World Development Report 1984

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Table 19. Population growth and projections _________ Average annual growth Hypothetical Assumed size of year of of population Population stationary reaching net Population (percent) (millions) population reproduction momentum 1960-70 1970-82 1980-2000 1982 1990oa 2000a (millions) rate ofl1 1980 Low-income economies 2 3.. 19. 1 7 2 269r 621,t 309r7 China andlIndia 2 3. 1 7 I3 1 725 i 1 938,i' 190,I Other low-income 2 5.. 2 6 2 9 544 i 683 ' 907' 1 Cnad 1.9 2 0 2.5 5 6 7 22 2040 1 8 2 Bangladesn 2.5 2.6 2 9 93 119 157 454 2035 1 9 3 Ethiopia 2 4 2.0 3 1 33 42 57 231 2045 1.9 4 Nepal 1.9 2.6 2.6 1 5 19 24 71 2040 1 9 5 Mai. 2 5 2.7 2.8 7 9 1 2 42 2040 1.8 6 Burma 2 2 2.2 2.4 35 43 53 115 2025 1.8 7 Zaire 2.0 3.0 3.3 31 40 55 1 72 2030 1.9 8 Malawi 2.8 3.0 3.4 7 8 12 48 2040 1.9 9 Upper Volta 2.0 2.0 2.4 7 8 1 0 35 2040 1 7 1 0 Uganda 3.0 2.7 3.4 1 4 1 7 25 89 2035 2.0 1 1 India 2.3 2.3 1 9 717 844 994 1,707 2010 1 7 1 2 Rwanda 2 6 3.4 3 6 6 7 1 1 47 2040 1 9 13 Burundi 1 4 2 2 3.0 4 5 7 27 2040 1 9 14 Tanzania 2 7 3.4 3.5 20 26 36 117 2030 2.0 1 5 Somalia 2.8 2.8 2 4 5 5 .7 23 2045 1.8 16 Haiti 1 6 1.7 1.8 5 6 7 1 4 2025 1.8 1 7 Benin 2.6 2.7 3.3 4 5 7 23 2035 2 0 1 8 Central African Rep. 1.6 2.1 2.8 2 3 4 1 3 2040 1.9 1 9 China 2.3 1.4 1 0 1,008 1,094 1,196 1,461 2000 1 7 20 Guinea 1.5 2 0 2.4 6 7 9 28 2045 1.8 21 Niger 3.4 3 3 3.3 6 8 1 1 40 2040 1 9 22 Madagascar 2 2 2.6 3 2 9 1 2 1 6 54 2035 1 9 23 Sri Lanka 2.4 1.7 1 8 1 5 1 8 21 32 2005 1 8 24 Togo 3 0 2.6 3.3 3 4 5 1 7 2035 2.0 25 Gnana 2 3 3.0 3.9 1 2 1 7 24 83 2030 2.0 26 Pakistan 2.8 3.0 2.7 87 107 140 377 2035 1 9 27 K(enya 3.2 4.0 4.4 1 8 26 40 153 2030 2 1 28 Sierra Leone 29 Afghanistan 1.7 2 2 2 0 2 5 2 4 2 3 3 1 7 4 20 5 25 1 6 76 2045 2045 1 9 1.9 30 Bhutan 1.3 2 0 2.2 1 1 2 4 2035 I.8 31 Kampuchea, Demn. 32 Lao PDP 33 Mozambique 34 Viet Nam 2 5 1 9 2.1 3.1 2.0 4.3 2.8 .. 2.6 3.4 2.5 4 13 57 4 17 70 6 24 88 19 82 171 2040 2035 2015 1.8 2.0 1.9 Middle-income economies Oil exporters Oil importers 2 6 26t.. 25. 2 4 27; 23. 22, 25. 20 1.163. S2lr 642; 1 404r 1 41 6-1 '819: 76).' 922: Lower middle-income 5 2 25 4 . 673, 816, 1 023 35 Sudan 2.2 3.2 2 9 20 25 34 112 2035 1 8 36 Mauritania 2.3 2 3 2 6 2 2 3 8 2035 1.8 37 Yemen, PUP 2 2 2.2 3.1 2 2 3 12 2040 1 9 38 Liber a 3.2 3 5 3.5 2 3 4 1 2 2030 1 8 39 Senegal 2 3 2 7 3 1 6 8 1 0 36 2040 1.9 40 Yemen Arab Rep 2.3 3.0 2.9 8 9 1 2 43 2040 1.9 41 Lesotho 2 0 2.4 2.8 1 2 2 7 2030 1.8 42 Bolvia 2 4 2.6 2.4 6 7 9 22 2030 1 8 43 Indonesia 2.1 2.3 1.9 153 1 79 212 370 2010 1 9 44 Zambia. 2.6 3.1 3 6 6 8 1 1 37 2030 2 0 45 Honduras 3.1 3.4 3 1 4 5 7 1 7 2025 2.0 46 Egypt, Arab Rep 2.5 2.5 2 0 44 52 63 114 2015 1. 8 47 El Salvador 3 4 3 0 2.6 5 6 8 1 7 2015 1 9 48 Tha land 3 1 2 4 1.9 49 57 68 il1 2010 1.8 49 Papua New Guinea 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 1 0 2030 1.8 50 Pn l;ppines 3 0 2.7 2.1 51 61 73 127 2010 1.8 51 Zimbabwe 3 6 3.2 4.4 8 1 1 16 62 2030 2 1 52 N ger a 2.5 2.6 3.5 91 119 169 618 2035 2.0 53 Morocco 2.6 2.6 2.5 20 25 31 70 2025 1.9 54 Cameroon 2.0 3.0 3 5 9 12 17 65 2035 1 9 55 Nicaragua 2.6 3 9 3 0 3 4 5 1 2 2025 2 0 56 Ivory Coast 3 7 4.9 3 7 9 1 2 1 7 58 2035 2 0 57 Guatemaia 3 0 3 1 2 6 8 1 0 1 2 25 2020 1 9 58 Congo, People's Rep 2.4 3 0 3 8 2 2 3 1 0 2025 1.9 59 Costa R ca 3 3 2 5 2.2 2 3 3 5 2005 1.9 60 Peru 2 9 2.8 2.2 1 7 21 26 49 2020 1.9 61 Dominican Rep 2 9 3.0 2.2 6 7 8 15 2010 1 9 62 J~amaica 1.4 1.5 1.4 2 3 3 4 2005 1.6 63 Ecuador 2.9 2.6 2 6 8 10 13 27 2020 1 9 64 Turkey 2.5 2.3 2.0 47 55 65 11l 2010 18 Note- For data comparability and coverage see the tecnnical notes. 2.54
