World Development Report 1984

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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and Sierra Leone, countries did not worsen in the 1970s (see Table public expenditure has increased despite budget- 2.8). In some countries-India being a prominent ary constraints. In many countries domestic sav- example-they even improved. Nonetheless, disings collapsed in the 1970s. In Ethiopia the savings tortions in the domestic financial system made the rate declined from about 12 percent to 3 percent problems of domestic adjustment to external pres- (1973-82); Tanzania from 16 percent (1967) to 9 per- sures more difficult. Thus Turkey in 1977-79 maincent (1981); Sudan from 10 percent (1970) to about tained fixed nominal deposit rates in the face of 3 percent (1978); Ghana from about 15 percent accelerating inflation. Brazil reduced monetary (1970) to 3 percent (1981); Kenya from about 15 correction on financial assets in 1980. percent (early 1970s) to 9 percent (1981); and Zimbabwe from about 20 percent in the early 1970s to Effects of the recent recession about 10 percent in 1981. Despite foreign capital inflows, the rate of capital accumulation also fell In 1974-75 many developing countries were able to considerably in sub-Saharan Africa. compensate for the deterioration of trading oppor- For oil exporters, the rise in oil prices consider- tunities by exploiting the better opportunities for ably increased their incomes. But the volume of the migration of labor and for importing capital. their exports grew very slowly and the booming Between 1979 and 1983, by contrast, most developenergy sector had a depressing effect on other ing countries initially-and virtually all ultiparts of the economy. After 1982, when it became mately-found their external circumstances detericlear that the predictions of their oil revenues had orating in all significant respects. been too optimistic, their relatively slow GDP Weak demand in the industrial countries during growth of the 1970s was compounded by general 1980-82 was the main cause of falling export prices deflation in an attempt to reduce imports (see for developing countries (see Table 2.7). Prices for Box 2.4). industrial raw materials fell for the additional rea- As with the industrial countries, harsher exter- son that high interest rates discouraged storage, nal conditions in the 1970s exacerbated the conse- while food prices dropped because of bumper quences of various policy-induced distortions in world harvests. Overall, the prices of primary many developing countries. A common response products in relation to those of manufactures in many middle-income countries (Brazil, Korea, reached a post-1945 low in 1982. In 1983, as eco- Philippines, Turkey, and Yugoslavia) to the 1973- nomic recovery began in industrial countries, and 74 rise in oil prices was to stimulate demand as some supplies were limited by unfavorable through expansionary monetary and fiscal policies weather, raw material prices started to rise again. and then to finance the resulting current account Nevertheless, they remained lower than in 1979, deficits through commercial borrowing. While and almost all developing countries faced worse much of this borrowing went to finance invest- terms of trade by 1983 than they had in 1980. ment, the rates of return to both public and private In volume terms, the developing countries' investment were declining. Among the major bor- exports of raw materials and fuels fell absolutely rowers, incremental capital-output ratios-the during the recession. Exports of food, always relaamount of extra investment needed to produce an tively insensitive to income, continued to grow extra unit of output-rose, for example, from less (see Table 2.9). Exports of manufactures, having than 3 in Brazil in 1970-75 to nearly 4 in 1975-80, grown at 10.6 percent a year between 1973 and and from 3.6 to 4.5 in the Philippines. Inefficiency 1980, rose at only 6.9 percent a year between 1980 increased for a variety of reasons: shifts toward and 1983. Given the sluggish GDP growth in capital-intensive industry, low capacity utilization industrial countries, however, developing counin various sectors, and inefficient use of resources tries did manage to increase their share of world in expanding the public sector. markets for manufactures. Countries which saw an improvement in their Among developing countries, one of the differterms of trade in the early 1970s also expanded ences that weighed even more heavily in the their public spending. But since the improvement recent recession than in the two preceding decades was transitory, the extra public expenditure was between inward- and outward-looking trade increased public sector deficits and exacerbated policies. Previous World Development Reports have balance of payments and debt servicing problems. suggested that outward-looking policies-those in Apart from low-income Africa, the trends in sav- which there is rough equality between the incenings and investment rates in most developing tives for exporting and import-competing activi- 26
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Page 1: Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 4 and 5: Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
Page 6 and 7: labor markets. And they have a vest
Page 8 and 9: 8 The policy agenda 155 Population
Page 10 and 11: Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 12 and 13: Glossary Demographic terms informat
Page 14 and 15: I I
Page 16 and 17: countries regain their momentum of
Page 18 and 19: 4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 20 and 21: example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23: ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 24 and 25: etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27: FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29: 14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31: TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33: export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
Page 68 and 69: fertility in a changing world is a
Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
Page 82 and 83: largest city in 1950, will not even
Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89: North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91:
IBox 4.6 Three views of population
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TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
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Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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implied by a simple division of tot
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and on farms. But the evidence on e
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get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
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youths, who are presumably able to
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saving because they come from the c
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acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
Page 200 and 201:
Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
Page 204 and 205:
190 Births and total fertility =Ice
Page 206 and 207:
Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
Page 210 and 211:
Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
Page 216 and 217:
Bibliographical note This Report ha
Page 218 and 219:
Background papers Note: Source refe
Page 220 and 221:
-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
Page 222 and 223:
I I
Page 224 and 225:
Table 10. Structure of merchandise
Page 226 and 227:
Key In each table, economies are li
Page 228 and 229:
same order is used in all tables. T
Page 230 and 231:
Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
Page 232 and 233:
Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
Page 234 and 235:
Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
Page 236 and 237:
Table 3. Structure of production GD
Page 238 and 239:
Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
Page 240 and 241:
Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
Page 242 and 243:
Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
Page 244 and 245:
Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
Page 246 and 247:
Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
Page 248 and 249:
Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Table 12. Origin and destination of
Page 256 and 257:
Table 13. Origin and destination of
Page 258 and 259:
Table 14. Balance of payments and r
Page 260 and 261:
Table 15. Flow of public and public
Page 262 and 263:
Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265:
Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
Page 266 and 267:
Table 18. Official development assi
Page 268 and 269:
Table 19. Population growth and pro
Page 270 and 271:
Table 20. Demographic and fertility
Page 272 and 273:
Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
Page 274 and 275:
Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
Page 276 and 277:
Table 23. Indicators related to lif
Page 278 and 279:
Table 24. Health-related indicators
Page 280 and 281:
Table 25. Education Number Number e
Page 282 and 283:
Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
Page 284 and 285:
Table 27. Central government curren
Page 286 and 287:
Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
Page 288 and 289:
Technical notes This edition of the
Page 290 and 291:
difficulties in assigning subsisten
Page 292 and 293:
series in national currencies are a
Page 294 and 295:
Public loans are external obligatio
Page 296 and 297:
estimates, the total fertility rate
Page 298 and 299:
expenditure and current revenue sho
Page 300:
Bibliography of data sources Nation
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