr I l t i nir 't.. , l - iti- r-- - -r- r.r n. .. n d w J,.;- r,. rm pre .pi. m Ilrkd.. mjr,,d ,ir -A I,i .- ho- -il! rat .lnl, icriit- 1|. .. jAis , s..r.,d..... l.;l .: * Th. .t jr~~li !n L O]itt-rl,j I -ll -% ............ J i-n .11 rh: Iu. h,:. nth . riturr ,1, ............ t:.-.g-1 1lil4 '-iJ -!.1.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~T411-14 W L'roui!;1 .n Lre3 In 'hi- Itlhuia.n .: :ie 121 1 4'r 1'.' 'II'" !9 F. i ni.nlJflt t tnil n I Ln. r . r-IIi i-. iAr i.-|. ,I_rr...ri.. ,r r-.1 r- n.n-.. - .Ji'i .tnh* -.. i.- i..mi, r 1.1t . . I i d l ilt - rli i. i sti:,nd r..1- i.- rr.-. ir t r. ..- r,I, 1 !. ,n r pr.- td:c it-hi .ki. .n tht i3. - r- NI1ltrhu, 1.- ir:d F.- ...... i.. lt pr-iu Ii ; ii........,, . * IFi Iircr bh Ire m thu In.-l.rSlllt. t4'' 12u 'I o 1. .t . !L,X|, ,. rE .... .n * 1 , t t , r -r, n d . I r I I ,. , et h . ........ 1 41 J1,rarr, Ft-rId: i i1 t Ilr * ' p P n,- dt 'I ... " -I._- n [ ! .... .. .sr .r. ii J I . n t. . L i I t h n 4 Irn.r-r I 5-1 th , uri t. r,l,. h .riturrh, R.:F D- ir [h ml th,_ to rr- rth c r,-. 11 111 rl' 2 ,ir r- uc hr .' t..l,fr. f] i.t f p. n. ,:., ri d-n..ddi. h .1 t. *r;L 1 -nii . :t-.Ir,- .F.- 1 p.,t.il;.- m 3t -.r.-,I pj jiil Jrii ; t . - ,h.r. rC.. trifle ani .. .:.:-i . UIli 1 ! 11.. 1 1.- I r.lir . r 13n.i i . n.1 r- L-n r ; 1 r, r ;.c h..h rJul:tniFuT.in -ni tem ' i 4ltl lli I-i. t ir. ,:e:lt-,ru r . r r-n [ ilni i l n ri-in . - . -r. . I. -t II 3, - I c -' r :nI.i 1,,Ir:. ll f.r .hr , .... .,., 1 r , J - 3n. , , .ln r - L r. I 1-1.3, ,n r, rn.rl. . A- r ,rE ;. r n,ilArI ... -u . lilIIatI . n . J ..qr..Itulrilli-r ....... r, J::" .... ,r': 4 -1-. ',1 .r.-.: .1apil-. Ii,- 4;,il- . t, rAil Ir dir.' II .,- I nied . i-h li I-,lr- r.Jn, ..1 rl-,- Ind u-rr,s l Rt .l uhr.nr Li hlie rI-i * i ,-i d * . 3 ,I t.In. did in i-t l cr,*rh. I-'i l. e i r II t1 .. ilr .3 i IIti -rd .1t 1 1w nmin.- n1h ilmI,lilt -hare ir---: 3nI rr.j I- , : rt,sla -.:,-nlr.- 57
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 20 and 21: example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23: ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 24 and 25: etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27: FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29: 14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31: TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33: export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
Page 68 and 69: fertility in a changing world is a
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
Page 82 and 83: largest city in 1950, will not even
Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89: North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105: saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
Page 112 and 113: from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
Page 116 and 117: emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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