Box 3.3 Delinking from the world economy? Ha.i:r an :pen riding and pajrrncnt4 mor, uil,rahle in p.:.i.:r, -i*ul;till bt .,rpuail, n.:.ne ,n !-r.-' ,. n.r, thiar $15 rq gInr *:n.-ura,: -;u .:.pr,ntp l u:n e -A a', - t'eiaj r tii-an und,r n.Jnre cii r. tIhe k,ll, r. in i'-'^ ID1 the *ame per. i Irdcl-I ,tl, In-.-,rmrn1 re,--ur-: Thi a , 'n.r..bir. t pcrindt. d& n rilc.pn^ r% i....,ieur n.Ini F.,] ,d ro-C 0.1-I-' stronger argument s.-r Irte.-Tatin, inic C.uflhnt. . hich AF,. IUlIfTr Initgr3tu:.r lion to only $4.1 billion. India and Korea the world economs trr.an rh.ir hich i,r. th, orld C, nom. i. i- unai .,d- were different in several respects: claims that demand from ;ndu.trial :1'!.. ti mr..-n, c.n.-1uenc:, -.. tr.- e. -, Korea's literacy rate in 1960 was more countries provides an "-cgir.r of erbatcd tr in:-pprr.riar, -.1.nmilleam p h- than twice that of India; foreign capital growth" for the developing . 'rid AII cit i. .cr'AIu,d ': h3ng. r3n, Oclot,. to Korea were larger; and, of countries have to trade to some extent. un-u;rtinub., putl, .p-prndn- i.rt -ni. course, India is a much bigger country More inward-looking -Mcr. e airc nt icnt. rrI l.nlFrkni poi,cs ill ,-eniutiu,J the with a I,rg-r domestic market, so its lessbuffetedbyexternal t,h.-,:,. ai. - 1A . ri-run -'r,,.n-,t-: c.:t :pr. '.. itt, exports as a percentage of total GNP "utward-looking nne' The nmre iaril, 'rd would n,i b .pt rpid to be as high as :,rd,-Xit. .:.In- .r. .- rh.*I-mhe h,rh r To I.:. ,h,c ;I'jt' ,ht tit .l -ri.,i: k r. :, ih huch they m, :ht well be in th, pni .Or n n Dap-iral cc*od; in inc,. ni. ht t . ir Ir-in ., .. a.) : ah...:it,.-JUtt rm. 3ri mi he ,,rEar,:r Il-- -:r- u. u.: rid e-.n,--m: -in ik3 . - I.' .r .,ra-r- Nevertheless, there were important pci I *:. 'n-,-,ns !r,E n.imp-t 1- n;,iarh n-.r. .,,Zc nc.'rre thin it 1ih l., d.:,r.cn.,r'm '.rnllarTi.:- hr example, in 1960 the rt..: ni .re Jill,tcuir ^t,.h r. e..n. nil, rl .. t r .- r, r iti,,,irl. Fr r 1 share of manufacturing in GDP was 14 -Fa.ntr .1t.n e 0-- t-'.....: u , th- ntrr,n' 1l -. r' , -i percent in both countries, and the share mrr.l-lr rhe pr,-p"-r,.r. i.t i-.t . pn,enr h:t', ,rDl, -. 'r., . r, 1. of the labor force in agriculture was 66 r*et,d,I. trria.W-I. F.-r iht,- ra3-.:nr. .h 'I n.Jr. Irt...tm .nra rn.it-'nal .'nr. percent in Korea and 74 percent in India. 3rd.l..ir. t curi.n, u h ; al .n F ., rii,.. I nd i I-, , nrit ar..n., J r nerd ir. Both countries had followed an inwardh id r, .t , .r, nl, I-.: r zr. o' th but al ;. . cr_,- ih,t t ..i ,n-,.r;,.aI -t . _t.' t- It.. ii looking development strategy in the rr,t,r-r d3iticulit, in .h , fkrcrni ., ;r:..r rhr- Je,g -thr. 8 it ur -'- For countries with pressure of nd nv-rd n.ri.-.. Jtebr pr'tleni- th.ur. the I,I- ,t,b-It' E a- t-.L 1t at , tr n- i p.-p.ul3t ....- rn I land and a rapidly grow- 1rW.1r : ut:U. :,rci -1-- .' im, en :r--* Tb.,. ri.- up:inz It, .iar.5 Ir-n-, n n.t t :,tr:nor, ,r, t1,. ing labor force, labor-intensive manufact:.-nr-t bt .t.- 1. ,r,n Anrrir, urdr x ,rd e-. rr,-.n-rl .urinc rhr -t;rti p.ri,.d turing is a major means for providing E. ;r i -i.in n,,ddI.,-,rc,.n r . ir, -,jtr ..i' th-a r h rd e,,- rr .. -. ,r . r in:, employment. The relatively poor perforthe 1980s,; rn-utru,: a - i r. ri ii,r rtrl, ri .I Y.,; i, n l-'u i-., mance of Ird... in. i-r.,ni;;n.it manufac- Ailth he t.* : ,:. rr. ,,hir.- .m it-.-lt *,. . a - n-r.uiCt,rin.- tured -F'-rz meant that employment an ('it ,a rJ-.rr,t-,li z-trr.,t.ci i *..bi . 