World Development Report 1984

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TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita, 1960-95 (average annual percentage change) 1985-95 Higig Low Increased Impnroved Country group 1960-73 1973-79 1980-85 case case protection policies Alldevelopingcountries 3.7 2.0 0.7 3.5 2.7 2.3 3.1 Low-income 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.4 2.7 2.4 3.0 Asia 3.4 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.0 2.6 3.3 Africa 1.0 -1.0 -1.6 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.3 Middle-income Oil importers 3.8 3.3 -0.6 3.6 2.6 1.9 3.1 Majorexporters of manufactures 4.4 3.6 -0.3 4.4 3.3 2.4 3.8 Other 2.6 1.7 -0.9 1.5 1.0 0.7 1.2 Oil exporters 4.3 2.3 -0.4 2.7 2.0 1.9 2.3 Industrial countries 3.9 2.1 1.5 3.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 per capita income would grow at only 1 percent a cent a year over the ten years. Middle-income oil year. China and India would grow at 4.6 percent a exporters would have a GDP growth of 4.7 percent year, India at only 2.5 percent a year in per capita a year, 2.0 percent in per capita terms. As oil prices terms. Countries such as Korea and other major rise, however, their GDY would grow much faster exporters of manufactures, affected only by the because of the continued improvement in their slower growth of their world markets, would get terms of trade. the capital they need to keep growing at 3.3 per- The trade outlook would mirror growth for the cent or more a year in per capita terms, for a total different groups of developing countries. Exports growth of 5.2 percent. by all developing countries would grow at 4.7 per- Other less creditworthy countries, such as Brazil cent a year during 1985-95 (see Table 3.3). Manuand Mexico, would grow less, especially in the late factured exports would expand at about 7.5 per- 1980s, while their adjustment continued; in the cent a year compared with 9.7 percent in the High early 1990s their growth would speed up. With case. The reduction in growth rates of manufactheir populations growing at 2.3 percent a year, per tured exports would be proportionately much capita income of middle-income oil-importing smaller than that of industrial-country growth viscountries as a group would grow at only 2.6 per- a-vis the High case because, even with some addi- TABLE 3.3 Change in trade in developing countries, 1965-95 (average annual percentage change) Merchandise exports' Exports of manufactures 1985-95 1985-95 High Low High Low Country group 1965-73 1973-80 1980-85 case case 1965-73 1973-80 1980-85 case case Alldevelopingcountries 6.3 3.1 5.5 6.4 4.7 14.9 10.6 8.1 9.7 7.5 Low-income 3.3 5.4 5.0 6.8 5.2 6.4 6.9 8.2 9.3 7.1 Asia 2.9 7.6 5.4 7.5 5.7 6.6 7.4 8.5 9.3 7.2 Africa 4.0 -1.3 3.5 3.3 2.2 4.5 0.5 0.9 8.9 6.6 Middle-income Oil importers 8.1 7.6 6.6 7.5 5.7 18.2 11.5 8.1 9.7 7.6 Major exporters of manufactures 10.5 9.6 7.2 8.2 6.3 18.6 12.1 8.4 9.8 7.6 Other 4.8 3.7 4.1 4.0 2.8 15.6 7.1 5.0 9.0 7.3 Oil exporters 5.7 -0.8 4.1 4.1 2.4 12.7 7.9 7.4 10.5 7.7 Note: Projections are based on a sample of ninety countries. . . Not available. 36
tional protection in industrial countries, manufac- 1995. The more successful would see their develtured exports would still grow largely in line with opment proceed as Korea's did in the 1960s and the supply capacity of developing countries. As in early 1970s. They would begin to rely more on the past, exports of primary commodities, how- markets and less on government directives for the ever, would grow more slowly than growth in the allocation of resources. And they would pursue industrial economies. more outward-oriented trade policies. Others Under the Low case, net loan disbursements would not, so there is likely to be considerable (private and official) plus official transfers to the dispersion around the average of 5.7 percent developing countries would fall in real terms, from growth for the middle-income group. Oil $68 billion in 1983 to $63 billion in 1995, while importers other than the major exporters of manudeveloping countries would pay $58 billion in factures would grow at only 4.3 percent a year, and interest (see Table 3.4). oil exporters at 5.4 percent a year. Under the High case, the poorest countries The High case and developing countries would grow at 3.2 percent to 5.3 percent a year, with several Asian countries doing better. Low- In the High case, the prospects for developing income African countries would still do badly; countries