World Development Report 1984

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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OXFORD LONDON GLASGOW TORONTO MELBOURNE WELLINGTON HONG KONG TOKYO KUALA LUMPUR SINGAPORE JAKARTA DELHI BOMBAY CALCUTTA MADRAS KARACHI NAIROBI DAR ES SALAAM CAPE TOWN " 1984 ky the Interniationial Bank for Reconstruictioni and DevelopmientilThe World Bank 1818HStreet, NW. . .. t D.C. 20433 U.S.A. First printing Juhly l984 All rights reserved. No part of this publication mail be reproduced, stored in a retrievyal system, or transmitted in any form or byi aniy means, electronic, mechanical, phiotocopying, recording, or othleru'ise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Maniufactiured in the United States of America. The denominations, the classifications, the boundaries, and the colors used in mlapls in World Development Report do not implu on thle part of The World Bank and its a-any iudgmieit on thie legal or othier status of an y territory, or anly endorsemnent or acceptance of an y bou71ndary. ISBN 0-19-520459-X clothi ISBN 0-19-520460-3 paperback ISSN 0163-5085 Thle Library of Congress has cataloged this serial publication as follows: World developmnent report. 1978- [New YorkI Oxford Universityl Press. v. 27cml. annual. Po7blishled for The World Banhk 1. Underdeveloped areas-Periodicals. 2. Economiic development Periodicals l. Interntational Ban-kfor Reconstruction and Dev,elopmrient. HC59.7.W659 330.9'172'4 78-67086
Foreword This Report is the seventh in this annual series that governments and their peoples have a wide assessing development issues. This year the focus range of views on this subject. is on population change and its links with develop- Even with success in efforts to slow population ment. Population growth does not provide the growth, future population growth will still be drama of financial crisis or political upheaval, but heavily concentrated in what are now the poorer as this Report shows, its significance for shaping areas of the globe. Thus the average level of the world of our children and grandchildren is at human welfare will depend largely on the degree least as great. What governments and their peo- of economic and social transformation in those ples do today to influence our demographic future areas. The poverty of those areas cannot be blamed will set the terms for development strategy well on rapid population growth alone; the causes of into the next century. Failure to act now to slow poverty go well beyond population change. Nor growth is likely to mean a lower quality of life for will reducing population growth alone ensure their millions of people. In the poorest countries of the economic transformation. But this Report shows world, and among the poorest groups within that slowing the pace of population growth can countries, poverty contributes to high mortality make a difference-and that the ingredients for and even higher fertility. It thereby creates a doing so are also those that will increase economic vicious circle: the slow pace at which development growth. reaches the poor contributes to rapid population The analysis of the population situation follows growth, making the elimination of poverty increas- our annual review of global economic developingly difficult. Slowing population growth is a dif- ments, which as in previous years occupies the ficult challenge to humanity-but a challenge that first part of the World Development Report. It might must and can be successfully addressed. be argued that the general public remains insuffi- On the one hand, the situation is grave: this ciently aware of the growing links among nations Report concludes that in some countries develop- over the past few decades, and of the extent today ment may not be possible at all unless slower pop- of international economic interdependence. In an ulation growth can be achieved soon, before increasingly interdependent world, low growth, higher real incomes would bring fertility down fiscal and labor market problems, and resulting spontaneously. On the other hand, there is reason inflation in industrial countries have taken a heavy for hope: the experience of the past decade shows toll in developing countries. Exports have sufthat education, health, and other development fered, fear of protectionism has increased, and measures that raise parents' hopes for their chil- high real interest rates have made debt servicing a dren, along with widespread access to family plan- costly burden. If the industrial countries fail to ning services, create a powerful combination in regain the growth rates they managed in the 1950s reducing fertility. and 1960s, many countries in the developing The discussion of population places special world will have great difficulty making progress in emphasis on the role of public policy in an area the years ahead. Indeed, the prospects for much of where fundamental human values are at stake. sub-Saharan Africa will be particularly grave. Population is a subject that touches issues central But it is also apparent that even in a harsh interto the human condition, including personal free- national climate, the developing nations can take dom and the very definition of economic and social actions to improve their own economic perforprogress. This Report tries to do it full justice, in a mance. Developing countries share the problems sensitive and thought-provoking way, recognizing of the developed, from fiscal deficits to distorted iii
Page 1: Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 6 and 7: labor markets. And they have a vest
Page 8 and 9: 8 The policy agenda 155 Population
Page 10 and 11: Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 12 and 13: Glossary Demographic terms informat
Page 14 and 15: I I
Page 16 and 17: countries regain their momentum of
Page 18 and 19: 4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 20 and 21: example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23: ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 24 and 25: etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27: FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29: 14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31: TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33: export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55:
over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57:
TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59:
Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61:
nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63:
Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65:
developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67:
themselves and, by caring for young
Page 68 and 69:
fertility in a changing world is a
Page 70 and 71:
nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73:
Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75:
scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77:
Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79:
FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81:
Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
Page 82 and 83:
largest city in 1950, will not even
Page 84 and 85:
FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87:
government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89:
North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91:
IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93:
TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95:
Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97:
implied by a simple division of tot
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and on farms. But the evidence on e
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get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103:
youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105:
saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107:
acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109:
food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111:
is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
Page 116 and 117:
emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119:
Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121:
6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
Page 126 and 127:
etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129:
TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131:
effectiveness of existing laws, ins
Page 132 and 133:
in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135:
FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
Page 140 and 141:
Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143:
Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
Page 146 and 147:
132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
Page 148 and 149:
TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
Page 150 and 151:
TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
Page 152 and 153:
may be delaying a first pregnancy,
Page 154 and 155:
family planning and maternal and ch
Page 156 and 157:
clients may develop can be promptly
Page 158 and 159:
Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
Page 162 and 163:
measuring social acceptability, or
Page 164 and 165:
Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
Page 168 and 169:
sanguine, however, as soon as one t
Page 170 and 171:
TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
Page 172 and 173:
Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
Page 176 and 177:
improving the availability of famil
Page 178 and 179:
Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
Page 180 and 181:
Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
Page 182 and 183:
FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
Page 184 and 185:
growth. Fertility has declined in t
Page 186 and 187:
Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
Page 190 and 191:
able several types of condoms, pill
Page 192 and 193:
housing schemes to parents with onl
Page 194 and 195:
and training, data collection and a
Page 196 and 197:
9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
Page 200 and 201:
Population data supplement The six
Page 202 and 203:
Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
Page 204 and 205:
190 Births and total fertility =Ice
Page 206 and 207:
Table 1. Population projections Rat
Page 208 and 209:
Table 2. Population composition Low
Page 210 and 211:
Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
Page 212 and 213:
Table 5. Status of women Number enr
Page 214 and 215:
Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
Page 216 and 217:
Bibliographical note This Report ha
Page 218 and 219:
Background papers Note: Source refe
Page 220 and 221:
-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
Page 222 and 223:
I I
Page 224 and 225:
Table 10. Structure of merchandise
Page 226 and 227:
Key In each table, economies are li
Page 228 and 229:
same order is used in all tables. T
Page 230 and 231:
Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
Page 232 and 233:
Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
Page 234 and 235:
Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
Page 236 and 237:
Table 3. Structure of production GD
Page 238 and 239:
Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
Page 240 and 241:
Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
Page 242 and 243:
Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
Page 244 and 245:
Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
Page 246 and 247:
Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
Page 248 and 249:
Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Table 12. Origin and destination of
Page 256 and 257:
Table 13. Origin and destination of
Page 258 and 259:
Table 14. Balance of payments and r
Page 260 and 261:
Table 15. Flow of public and public
Page 262 and 263:
Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265:
Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
Page 266 and 267:
Table 18. Official development assi
Page 268 and 269:
Table 19. Population growth and pro
Page 270 and 271:
Table 20. Demographic and fertility
Page 272 and 273:
Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
Page 274 and 275:
Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
Page 276 and 277:
Table 23. Indicators related to lif
Page 278 and 279:
Table 24. Health-related indicators
Page 280 and 281:
Table 25. Education Number Number e
Page 282 and 283:
Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
Page 284 and 285:
Table 27. Central government curren
Page 286 and 287:
Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
Page 288 and 289:
Technical notes This edition of the
Page 290 and 291:
difficulties in assigning subsisten
Page 292 and 293:
series in national currencies are a
Page 294 and 295:
Public loans are external obligatio
Page 296 and 297:
estimates, the total fertility rate
Page 298 and 299:
expenditure and current revenue sho
Page 300:
Bibliography of data sources Nation
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