World Development Report 1984

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over time. The main focus of industrial countries in the real incomes of certain groups, they also prethe years ahead should be on developing ways to vent the adjustment to a country's emerging and reduce budget deficits. changing comparative advantage, which alone can ensure growing real incomes of all groups in the Microeconomic flexibility economy. The maintenance of an open trading system is, therefore, an important means of reducing In several areas of their economies-subsidies to microeconomic distortions. For example, protecobsolescent firms and industries, wage and other tion is costly to the country using it. The cost of policies affecting labor costs-industrial countries "saving" jobs is higher consumer prices and ineffineed to introduce greater flexibility in the way they ciencies in production (see Box 3.1), as well as loss accept and promote economic change. Though of potential jobs in export industries, particularly if protectionist policies might temporarily maintain other countries increase protection as a response. 40 Box 3.1 Costs of protection in textiles and clothing 1,l-r. .,rd dtir &i- , .. ':- 3ob, n ina I ii t -4., Tin . iTr.T tr $1 for every 7 cents gained by workers Z.- rrn.rr- -t ind t,rtri;e ba hr., o-rd t ri ri aj mubh -ir r. h-rr II d-rE pr; ri'i J r'rr: *.i i-.j r-; . r-r,dnt r - ain'i bin t- *r' Th- pr.-ril r Au'- --- . Tb.: hri 1 um studies estimated the jt% ...- - i uir I. p.nr p! ri .,n,. 1. .. 1 tn .' h % r e.h -..rler i., p.Frnl.i - costs (i .-ii Th I'll,: on the clothing .I -lr-' Th, ni. u-r -F. rint it lii½. r- .rl-. I-r. hr iU s.r her' . tr.iinal t.. '., . trade, which were much higher than .1'iIe 5l :andi -. irhnrr and h-. F *:- n .111 el--rt :_ ir-mm fT T ir irLt - it.. of tariffs alone. The cost per job Irrp It-I r!i nit u r h - !.lIIi rt- Ilii- i-ls ti- r b l. tl-; tE t p.rnlintli controls was esti- -\ranecnrn. in -i i, .u I-a1 I . rhir.t- ran.d ,...i r, J r- - C$390,000 in the late 1970s. ih.ar t,ich t'rr3rrni, .rE und.-'raitl P.-r pr-i-at h . t I. thrc--qu,aricr-j . di§- Because the individual worker lost only dr -i. lili ander- n d ' d .' *:rk-r. ir. r i, ti .hi-; riduTr. * 14 1i0) (before welfare benefits), the i.-;i i- .urlt ind lrhin .ii.l zihd ll T 1. nd n i L Ilr-., erL untnipi.-C t r nrl e- n. . -i-ie , was about C$375$000. ani'41ls !II ptr b not ' thf i'nT. L -tII Iiirci zr-ni Ir,cil in n *v v. .O. 1-d zr. .3 Thi" -i:ac n eeded to save each wo rker p r - . .: -Lin'-, T.-, i(i.il iC...nn bIll. i -mr1n., .. ti-I- i ill 111 ;ratio of over 70 tol. For every t.:r :r. .. -r.n ail -i-p .0 Ihi. ad1. r T-i. hib.i pi:* m ,i r rl i , u -1r .,i--'di-rci one and a half cents by which the worker I ir * p I.-i 1. r . r ni. ila:.,uf UIli rt tr. Ir,.nr. i high -- ! C 4 'liii icr rh-i.: :. rr;; would be better off, one Canadian dollar *hb: rIb-i k..t- .rr, n hr h,.r. .r-enrtr . rnn n r, -ur- , t- iI- ., would be wasted. -ntur. r i F in rh th ri. rt..tr t-nr-lh h i, C I-. .-. , r .!.i n -'. K- cib..Thr Develnpinz countries also use various .;n i-r. -- n-; rh. InJ li d l : Ihhil L-i t... ib tsslt.mc. 1-.1i-rt t'cr.r l' Th, h.gh--s t.irmirT l, ,n i4olhilai.ar. .:restrictions(along rI r t-r -r; c., -i n I' lirge ;ppi- I. - * .Lird in .iih,r I Ilit 1-. . m '-r.; with foreign exchange controls and - m ati I, r rh-r .. I. h i , r .ia.. n--it. I.r I I). broader measures such as industrial ii.'- -- Ih rA Si t d' 7,in 1,4 *-......urilrie-' .. i-*Td tr Olti e as - k.:-i ,.- I- ie .1 .cr r.c -. Ird r. -* irr,nt incentives) to :i,h, 1.i r, I snI.4 r,;n,1 ' l.,.nu- rl".- , 1 ir.- r I, r -. lord r I lIh t LI. rir, rT,,nrr t p,, -. Irridol'iJL t.rr- CC n,r.iil, such lm iilr,_ I t Il. il fi r-31i-l nl: -r-. t ir-.i t t-h, c . r .r- ,-. ,r; sIt r- - . ., >. r Ii'iit' h:a . -r-i production for rli-c uS ut i-anti: i . i t. It.. nel - -- i ver production foT export Mob I';-I.:- krn.