Hypothetical Assumed Average annual growth size of year of of population Population stationary reaching net Population (percent) (millions) _ population reproduction momentum 1960-70 1970-82 1980-2000 1982 1990, 20001 (millions) rate ofl1 1980 65 unisia 2.0 2.3 2.3 7 8 10 19 2015 1.8 66 Colombia 3.0 1.9 1 9 27 32 38 62 2010 1 8 67 Paraguay 2.6 2.6 2.3 3 4 5 8 2010 1.9 68 Angola 2.1 2.5 2.8 8 10 13 44 2040 1.9 69 Cuba 2.1 1 1 1.0 10 11 12 15 2010 1.6 70 Korea, Dem. Rep. 2.8 2.5 2.1 19 22 27 46 2010 1.8 71 Lebanon 2.9 0.5 1.3 3 3 3 6 2005 1.6 72 Mongolia 3 0 2.9 2.4 2 2 3 5 2015 1 9 Upper middle-income 2 6. 2 3; 2 1, .190 r 588i 7i8t 73 Syrian Arab Rep. 3 2 3.5 3.5 10 13 17 42 2020 2.0 74 Jordan 3 1 2.5 3.9 3 4 6 16 2020 2.0 75 Malaysia 2 8 2 5 2 0 15 17 21 33 2005 1.8 76 Korea, Rep, of 2.6 1 7 1.4 39 45 51 70 2000 1.7 77 Panama 2.9 2.3 1.9 2 2 3 4 2005 1.8 78 ChIle 2.1 1.7 1.4 12 13 15 21 2005 1.7 79 Brazil 2 8 2 4 2 0 127 152 181 304 2010 1.8 80 Mexico 3.3 3 0 2 3 73 89 109 199 2010 1 9 81 Algeria 2.4 3.1 3.7 20 27 39 119 2025 1.9 82 Portugal 0.3 0.8 0.6 10 10 11 14 2000 1 4 83 Argentna 1.5 1.4 1 3 28 32 36 54 2010 1.5 84 Uruguay 1.0 0.4 0.7 3 3 3 4 2005 1.3 85 South Africa 2 4 2.8 3.1 30 39 52 123 2020 1.8 86 Yugoslavia 1.0 0.9 0.6 23 24 25 29 2010 1 4 87 Venezuela 3.8 3.6 2.6 17 21 26 46 2010 2 0 88 Greece 0.6 1 0 0.4 10 10 11 12 2000 1.3 89 Israel 3 5 2 5 1 6 4 5 5 8 2005 1.7 90 Hong Kong 2 5 2 4 1 4 5 6 7 8 2000 1.6 91 Singapore 2.3 1.5 1.0 3 3 3 3 2000 1.6 92 Trinidad and Tobago 2.1 0.5 1 7 1 1 2 2 2010 1.7 93 Iran, Islamic Rep. 3.4 3.1 3 1 41 53 70 159 2020 1.9 94 Iraq 3.2 3.5 3.4 14 19 26 68 2025 2 0 High-income oil exporters 42. a,0 38 1f> 24, 33, 95 Oman 2 6 4.3 2.9 1 1 2 4 2020 1.9 96 Libya 3.9 4.1 4.3 3 5 7 21 2025 2 1 97 Saud Arabia 3.5 4.8 3.7 10 14 19 62 2030 1 9 98 Kuwait 9 9 6.3 3.5 2 2 3 5 2010 2.1 99 United Arab Emirates 9 3 15.5 3.7 1 2 2 4 2015 1 6 Industrial market economies 1 1 . 0 7 0-1; 723,; 749,t 780;i iCO Ireland 0 4 1.5 1 1 4 4 4 6 2000 1 5 101 Spain 1 0 1 0 0 7 38 40 43 51 2000 1.3 102 Italy 0.7 0.4 0 1 56 57 58 57 2010 1.2 103 New Zealand 1.8 1.0 0.6 3 3 4 4 2010 1.4 104 United Kingdom 0.6 0.1 0.1 56 56 57 59 2010 1.2 105 Austria 0 5 0.1 01 8 8 8 8 2010 1 2 106 Japan 1.0 1.1 0.4 118 123 128 128 2010 1 2 107 Belg urn 0.6 0.2 0.1 10 10 10 10 2010 1.2 108 Finland 0 4 0.4 0.1 5 5 5 5 2010 1.3 109 Netheriands 1.3 0.7 0.4 14 15 15 15 2010 1.3 110 Australia 2 0 1.5 1.0 15 16 18 21 2010 1.5 111 Canada 1 8 1.2 1.0 25 27 29 33 2010 1.5 112 France 1.1 0.5 0.4 54 56 58 62 2010 1.3 113 Germany, Fed. Rep 0.9 01 -0. 1 62 61 60 54 2010 1.1 114 Denmark 0.8 0.3 0.1 5 5 5 5 2010 1.2 115 United States 1.3 1 0 0 7 232 245 259 292 2010 1.4 116 Sweden 0.7 0 3 01 8 6 9 8 2010 1.1 117 Norway 0.8 0 5 0 2 4 4 4 4 2010 1.2 118 Switzeriand 1.5 0.1 0.1 6 6 6 6 2010 1.0 East European nonmarket economies 1 1 . C 8 0 6 384, -407, 13 119 Hungary 0.3 0.3 0.1 11 11 11 12 2010 1 2 120 Romania 0.9 0.9 0.7 23 24 25 31 2000 1.3 121 Albania 2.8 2.5 1 8 3 3 4 6 2000 1.8 122 Bulgaria 0 8 0.4 0.3 9 9 10 10 2010 1.2 123 Czechoslovakia 0 5 0.6 0.4 15 16 17 20 2000 1 3 124 German Dem Rep -0 1 -0.2 0.2 17 17 17 18 2010 1.2 125 Poland 1.0 0 9 0.7 36 39 41 49 2000 1.4 126 USSR 1.2 0.9 0.7 270 288 306 377 2000 1 4 Total' 4.556 5,205 6,082 a For the assumptions uised ini tne projections see toe technical notes. b. Excludes countries with populations of less than 1 million. 255
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
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of rapid and painful adjustment for
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In many countries internal adjustme
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3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
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TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
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TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
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over time. The main focus of indust
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TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
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Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
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nal surplus. The resulting rise in
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Because the public sector in low-in
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developing-country creditworthiness
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themselves and, by caring for young