3 -cur ' . .i *uari'tr e indi; - n -lr.ii t outside .r, h-:uli,rr ha, rr ..- much less ousiy dlinin,,h it tr.dc, sit. .- i r.7.nr -. nt...rt rhan r-11 p-r,:nr .- , ind,. , than it could have. increase or ,-eimnil tiinir,n, -n,,rrui .n-.-, t--- .r.:,n t r-,i C --p-ri,:e i1-r,. not occur too swiftly, if a large proportion of ing-country trade balances, the amount required to domestic output is easily tradable-that is, if meet debt service payments, is equivalent to only 5 domestic and international prices are reasonably percent of world exports. Some of the exports of closely aligned-and if it is easy to expand exports debtor countries, however, face actual or potential rather than necessary to compress imports. Unfor- restrictions in foreign markets. Equally important, tunately, many of the principal debtor countries the domestic system of incentives is biased against got into difficulties just because these conditions exports in many of the developing countries, did not exist: their exchange rates had become seri- which makes it more difficult for them to exploit ously overvalued; their producers were heavily the opportunities for exports that do exist. protected, often by import controls that reduced Partly because of the difficulty of expanding the incentive to sell abroad; export industries were exports and partly because of this domestic policy relatively underdeveloped and, in addition, faced bias against exports, imports have been cut dragrowing restraints in foreign markets. matically instead, with adverse implications for Because the major debtors account for only a growth. Moreover, there is a difference between small fraction of world trade, the transfer of reducing imports by reducing domestic spendresources abroad needed to improve their current ing-painful though that is-and reducing imports accounts should in theory be accomplished reason- by imposing direct restrictions on imports. The latably smoothly. A shift of $100 billion in develop- ter is likely not even to produce the needed exter- 44
Box 3.4 Exchange rates and price adjustments: lessons from the experience of developing countries Xl-- rIo .-rnni-nt intr. -r ntr in ttin R. i: 1-- I imp. -rt had rt- . t" 14 per- - Iumrrd r,mont more than i practnt t: i *s Ih.imgt rat.-.... -h, re;ulis are tat-r a h- .-nri and e.port had til 2 pr I thar 2 prer .i h--t it3n 'th in,. ~'e-erl it. -. aiu,d rei .. e'.:haniciv cent Th~ r-r'ai ' .arc a ttmprarrl t3bie Iir c;.t the r iug-la ednim. rart Ihere de hnvd a- t1u 'i mfdcre. iinanced r-. lari: capital ntl-o-- that aln¾',t it ice a; much in tern-'; t .im e- I l prcee ;I- t,*r-it-n prices at t-n'.rald re;p,..nd1d to capt al mark-i deregitla- ti: res-'urceth to e3rn it ot tor txgn ih prt . hlirn. nomimal nut II i tlt- rt tr-rcd e-chanec Ithr-. ugh inport *u. -ilutin *hiri t- ur-.Ut-- ........ - ard 1 - ci: rtad-'d at.'j .1 ,ari te1l by 12 4 percenr T- --- alt than thr ugoih , \prtt vt~:r' *r' and indu:e c t- dtmard ltr thr pr,announ:ed e\chan_ c rat.: p--It Turke% repre;:nt4 3n-ther intere;tling imp- -rt fhc- recLiin, -hrirag .-i fcr- a .1- aban3Ncned Pt 1Li at--: ., a- .et t. rern e change i4n -hiuatin nma. al t- irr rE and .ih. rlttc'liic brcught eco- rti nlpg.ri-i nmp d Additir'r-.uI c-cciir -h-n gi:trnnieni' i-Hot-. the n'nmic r-'-v Ih to J hIall Rapid increart; rncaura,r t i rat3-n r:-rvign changt e Iquiteo mimnoni p ot h-Idrne th. real in ihe prtice It'.el had tat ''utp3aed the Tlh- p hli,i. r-udlie ettiC n-:i I\ .rtat- echang^-. r.lt mn-ranr ,n the pre- n-:- or rapid - opreciat'r -t ht lange te in .n-rn:tie. I 1, In. ;'ilt r-- -urce, tc- ad er-, e.ernal *hack; Th- impl-. arIer 1 c-; anrd L-intinu:d ic- d- .' until inr-irt -ub;vtutir.g act-tl rle. %- hil- d *--.n rt c t t-. underl r arl1 i F -npcund niarter ihe requiret nir Im -rin: r'mu rt-uurce' ti 'rt iulibriint r,al cUhangrge rate alth'gh cOu"i1' iL an i-I ir--rF 'tler and ih, .il a; unit -ti a. t :h n hanig - that- d- therE nc- ctmplt ru-latin beit%etn the pr.cc inmr.