World Development Report 1984

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Public loans are external obligations of public final repayment of principal. The grace period is debtors, including the national government, its the interval between the agreement date and the agencies, and autonomous public bodies. Publicly date of the first repayment of principal. guaranteed loans are external obligations of pri- The summary measures in this table are vate debtors that are guaranteed for repayment by weighted by the amounts of loans. a public entity. The data in this table and in successive tables on Table 18. Official development assistance from debt do not cover nonguaranteed private debt OECD and OPEC members because comprehensive data are not available; for some borrowers such debt is substantial. The debt Official development assistance (ODA) consists of net contracted for purchases of military equipment is disbursements of loans and grants made at concesalso excluded because it usually is not reported. sional financial terms by official agencies of the members of the Development Assistance Commit- Table 16. External public debt and tee (DAC) of the Organisation for Economic Codebt service ratio operation and Development (OECD) and of the members of the Organization of Petroleum Export- External public debt outstanding and disbursed repre- ing Countries (OPEC) with the objective of prosents the amount of public and publicly guaran- moting economic development and welfare. It teed loans that has been disbursed, net of includes the value of technical cooperation and repayments of principal and write-offs at year-end. assistance. All data shown were supplied by the In estimating external public debt as a percentage OECD. of GNP, GNP was converted from national curren- Amounts shown are net disbursements to develcies to dollars at the average official exchange rate oping countries and multilateral institutions. The for the year in question. The summary measures disbursements to multilateral institutions are now are weighted by GNP in current dollars. reported for all DAC members on the basis of the Interest payments are those on the disbursed and date of issue of notes; some DAC members previoutstanding public and publicly guaranteed debt ously reported on the basis of the date of encashin foreign currencies, goods, or services; they ment. Net bilateral flows to low-income countries include commitment charges on undisbursed debt exclude unallocated bilateral flows and all disif information on those charges was available. bursements to multilateral institutions. Debt service is the sum of interest payments and The nominal values shown in the summary for repayments of principal on external public and ODA from OECD countries were converted into publicly guaranteed debt. The ratio of debt service 1980 prices using the dollar GNP deflator. This to exports of goods and services is one of several deflator is based on price increases in OECD counrules of thumb commonly used to assess the ability tries (excluding Greece, Portugal, and Turkey) to service debt. The average ratios of debt service measured in dollars. It takes into account the parto GNP for the economy groups are weighted by ity changes between the dollar and national cur- GNP in current dollars. The average ratios of debt rencies. For example, when the dollar depreciates, service to exports of goods and services are price increases measured in national currencies weighted by exports of goods and services in cur- have to be adjusted upward by the amount of the rent dollars. depreciation to obtain price increases in dollars. The table, in addition to showing totals for Table 17. Terms of public borrowing OPEC, shows totals for the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC). The Commitments refer to the public and publicly guar- donor members of OAPEC are Algeria, Iraq, anteed loans for which contracts were signed in Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United the year specified. Arab Emirates. ODA data for OPEC and OAPEC Interest rates, maturities, and grace periods are aver- were also obtained from the OECD. ages weighted by the amounts of loans. Interest is the major charge levied on a loan and is usually Table 19. Population growth and computed on the amount of principal drawn and projections outstanding. The maturity of a loan is the interval between the agreement date, when a loan agree- The growth rates of population are period averages ment is signed or bonds are issued, and the date of calculated from midyear populations. The sum- 280
mary measures are weighted by population in has declined to replacement level because past 1970. high growth rates will have produced an age distri- The estimates of population for mid-1982 are pri- bution with a relatively high proportion of women marily based on data from the UN Population Divi- in, or still to enter, the reproductive ages. Consesion. In many cases the data take into account the quently, the birth rate will remain higher than the results of recent population censuses. death rate and the growth rate will remain positive The projections of population for 1990 and 2000, for several decades. A population takes 50-75 and to the year in which it will eventually become years, depending on the initial conditions, before stationary, were made for each economy sepa- its age distribution fully adjusts to the changed rately. Starting with information on total popula- fertility rates. tion by age and sex, fertility rates, mortality rates, To make the projections, assumptions about and international migration rates in the base year future mortality rates were made in terms of 1980, these parameters were projected at five-year female life expectancy at birth (that is, the number intervals on the basis of generalized assumptions of years a newborn girl would live if subject to the until the population became stationary. The base- mortality risks prevailing for the cross-section of year estimates are from updated computer print- population at the time of her birth). Economies outs of the UN World Population Prospects as Assessed were first divided according to whether their priin 1982, from the most recent issues of the UN mary-school enrollment ratio for females was Population and Vital Statistics Report and International above or below 70 percent. In each group a set of Migration: Levels and Trends, and from the World annual increments in female life expectancy was Bank, the Population Council, the US Bureau of assumed, depending on the female life expectancy the Census, and recent national censuses. in 1980-85. For a given life expectancy at birth, the The net reproduction rate (NRR) indicates the annual increments during the projection period are number of daughters that a newborn girl will bear larger in economies having a higher primaryduring her lifetime, assuming fixed age-specific school enrollment ratio and a life expectancy of up fertility rates and a fixed set of mortality rates. The to 62.5 years. At higher life expectancies, the incre- NRR thus measures the extent to which a cohort of ments are the same. newborn girls will reproduce themselves under To project the fertility rates, the first step was to given schedules of fertility and