World Development Report 1984

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TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in developing countries, Low scenario and variants, 1985-95 (average annual percentage change) Exports of goods lInports of goods and nonfactor Exports of Exports of and nonfactor services manufactures primarygoods services Low Low Low Low,v Countrygroup case Low P Low Il case Lozni P Low II' case Low P Low II' case Low I Low II' All developing countries 4.7 4.0 5.1 7.5 6.1 8.0 2.2 2.2 2.4 5.1 4.3 5.4 Low-income 5.2 4.3 5.6 7.1 5.6 7.6 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.1 3.4 4.4 Asia 5.7 4.7 6.1 7.1 5.6 7.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.6 3.9 5.0 Africa 2.2 2.1 2.5 6.5 5.0 7.1 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.8 Middle-income Oil importers 5.7 4.7 6.2 7.6 6.1 8.1 2.4 2.4 2.6 5.6 4.5 6.0 Major exporters of manufactures 6.3 5.2 6.8 7.6 6.2 8.1 2.9 2.9 3.2 6.3 5.2 6.8 Other 2.8 2.3 3.2 7.2 5.8 7.8 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 2.1 Oil exporters 2.4 2.2 2.7 7.6 6.1 8.1 1.9 1.9 2.1 4.5 4.2 4.7 Note: These projections are based on a sample of ninety countries. a. Increased protection by developed countries. b. Slow growth in developed countries but improved policies in developing countries. cent a year. Many of the big debtors would experi- Capital flows and debt ence growth of export earnings above that average-major exporters of manufactures would have The discussion thus far has considered the effects the value of their exports grow at close to 15 per- of the performance of industrial countries and of cent a year-comfortably above the interest rate on developing-country policies on trade and the their debt of above 10 percent. growth of GDP. Almost as important as trade in What is needed to achieve these improvements? the long term, however, and far more critical in the The developing countries-and the industrial short to medium term, are the interrelated issues world-will suffer from any action that reduces of capital flows and debt. It is through borrowing trade (see Box 3.3). They therefore need to avoid from abroad that developing countries are able to overvalued exchange rates, to provide attractive supplement their own saving as well as to offset incentives for exports, and to promote efficient shortages of foreign exchange. Borrowing is an import substitution. Such policies would be twice opportunity; but in certain circumstances it is also blessed. Faster growth of exports and GDP would a snare. also generate a larger inflow of foreign capital. This Under the Low case and its variants, interest would supplement the extra saving that improved rates would be higher and the growth of exports policies would bring, all of which would then be and GDP lower than in the High case. If lenders invested more efficiently. The key to more saving wish to avoid debt expanding beyond the servicing and better investment lies in maintaining positive capacity of the borrower's economies, net lending real interest rates in the developing countries. would then be lower while the real cost of borrow- It is also imperative that developing countries ing would be higher. For the indebted sovereign increase the flexibility of their budgets-another borrower, the service of debt is a matter of political close parallel with the industrial countries. Many will, and strength of will depends on the cost of of the difficulties faced by middle-income coun- exercising it. The long-term prospect of receiving tries in the past decade have been due to height- capital inflows that are not large enough to cover ened public spending commitments, financed interest payments, combined with slow growth of either through external borrowing or through export earnings (as is threatened by the Low case), windfall gains from higher commodity prices. implies that the service of debt is economically, When these sources of finance diminish or dry up, and therefore politically, costly. For this reason the it is politically difficult to cut public spending, and long-term prospects for the world economy, and inflation results. hence for capital flows, depend heavily on creating 42
Box 3.2 Trade as an engine of growth F- rci-n trade a.r h ,-r anengim .td -:r,iitih te%p-,rt4I iet Ch3pter 5ih bh' - en am-rnr_ EWprt srt-chure oi ewleced developing inm die 1pin, mentri' inrouch ii4 ifett -*-ur.iri-s that traditicinalle specialized in countries Iperenht n. npr- ir rd . iuri:e all'atic-n l and a ,ngle pnrr.arv e -port manulataure-. i rene-i-ad prc-iducri' i, But dt -eliping are gainin.g a .cantfi:.. char.: .\ grAup- *:-uiti-ps *:port ;ire nc- me-`:hinc alI, *-t -e r. ,uch *-u tLntrie including linke-il I t., r..-. ih and le.:l oi Pr, India .hich ,cc-unt lr.hr athcul .u it - prtin ad,anco.d n.rinii:. thrd ti deeliping-c-iuntr pipulalie-n 4n. ; In rhe n,net-. nrh -:Enrtir mn the- U nited it -ldding Ch,nai has managed tc- rirsr ; 4 iat-.:s chani-- irn e pnrt; ILcgad hEhind the .h3rt .t rmanutacturt. in abcoutli c:l-nge, in rir- m rt r-h, e:.intmu per-ent .l nontuel .p-nt mee chrtti F -.-. rr.tniaintd a mnall and reline ':le Atri-- is he .inl r. gi r in e- ht, h 1i -nin,,snt ;hrt i-.(reice,Frnti In d .:pindonic i-n a ;inglt primat | . p ii t .Ci- Au'rrtiit. r Jr-i th .- dirninated bi, his n.-i i,mini,h-d ntrt Inal r1ar.--r .