would greatly improve. Their GDP even in the High case, per capita income would fail would grow at about 5.5 percent a year, almost as to rise. This is in part because the market outlook fast as it averaged in the 1960s (see Table 3.1), and for these countries' commodity exports is not very at 3.5 percent in per capita terms. They would good. The volume of such exports is projected to receive somewhat higher real prices for a larger increase only slightly. At the same time, these volume of exports, and credit would be available at countries' weak financial position means signifilower interest rates. cant increases in commercial lending to them are The major exporters of manufactures would do unlikely, so they must continue to rely on concesbest, with GDP growth at 6.3 percent a year, some sional assistance for the bulk of their capital countries could manage 8 percent or more. Such transfers. rapid growth would imply that they were moving <strong>World</strong> trade would grow at about 7 percent a into more technology-intensive products-as is year in real terms, given global GDP growth of already happening in Korea with heavy engineer- about 5 percent. In a world of freer trade, trade ing, for example, and in Singapore with precision would grow faster in relation to GDP than it did in engineering. the 1960s. Exports of manufactures from develop- Some of the middle-income countries-such as ing countries would grow at 9.7 percent a year, Malaysia, Mexico, Thailand, and Turkey-could exports of primary products at 3.4 percent (see also make major structural progress in the years to Table 3.3). Exports of primary goods Merchandise imports" 1985-95 1985-95 High Low High Low 1965-73 1973-80 1980 85 case case 1965-73 1973-80 1980-85 case case Couittrygroup 5.0 0.9 4.0 3.4 2.1 6.4 5.9 3.2 7.2 5.1 All developing countries 1.8 4.5 2.6 4.1 3.1 0.6 6.4 3.5 5.9 4.1 Low-income 0.3 7.9 2.1 4.6 3.6 -0.6 8.7 4.1 6.4 4.6 Asia 4.0 -1.4 3.8 2.8 1.9 3.5 0.1 1.1 3.6 1.6 Africa Middle-income 4.4 4.5 4.5 3.2 2.4 7.7 4.6 2.2 7.6 5.6 Oil importers Major exporters 5.2 6.0 4.8 3.8 2.9 9.7 5.3 2.8 8.4 6.3 of manufactures 3.7 3.0 3.9 2.0 1.2 4.6 3.2 -0.3 3.9 1.9 Other 3.6 -1.1 3.9 3.3 1.8 6.6 9.3 5.4 7.1 4.5 Oil exporters a. Projections include exports and imports of nonfactor services. 37
Page 1: Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 4 and 5: Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
Page 6 and 7: labor markets. And they have a vest
Page 8 and 9: 8 The policy agenda 155 Population
Page 10 and 11: Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 12 and 13: Glossary Demographic terms informat
Page 14 and 15: I I
Page 16 and 17: countries regain their momentum of
Page 18 and 19: 4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 20 and 21: example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23: ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 24 and 25: etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27: FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29: 14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31: TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33: export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
Page 68 and 69: fertility in a changing world is a
Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
Page 82 and 83: largest city in 1950, will not even
Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89: North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
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get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
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youths, who are presumably able to
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saving because they come from the c
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acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
Page 242 and 243:
Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Table 12. Origin and destination of
Page 256 and 257:
Table 13. Origin and destination of
Page 258 and 259:
Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265:
Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
Page 290 and 291:
difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
Page 294 and 295:
Public loans are external obligatio
Page 296 and 297:
estimates, the total fertility rate
Page 298 and 299:
expenditure and current revenue sho
Page 300:
Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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