-- n ar, ti),, n pr d . -irrpl. Ba,.vd narlket and r.jfa. irir over agri- .r: I' -r rt, ti iiI _. ,fi lr .r -.iri r , n : 1 0 arIII i, n? I tb.r ( r. Ir .:1 I h, ir n .rd , culture. FT I- rk-n and other measures b, n;i- . tl - r * if F. L -nted I '* luI.- t- ; a -t- *n n . .l*niai-l117. L ; 42'- oilii,.i I T .il,.Trl..I,fl.i Ir.r. .Trr.-wr,- .pro- - i. -n TbIr dir T-i rr lt ir,.lr r.:l-. i 14 . ' r.,. i 1. r.*,r.c . duction, - .in;lT-l.ii and trade; these hi Ii . tt-reih. ir T..:..I,d . ni. ihe lrm ld .t.'. *d1.,itrnn Il; p1.-uCI *.-i no ni r : r.- i.s ,I, .. i, -ri.e ..T.lCgrowth.Studiesof -l'' m r ! .5i-ifl-.. m - r..,! mi 1--I lol i dclt!.-T-l-Tnu fh_ nr-r- nT, .'lu- -I 11'. I- - l -.. .h protection, such as T- -.- . I l e, r I-r, I,. Ic r ' Ii- In rhi -lIt tli: TIl,et rmni.1-lri I, .. Iitl-u i li,-. r - -l .- I tid hr. 'hitE irni Ii. t ,r, i-I' t.itr TalliT r, I l- TI i. lit n . r i-n . lfriv . .s SUi;c and Canada, I -. ne in developing counr-ltind.ri Ir-nCr- -r. , tI , rind .iro rd ,-...i Tr. i t l r.- 1t*- Ttn. But j,nO--fC n -d-T-.p- countries, _ Ir. 'i, ii .:. Tit ,1 h.- d.d (i. .T p.rni.mn,ntflT F ri-u . fl, r-I- i 5 I' .. :-ni more uniform and i rl;.,1r I, - .. -r . i T 11) -T ri M -I,I . , ci --- e o..,ld tr ;1- -1n ri' I ii - .. ..- 0. ut',i patterns of incentives have perm I-p-ri-c : it. n lb.;,, I,d.il .' k.r , t . i.,i tic-J r in ir:rms of economic Ia-.br. 1.-b I hrh fra 31': t'r.- lii i ie n.j.-. ni. a n .-. un,n,i l-ir ri-rr TI _--ol i-c i-i'l_ a 15Th.. r.. 14 I-, I I-t St-Ti-. -,- - - ilh t rrn.iI cci, .1-.. at... ., t1U .- hii -- .i T--..-....iii. i- i A-iptircari iSTIT fl,. -. 2k- .t .- 1...i: I -cr1 , I . ,rI 1 hs .- ard I! r I- i... r r- h, r.-T t-, '-tI' I
An open trading system is also a way of capturing terms. Low-income Africa grows at 2.6 percent a the potential for increased integration between year, -0.7 in per capita terms. Even major exporters developed and developing countries. And, last but of manufactures manage GDP growth of only 4.4 not least, it is a sine qua non of a resolution of the percent a year, while growth of GDP in the other debt problem. middle-income oil importers falls to 3.5 percent a For the more advanced developing economies, year. the next stage in their progress will carry them into Overall, developing-country exports grow by 4.0 industries that have hitherto been the preserve of percent a year under Low I compared with 4.7 perthe industrial countries. Unless the industrial cent in the Low case; manufactures grow by 6.1 countries keep their markets open, they will percent compared with 7.5 percent; and primary thwart the newcomers' progress. By seeking to commodities, 2.2 percent as in the Low case. As a retain a monopoly of such industries, the indus- result, the developing countries reduce the growth trial countries will also be holding back their own in their imports, from 5.1 percent a year in the Low economic growth. case to 4.3 percent in Low I. All regions are affected: exports by the major exporters of manu- The threat of increased protectionism factures grow at only 5.2 percent a year, by other middle-income countries at 2.3 percent a year, and Slow growth in the industrial countries is the most by low-income Africa at a disastrously low 2.1 perlikely trigger for a significant increase in protection cent a year (see Table 3.6). directed against developing countries. It is also in this context that the adverse effects on the devel- The benefits of improved policies in developing countries oping countries would be most serious, since a further decline in their exports would slow their over- just as industrial countries might make matters all growth even more. To illustrate these worse (even within the Low scenario) by resorting implications, the Low case contains a variant (Low to protection, so developing countries can partly I) which assumes that governments in industrial offset the effects of slow growth in the industrial countries step up protection against imports from world by improving their own policies. This is developing countries (see Table 3.5). In other illustrated in Low lI-a second variant of the Low respects, the industrial countries' policies and per- case which assumes slow growth in the industrial formance are assumed to be unchanged. Under world but an improved performance by the develthese circumstances, low-income Asian countries oping countries. They would achieve faster GDP grow at 4.2 percent a year, only 2.6 in per capita growth by raising savings and investment rates, by increasing and diversifying their exports, and by using imports more efficiently as well (see Box 3.2). TABLE 3.5 As Table 3.5 shows, the improved policies of Growth of GDP in developing countries, Low Low II would allow GDP to grow in developing scenario and variants, 1985-95 (average annual percentage rhange) countries at an average rate of 5.1 percent a year, recovering half of the difference between the Low Increased Improved and High cases. Low-income Asian countries industrial- developing- would grow at 4.9 percent a year as against 5.3 Loa' country countryl Countnjgroup case protectionism policy percent under the High case, low-income Africa at 3.0 percent as against 3.2 percent in the High case. Developing countries 4.7 4.3 5.1 Major exporters of manufactures would manage Lowincome 4.6 4.2 49 5.7 percent a year, and other middle-income oil Africa 2.8 2.6 3.0 importers 4 percent. Middle-income oil Developing-country exports of primary comimporters modities would grow at 2.4 percent a year, but Major exporters exports of manufactures would grow at 8.0 percent Other 3.8 3.5 4.0 a year (Table 3.6). That would give the developing Middle-income oil countries overall export growth of 5.1 percent a exporters 4.7 4.6 5.0 year compared with 6.4 percent in the High case, a. Low 1. but 4.7 percent in the Low case; adding inflation, b. Low II. export earnings would rise at more than 13.0 per- 4-1
Page 1:
Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 4 and 5: Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
Page 6 and 7: labor markets. And they have a vest
Page 8 and 9: 8 The policy agenda 155 Population
Page 10 and 11: Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 12 and 13: Glossary Demographic terms informat
Page 14 and 15: I I
Page 16 and 17: countries regain their momentum of
Page 18 and 19: 4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 20 and 21: example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23: ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 24 and 25: etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27: FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29: 14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31: TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33: export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
Page 68 and 69: fertility in a changing world is a
Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
Page 82 and 83: largest city in 1950, will not even
Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89: North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105:
saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107:
acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119:
Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129:
TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131:
effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135:
FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137:
Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
Page 138 and 139:
few births; to encourage spacing, T
Page 140 and 141:
Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143:
Box"7.1 Family planning for health
Page 144 and 145:
FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
Page 146 and 147:
132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
Page 148 and 149:
TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
Page 150 and 151:
TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
Page 152 and 153:
may be delaying a first pregnancy,
Page 154 and 155:
family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
Page 158 and 159:
Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
Page 160 and 161:
medical examination was not always