\Ith..h \rzntn I hi- d r-,iatin a-. tri.m primr. a n. oiid 'r1 ei-'- mier- --i -1rcv. p-i riTt r lb h y, l. pr-i-ucts di-es r,r mcan bhar te-retci,.n : n,,Iar - ih.,v -.t thI: Uniii..d tai,s .rd Jan.-,nd n--- lingEr matlar, Fng.r 4.l. r :9, *-pitted ;.mmli r p - iidu in ih, Ie' i ball o, iuntri, Japenid ..n de. -iiect-p c-iinlre ; tF ' - t ii r-, ninctr-rith -.nrtir. it krei ltil mnrkte r.hr lh.ir manita. turtd r ki-rt- In the tree, i r h-ur decades pr-cedintg .h. irt -ri n 1lc-tiat,.n, in ihe dnand ir i..r * rId I \ : rItra.de -il de. nl-pIng cu.Ln- t hi.:it r pi-tsr due ru , iuctuatI.: , ine fl ] tri4 r'c. alro,-i:it1- tait .i th,i -i da.-c-l- :r. i- ti inr indu;tril ci-iintrie; ctisu can n r! , !l .i,- e ,.H .. iic... -,. i i.c d d.. intrlie; I Fpercent d-..-id .:..n- imprrintr ut . thB dri.:r iti.in ,,i k-l -c--i -Heir-re .;.ii- It. * 3 r i. ii 4l, prtcen rI In rtlattcin t1. epxprtt te.- ar-i rnnuil3tures ha- ,- - * Crij'J -r. Zn tr.ad'- a i. mLmirt r, rtia- h.1-an-ii thr medium.- nd lc-n g-ricon;.- .il,. in the dt; 1i.pina . -untite- than in paite pi.,in a dae-:I-pirg-cc:unirx I |ji I lior d ..ini- r p-rri -n Ji E-eli.ip :iiiirnir .- malrl , .i ni-me in de.e-l, I ..p. -untrnit in the, Thb- -prtinc p- le ..- pn r .- lilie Thi maneiactut-:d \po.itt ac*r-unt i.'.. 1I-l's and r 1 id : .InD- I-n-: -c ; rInc - \ar 11 tuth,:c thai lie--ihar. tani -r pFpartintci-nsunip- e p.V. ircteae-dt. ia-t in Irnraiin -mn-.pi,: I,ni* L- -,i e--:en ic- epn- r ir in de: lI.p-e Ltiunir4es and are sut- I.- de-. -l 1ip. -.-untrt in-:- m in ih tr. * pit-' ind inci-,t zii..rh it- ili ilirtites i9r c.--.d- pr.idu-Jd , thir. I blc. tir eai:h I per-:--nt -:hange- inn rnl ini -t.3rial -2--uniri-:; d-- nit ad-: -.ale . i-i' , d-1 , .dn tien- s lcing a- ,r-arkt I- nt. me in de elIc-ped .. c-unirne- th, * *o | ~l-.pI r. .n - pinperti-.rncn.:e Th. e nene i. ir .r -dcping cnun tilutured ti .i.t li-m ! ),-piny-c -untr e p rr ittI I.1 : -. I c c, Pe t V-e.i, hi p.m-n- ep itt r, tena.in relai i ira: crit prciect- inctr-ased bh -nl-. u p:r:.-en' ir. th i-c th-a. dJ . I--pin,-cc-Lir. --pL-ris Ir it tartjr- T*r - rnil demiand nr iin- Ie-ilt- bu th, I - per:e.r in iht I pr.imir p iil t, rgu in InI . ill. acJien.d-.1 --- .iu. inc .-rie But -- i n- l iunit -je.i-I-png unri Nanitactiur-d pi:rts ir- .niei.eliiir, c.:untrtas intreas,d .t I.- iclt rhi am- !manutct.t:ur-- tiida-. act-: tint rtt ahc-tit thee fltt peri-ence t he In -- arnd i c-nrc on the d.-te--pad cip nrie- t in th, |h .it: :u'.- - ni n-u . .:-.I p-ri r.-.n; heat- this .ut Thir- h3a han nc lathl- 1bm1, tut had 3lrn,.-. i.e mn th- JIJr rate di elp-inc .c.unr muntrie* t % . iem, r,- i.l tluti hrt the e .r.. u at -inc--me c-t Jle--ped c.i-unrrie in ll: I ac:cmunt i. r a lar r, i p rt un iiin .trVi, de.-cntr.r-. epirt - and re il1CiC and maintaining cooperation on debt problems, rowers. While adjustment requires action by the rather than confrontation. indebted country itself, the degree of retrench- In the short term, the position is somewhat dif- ment and its cost to the country also depend on the ferent. Given the effects of the recession and the external environment in the next few years. growth of debt, debtors have to show that they are Because of the large current account deficits of prepared to pay interest out of their own income. many developing countries in the early 1980s, sub- This is necessary not only to anchor the value of stantial adjustments have been required to cover debt in the willingness to service it but also-in the interest obligations. The best way to have adjusted context of high real interest rates and of low would have been to combine cuts in spending with growth in indebted countries-to avoid explosive policies to switch production into exports and into growth of capitalized interest in relation to GDP. efficient import substitution. Switching usually An adverse world environment, however, makes requires a real depreciation in the exchange rate more costly the adjustments required of many bor- (see Box 3.4). The process is less costly if it does 43
Page 1:
Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 4 and 5:
Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
Page 6 and 7: labor markets. And they have a vest
Page 8 and 9: 8 The policy agenda 155 Population
Page 10 and 11: Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 12 and 13: Glossary Demographic terms informat
Page 14 and 15: I I
Page 16 and 17: countries regain their momentum of
Page 18 and 19: 4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 20 and 21: example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23: ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 24 and 25: etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27: FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29: 14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31: TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33: export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
Page 68 and 69: fertility in a changing world is a
Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
Page 82 and 83: largest city in 1950, will not even
Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89: North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105: saving because they come from the c
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acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
Page 290 and 291:
difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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