World Development Report 1984

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Because the public sector in low-income coun- without excessive cost to themselves, they will tries is large in relation to GDP, cutting imports need to expand their exports rather than just usually means cutting public spending. Although reduce imports. Any worsening of global prosgovernments may have scope for reducing spend- pects in terms of increased protectionism and furing without damaging long-term growth, budget ther rises in dollar interest rates would erode the cuts too often damage programs with the greatest ability and perhaps even the willingness, of borcapacity for raising the economy's growth poten- rowers to service their debt. tial. Some of them may be classified as current As in trade, so in finance there is a need for spending; but education and health budgets are concerted international action. The success of better seen as investments in human capital. developing countries' efforts to deal with the rigid- Most human development programs have long ities and distortions in their own economies gestation lags. Their output is not directly tradable depends in part on the actions of official and priand often is not even marketable. Commercial vate suppliers of finance. For the poorer countries financing of such investments is therefore unrealis- the main challenge for the international commutic. A real increase in concessional assistance is nity is to find ways of supporting policy reform needed, and has been for several years. Yet, at through additional flows of concessional assisttimes of their greatest difficulty, low-income coun- ance. This has been the challenge in the negotiatries have found that official aid has been falling in tions for the seventh IDA replenishment (see Box real terms. This trend must be reversed if low- 3.5), the discussions for possible supplemental income countries are to make any progress in the budgeting to IDA, and the extension of the Lome years ahead and the lot of the poorest people is not Convention. to deteriorate any further. For the middle-income countries the actions of a wide range of private and public institutions are International action important. Commercial banks have typically relied on borrowing countries' agreements with the This chapter has shown that the world economic International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a basis for outlook would brighten considerably if every restructuring existing claims and, in selected cases, country took steps to improve its own domestic for committing additional funds. Increases in volperformance. The onus on the industrial countries untary lending by the commercial banks in the is greatest, because growth prospects throughout long term is an important ingredient in the restorathe world would be transformed if they overcame tion of growth momentum in middle-income the rigidities and inflationary fears that slowed developing countries. But the transition back to them down in the past ten years. Even without fully voluntary lending requires prudent managesuch benefits, the developing countries could do ment on the side of both borrowers and lenders. much to help themselves through policy changes Official institutions, particularly the IMF, the that increase the flexibility of their own economies. <strong>World</strong> Bank, and the regional development banks That said, some measures need to be taken at an can be helpful in this regard both by assisting in international, not purely domestic, level and in a the design of more effective developing-country coordinated way. A trade-liberalization initiative policies and by expanding their own lending in that concentrated on the newer and proliferating support of policy reforms (see Box 3.5). Efforts by forms of protectionism-various nontariff barriers, these institutions to encourage private direct especially those affecting developing countries- investment should also continue. Finally, it is would make an important contribution to restoring important that official export-financing institutions the momentum of the world economy. It is also adjust to the greater risks of lending to developing essential to start liberalizing trade in agriculture. countries in a nondisruptive fashion. What is Just as the liberalization of trade in manufactures required need not be very dramatic for any single provided a once-for-all but sizable boost to produc- institution, provided they all act constructively. tivity growth in the late 1950s and early 1960s, so Measures that would result in increased financial the same approach to agricultural trade, combined flows to developing countries to help them underwith the reversal of the recent protectionist meas- take structural adjustment and maintain long-term ures on industrial products, could boost productiv- financial viability will help make trade liberalizaity in the 1980s. tion easier by improving their short-term balance Freer trade is also vital for solving the debt crisis. of payments outlook. In turn, liberalization would For the developing countries to service their debt expand exports and would tend to strengthen 48
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 12 and 13: Glossary Demographic terms informat
Page 14 and 15: I I
Page 16 and 17: countries regain their momentum of
Page 18 and 19: 4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 20 and 21: example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23: ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 24 and 25: etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27: FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29: 14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31: TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33: export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
Page 68 and 69: fertility in a changing world is a
Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
Page 82 and 83: largest city in 1950, will not even
Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89: North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105: saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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