Page 162 and 163:
measuring social acceptability, or
Page 164 and 165:
Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
Page 168 and 169:
sanguine, however, as soon as one t
Page 170 and 171:
TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
Page 172 and 173:
Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
Page 174 and 175:
FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
Page 176 and 177:
improving the availability of famil
Page 178 and 179:
Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
Page 180 and 181:
Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
Page 182 and 183:
FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
Page 186 and 187:
Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
Page 188 and 189:
FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
Page 190 and 191:
able several types of condoms, pill
Page 192 and 193:
housing schemes to parents with onl
Page 194 and 195:
and training, data collection and a
Page 196 and 197:
9 Ten years of experience Much that
Page 198 and 199:
ecause few effective methods are of
Page 200 and 201:
Population data supplement The six
Page 202 and 203:
Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
Page 204 and 205:
190 Births and total fertility =Ice
Page 206 and 207:
Table 1. Population projections Rat
Page 208 and 209:
Table 2. Population composition Low
Page 210 and 211:
Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
Page 212 and 213:
Table 5. Status of women Number enr
Page 214 and 215:
Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
Page 216 and 217:
Bibliographical note This Report ha
Page 218 and 219:
Background papers Note: Source refe
Page 220 and 221:
-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
Page 222 and 223:
I I
Page 224 and 225:
Table 10. Structure of merchandise
Page 226 and 227:
Key In each table, economies are li
Page 228 and 229:
same order is used in all tables. T
Page 230 and 231:
Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
Page 232 and 233:
Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
Page 234 and 235:
Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
Page 236 and 237:
Table 3. Structure of production GD
Page 238 and 239:
Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
Page 240 and 241:
Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
Page 242 and 243:
Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
Page 244 and 245:
Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
Page 246 and 247:
Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
Page 248 and 249:
Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Table 12. Origin and destination of
Page 256 and 257:
Table 13. Origin and destination of
Page 258 and 259:
Table 14. Balance of payments and r
Page 260 and 261:
Table 15. Flow of public and public
Page 262 and 263:
Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265:
Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
Page 266 and 267:
Table 18. Official development assi
Page 268 and 269:
Table 19. Population growth and pro
Page 270 and 271:
Table 20. Demographic and fertility
Page 272 and 273:
Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
Page 274 and 275:
Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
Page 276 and 277:
Table 23. Indicators related to lif
Page 278 and 279:
Table 24. Health-related indicators
Page 280 and 281:
Table 25. Education Number Number e
Page 282 and 283:
Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
Page 284 and 285:
Table 27. Central government curren
Page 286 and 287:
Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
Page 288 and 289:
Technical notes This edition of the
Page 290 and 291:
difficulties in assigning subsisten
Page 292 and 293:
series in national currencies are a
Page 294 and 295:
Public loans are external obligatio
Page 296 and 297:
estimates, the total fertility rate
Page 298 and 299:
expenditure and current revenue sho
Page 300:
Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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