mortality. An NRR estimate the year in which fertility would reach of 1 indicates that fertility is at replacement level: replacement level. These estimates are speculative at this rate childbearing women, on the average, and are based on information on trends in crude bear only enough daughters to replace themselves birth rates (defined in the note for Table 20), total in the population. fertility rates (also defined in the note for Table 20), A stationary population is one in which age- and female life expectancy at birth, and the performsex-specific mortality rates have not changed over ance of family planning programs. For most econoa long period, while age-specific fertility rates have mies it was assumed that the total fertility rate simultaneously remained at replacement level would decline between 1980 and the year of reach- (NRR=1). In such a population, the birth rate is ing a net reproduction rate of 1, after which fertilconstant and equal to the death rate, the age struc- ity would remain at replacement level. For most ture also is constant, and the growth rate is zero. countries in sub-Saharan Africa, however, total Population momentum is the tendency for popula- fertility rates were assumed to remain constant tion growth to continue beyond the time that until 1990-95 and then to decline until replacement replacement-level fertility has been achieved; that level was reached; for a few they were assumed to is, even after NRR has reached unity. The momen- increase until 1990-95 and then to decline. Also for tum of a population in the year t is measured as a a few countries in Asia and the Middle East, the ratio of the ultimate stationary population to the rates were assumed to remain constant for some population in the year t, given the assumption that years before beginning to decline. In several indusfertility remains at replacement level from the year trial economies, fertility is already below replacet onward. In India, for example, in 1980 the popu- ment level. Because a population will not remain lation was 687 million, the ultimate stationary pop- stationary if its net reproduction rate is other than ulation assuming that NRR = 1 from 1980 onward 1, it was assumed that fertility rates in these econowas 1,195 million, and the population momentum mies would regain replacement levels in order to was 1.74. make estimates of the stationary population for A population tends to grow even after fertility them. For the sake of consistency with the other 281
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
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of rapid and painful adjustment for
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In many countries internal adjustme
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3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
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TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
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TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
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over time. The main focus of indust
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TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
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Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
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nal surplus. The resulting rise in
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Because the public sector in low-in
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developing-country creditworthiness
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themselves and, by caring for young
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fertility in a changing world is a
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nize contraceptive services. As wil
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Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
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scious control of family size, prob
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Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
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FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
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Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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largest city in 1950, will not even
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FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
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government goal is a nationwide rat
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North America's population in 2000
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IBox 4.6 Three views of population
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TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
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Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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implied by a simple division of tot
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and on farms. But the evidence on e
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get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
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youths, who are presumably able to
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saving because they come from the c
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acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Page 246 and 247: Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
Page 248 and 249: Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
Page 250 and 251: Table 10. Structure of merchandise
Page 252 and 253: Table 11. Structure of merchandise
Page 254 and 255: Table 12. Origin and destination of
Page 256 and 257: Table 13. Origin and destination of
Page 258 and 259: Table 14. Balance of payments and r
Page 260 and 261: Table 15. Flow of public and public
Page 262 and 263: Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265: Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
Page 266 and 267: Table 18. Official development assi
Page 268 and 269: Table 19. Population growth and pro
Page 270 and 271: Table 20. Demographic and fertility
Page 272 and 273: Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
Page 274 and 275: Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
Page 276 and 277: Table 23. Indicators related to lif
Page 278 and 279: Table 24. Health-related indicators
Page 280 and 281: Table 25. Education Number Number e
Page 282 and 283: Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
Page 284 and 285: Table 27. Central government curren
Page 286 and 287: Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
Page 288 and 289: Technical notes This edition of the
Page 290 and 291: difficulties in assigning subsisten
Page 292 and 293: series in national currencies are a
Page 296 and 297: estimates, the total fertility rate
Page 298 and 299: expenditure and current revenue sho
Page 300: Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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