-ace AI l Q rtprr;c .ntcd an it- rTiC and i1 2i ' tpeid .tais niag-ritm3 rde -.t c-* tmril :h .......-- A...... - arind li.e mi ad.3i-z-r-e d e17-' rt nr t-tm; ct tradt d .-nit-ti ri. r-- -.n r--r n e-king - d t -:hingt r-rteia re e-ur i-ilntrltrin ak-nt ic- ome 2 perc,ni -it COr the' prtrl protitai- otl'- acr I-t, n-Ip lit- urn ln -.- 'l main.- lamrt.r in ljanar, i o-rh r.'rm trt prarn. parr ,r the rent tr--rn ac to: tamned a c,-n,lanr rerIl ectri'u tle r.r-tttd r;r-..:.orrtt the ituatn . ; -heJp Oit r.itu-nt-di -m otrc t r-grr tI- underhln m equilibruim rait --a tall- ht .- n in thu tIt tire n-mra l31 | *- clr-lize mi, In I') the 'IUgL-;lda echanriae rite rcant r.tt d: pre aIttd 1.hatirl in the i ei' Alutd 1- I-ihan ran-- .-an aribe. r in , m' torr i pccn -.Cr'-,aid hl I-" s ar- F6r atid m1l I reducing thu degr e i rerali '. a l CI.-il': th- n--min 1-A lIar -a -tr alua .- n had tcac.Ich-:d 42 prc--nt . -1 -. e:r- ilu3tmi-ri h- . I It hut ii, -t.t lFi8 | clrt:hanlce til -ti.... p-tu;nnin~ a- and anrd ,urpas- -................ .lhan_e- raw- had 1 pit- l It. I ii en t raking r-tI accoun o the tiedJ n lur.r 1"" 'a tll ani tm- cent -ut CFIP In t i) tht unrtr- t - -r - hinge f cede h-.auc- ot the .-. I Frice -.a3,r .-iC ini-t..dr tpr -- mt Ilul. l ru I e nc-i a -r-- hrtr: range 'hi d-l * nr. te: ; e B, l-iSi Furklt,h .rc.-I ih Fp-c 'mali--i il p.i-i ranou - in tL.n*Ltim r - ir . r-e.-pinc t. dN ric * \t rnal rr unritd and c xp.- 1i tIe,an irt-'- ing F-ric - m' -rh I.lin bLr *a,ll high duon' ;- h. h t ihi:h an -- unit.t I - t ---* .. 3 r.a-idl-tIa rth~ -;h.in,. rait at a rtu3a1;t,c milau .n th al r e l~~~~~~~~~ra m in tit r--. rav p'rctnt - 't DGEP durinng pr:n . -~l ur-'-, th ti II-.-el l Exchange rales and GDP growth in Yugoslavia and Turkey, 1976-83 C- -. -;-ud .z. r---' lrn! lu--~ iu- 19- -¾'i^ ';'Žl i m imm'a \u.lgc-;lasiaI L,I-hange rate = dinar; dollar; I> 2 1is. It n 1 I 24 3 3m 3 42 i Nlar.el cl!arin, rat- 223i 2t1 4 22 r' 2b R 34 Qsyrt alu.atitn IFp- trentI 2 i I it 11 21 1 42 n ?j i Inipi,rt ront; rIl'i i erct,I s I 4 '- 4 t 2 I'eal :DI ri-- ro th rate per--nt i 5 3 4 $ n r 3 2 I4 I -_ I Turk - E-L hange rite = Lira dollirs r1- I. lti t 24 3 31 1 I 1 1112 1-2 n 225 Marker clearinn rt- 31.3 -2 4 l3 ii 112' C'% er%aluatn!r' Iprc:1-nti Nlarket c-aring ratt %' ithout t, n C -h 4 4Q 0 i 1 I 4 -:-il prica rise 3S 3 hIll "I r .I Real C-P' 4r.nitlh rate ipercenti 7 4 3 2 I -] '4 -t!.- 44 4 I 1 r I. F crmnrate, ri. :na.le cl[ea-ne rate; percentage o en aluat l -n and tat. n le t-- ( n nl- in: -- tercc r-~ Inc -E i] ntularthe uz-1s i-a nd Turkich c- -.n rmlecduring lLCr- ir an 1%ii V i ) rt -pclr t I-l ; rC-tl di amIaXbl 45
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
- Page 8 and 9: 8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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- Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
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- Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Table 11. Structure of merchandise
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation