World Development Report 1984

estimates, the total fertility rates in the industrial able, program statistics are used; these include
economies were assumed to remain constant until India, Indonesia, and Zimbabwe. Program statis-
1985-90 and then to increase to replacement level tics may understate contraceptive prevalence
by 2010. because they do not measure use of methods such
International migration rates are based on past as rhythm, withdrawal, or abstinence, or of contraand
present trends in migration flow. The esti- ceptives not obtained through the official family
mates of future net migration are speculative. For planning program. The data refer to a variety of
most economies the net migration rates were years, generally not more than two years distant
assumed to be zero by 2000, but for a few they from those specified.
were assumed to be zero by 2025. All summary measures are weighted by popula-
The estimates of the hypothetical size of the sta- tion.
tionary population and the assumed year of reaching
replacement-level fertility are speculative. They Table 21. Labor force
should not be regarded as predictions. They are
included to provide a summary indication of the The population of working age refers to the populalong-run
implications of recent fertility and mortal- tion aged 15-64. The estimates are based on the
ity trends on the basis of highly stylized assump- population estimates of the World Bank for 1981
tions. A fuller description of the methods and and previous years. The summary measures are
assumptions used to calculate the estimates is weighted by population.
available from the Population, Health, and Nutri- The laborforce comprises economically active pertion
Department of the World Bank. sons aged 10 years and over, including the armed
forces and the unemployed, but excluding house-
Table 20. Demographic and fertility-related wives, students, and other economically inactive
indicators groups. Agriculture, industry, and services are
defined in the same manner as in Table 2. The
The crude birth and death rates indicate the number estimates of the sectoral distribution of the labor
of live births and deaths per thousand population force are from International Labour Office (ILO),
in a year. They are from the same sources men- Labour Force Estimates and Projections, 1950-2000,
tioned in the note for Table 19. Percentage changes and from the World Bank. The summary measures
are computed from unrounded data. are weighted by labor force.
The total fertility rate represents the number of The labor force growth rates were derived from the
children that would be born per woman, if she Bank's population projections and from ILO data
were to live to the end of her childbearing years on age-specific activity rates in the source cited
and bear children at each age in accord with pre- above. The summary measures for 1960-70 and
vailing age-specific fertility rates. The rates given 1970-82 are weighted by labor force in 1970; those
are from the same sources mentioned in the note for 1980-2000, by estimates of labor force in 1980.
for Table 19. The application of ILO activity rates to the
The percetntage of married womnen of childbearinig age Bank's latest population estimates may be inapusinig
contraception refers to women who are prac- propriate for some economies in which there have
ticing, or whose husbands are practicing, any form been important changes in unemployment and
of contraception. These generally comprise male underemployment, in international and internal
and female sterilization, intrauterine device (IUD), migration, or in both. The labor force projections
condom, injectable contraceptives, spermicides, for 1980-2000 should thus be treated with caution.
diaphragm, rhythm, withdrawal, and abstinence.
The figures for Bulgaria, Denmark, Poland, and Table 22. Urbanization
Romania, however, as well as the 1970 figures for
the United Kingdom, exclude sterilizationi. Women The data on urban population as a percentage of total
of childbearing age are generally women aged 15- populationi are from the UN Patterns of Urban and
49, although for some countries contraceptive Rural PopulationT Growth, 1980, supplemented by
usage is measured for other age groups. data from the World Bank and from various issues
Data are mainly derived from the UN Monitoring of the UN Demographic Yearbook.
Report and publications of the World Fertility Sur- The growth rates of urban population were calcuvey
and the Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. For lated from the World Bank's population estimates;
a few countries for which no survey data are avail- the estimates of urban population shares were cal-
282