World Development Report 1984

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labor markets. And they have a vested interest in As its predecessors, this year's World Developreducing their own trade protectionism and adopt- ment Report is a study by the staff of The World ing outward-oriented policies. Bank, and the judgments in it do not necessarily Although recovery, at least in the industrial reflect the view of our Board of Directors or the nations, is now on a firmer footing, the outlook for governments they represent. the years ahead is full of uncertainties. The outlook would brighten considerably if every nation took steps to improve its own domestic economic performance. But development assistance is also critical, in reviving the global economy and in addressing many of the fundamental development issues of our era, including population. Especially for the poorest countries, a substantial increase in conces- A. W. Clausen sional flows of funds is needed to secure develop- President ment momentum. And although the direct costs of The World Bank programs to reduce population growth are not large, a greater commitment by the international community is sorely needed to assist developing countries in the great challenge of slowing population growth. May 25, 1984 iv This Report was prepared by a team led by Nancy Birdsall and comprising Martha Ainsworth, Rodolfo Bulatao, Dennis Mahar, William McGreevey, Nicholas Prescott, and Gurushri Swamy, and assisted by Jill Armstrong. Deepak Lal and Martin Wolf contributed to Part I. The Economic Analysis and Projections Department, under the direction of Jean Baneth, prepared the statistical materials on which Part I is based, as well as supplied data for the whole Report. Peter Miovic coordinated the work of the Economic Analysis and Projections Department on Part I. Ramesh Chander supervised the preparation of the World Development Indicators, assisted by David Cieslikowski. Staff of the Population, Health, and Nutrition Department provided extensive help on Part II. The authors would like to thank these and the many other contributors and reviewers. Thanks also go to the production staff-Christine Houle, Pensri Kimpitak, Jeanne Rosen, and Gerald Martin Quinn (who also designed the cover)-and especially to the support staff headed by Rhoda Blade-Charest and including Banjonglak Duangrat, Jaunianne Fawkes, and Carlina Jones. The work was carried out under the general direction of Anne 0. Krueger and Costas Michalopoulos, with Rupert Pennant-Rea as principal editor.
Contents Definitions and data notes ix Glossary x Demographic terms x Acronyms and initials xi 1 Introduction 1 The economic outlook 1 Population and demographic change 2 Part I Recovery or Relapse in the World Economy? 2 Recession in retrospect 11 Industrial countries in the past two decades 12 Developing countries after 1973 23 3 Prospects for sustained growth 34 A ten-year perspective 34 The Low case and developing countries 35 The High case and developing countries 37 Policy requirements of the High case 39 Capital flows and debt 42 Poverty and low-income countries 47 International action 48 The links with population 50 Part II Population Change and Development 4 Demographic change and public policy 51 The setting for high fertility 51 The need for public policy 54 Lessons from history 56 Current demographic change in developing countries 63 Demographic prospects and goals 73 5 The consequences of rapid population growth 79 Differences among countries 81 Macroeconomic effects of rapid population growth 81 Constraints on agricultural production 90 Population and the environment 94 Urban population growth and internal migration 96 Population growth and the international economy 100 Conclusions 105 6 Slowing population growth 106 Socioeconomic factors and fertility 108 Marriage, breastfeeding, and contraception 212 Incentives and disincentives 121 7 Family planning as a service 127 The use of contraception 128 Supplying family planning services 136 Financing family planning 148 Obstacles to program expansion 152 v
Page 1: Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 4 and 5: Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
Page 8 and 9: 8 The policy agenda 155 Population
Page 10 and 11: Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 12 and 13: Glossary Demographic terms informat
Page 14 and 15: I I
Page 16 and 17: countries regain their momentum of
Page 18 and 19: 4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 20 and 21: example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23: ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 24 and 25: etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27: FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29: 14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31: TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33: export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57:
TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59:
Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61:
nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63:
Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65:
developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67:
themselves and, by caring for young
Page 68 and 69:
fertility in a changing world is a
Page 70 and 71:
nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73:
Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75:
scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77:
Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79:
FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81:
Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
Page 82 and 83:
largest city in 1950, will not even
Page 84 and 85:
FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87:
government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89:
North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91:
IBox 4.6 Three views of population
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TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95:
Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97:
implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99:
and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101:
get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103:
youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105:
saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107:
acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109:
food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111:
is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115:
other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119:
Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121:
6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123:
feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
Page 124 and 125:
the education of mothers increases
Page 126 and 127:
etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129:
TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131:
effectiveness of existing laws, ins
Page 132 and 133:
in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135:
FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137:
Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
Page 138 and 139:
few births; to encourage spacing, T
Page 140 and 141:
Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143:
Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
Page 146 and 147:
132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
Page 148 and 149:
TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
Page 150 and 151:
TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
Page 152 and 153:
may be delaying a first pregnancy,
Page 154 and 155:
family planning and maternal and ch
Page 156 and 157:
clients may develop can be promptly
Page 158 and 159:
Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
Page 160 and 161:
medical examination was not always
Page 162 and 163:
measuring social acceptability, or
Page 164 and 165:
Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
Page 166 and 167:
costs per user. Public cost per use
Page 168 and 169:
sanguine, however, as soon as one t
Page 170 and 171:
TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
Page 172 and 173:
Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
Page 174 and 175:
FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
Page 176 and 177:
improving the availability of famil
Page 178 and 179:
Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
Page 180 and 181:
Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
Page 182 and 183:
FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
Page 184 and 185:
growth. Fertility has declined in t
Page 186 and 187:
Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
Page 188 and 189:
FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
Page 190 and 191:
able several types of condoms, pill
Page 192 and 193:
housing schemes to parents with onl
Page 194 and 195:
and training, data collection and a
Page 196 and 197:
9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
Page 200 and 201:
Population data supplement The six
Page 202 and 203:
Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
Page 204 and 205:
190 Births and total fertility =Ice
Page 206 and 207:
Table 1. Population projections Rat
Page 208 and 209:
Table 2. Population composition Low
Page 210 and 211:
Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
Page 212 and 213:
Table 5. Status of women Number enr
Page 214 and 215:
Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
Page 216 and 217:
Bibliographical note This Report ha
Page 218 and 219:
Background papers Note: Source refe
Page 220 and 221:
-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
Page 222 and 223:
I I
Page 224 and 225:
Table 10. Structure of merchandise
Page 226 and 227:
Key In each table, economies are li
Page 228 and 229:
same order is used in all tables. T
Page 230 and 231:
Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
Page 232 and 233:
Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
Page 234 and 235:
Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
Page 236 and 237:
Table 3. Structure of production GD
Page 238 and 239:
Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
Page 240 and 241:
Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
Page 242 and 243:
Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
Page 244 and 245:
Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
Page 246 and 247:
Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
Page 248 and 249:
Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Table 12. Origin and destination of
Page 256 and 257:
Table 13. Origin and destination of
Page 258 and 259:
Table 14. Balance of payments and r
Page 260 and 261:
Table 15. Flow of public and public
Page 262 and 263:
Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265:
Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
Page 266 and 267:
Table 18. Official development assi
Page 268 and 269:
Table 19. Population growth and pro
Page 270 and 271:
Table 20. Demographic and fertility
Page 272 and 273:
Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
Page 274 and 275:
Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
Page 276 and 277:
Table 23. Indicators related to lif
Page 278 and 279:
Table 24. Health-related indicators
Page 280 and 281:
Table 25. Education Number Number e
Page 282 and 283:
Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
Page 284 and 285:
Table 27. Central government curren
Page 286 and 287:
Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
Page 288 and 289:
Technical notes This edition of the
Page 290 and 291:
difficulties in assigning subsisten
Page 292 and 293:
series in national currencies are a
Page 294 and 295:
Public loans are external obligatio
Page 296 and 297:
estimates, the total fertility rate
Page 298 and 299:
expenditure and current revenue sho
Page 300:
Bibliography of data sources Nation
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