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fertility in a changing world is a
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nize contraceptive services. As wil
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Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
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scious control of family size, prob
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Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
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FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
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Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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largest city in 1950, will not even
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FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
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government goal is a nationwide rat
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North America's population in 2000
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IBox 4.6 Three views of population
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TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
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Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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implied by a simple division of tot
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and on farms. But the evidence on e
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get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
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youths, who are presumably able to
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saving because they come from the c
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acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
Page 218 and 219: Background papers Note: Source refe
Page 220 and 221: -1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
Page 222 and 223: I I
Page 224 and 225: Table 10. Structure of merchandise
Page 226 and 227: Key In each table, economies are li
Page 228 and 229: same order is used in all tables. T
Page 230 and 231: Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
Page 232 and 233: Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
Page 234 and 235: Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
Page 236 and 237: Table 3. Structure of production GD
Page 238 and 239: Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
Page 240 and 241: Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
Page 242 and 243: Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
Page 244 and 245: Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
Page 246 and 247: Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
Page 248 and 249: Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
Page 254 and 255: Table 12. Origin and destination of
Page 256 and 257: Table 13. Origin and destination of
Page 258 and 259: Table 14. Balance of payments and r
Page 260 and 261: Table 15. Flow of public and public
Page 262 and 263: Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265: Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
Page 266 and 267: Table 18. Official development assi
Page 270 and 271: Table 20. Demographic and fertility
Page 272 and 273: Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
Page 274 and 275: Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
Page 276 and 277: Table 23. Indicators related to lif
Page 278 and 279: Table 24. Health-related indicators
Page 280 and 281: Table 25. Education Number Number e
Page 282 and 283: Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
Page 284 and 285: Table 27. Central government curren
Page 286 and 287: Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
Page 288 and 289: Technical notes This edition of the
Page 290 and 291: difficulties in assigning subsisten
Page 292 and 293: series in national currencies are a
Page 294 and 295: Public loans are external obligatio
Page 296 and 297: estimates, the total fertility rate
Page 298 and 299: expenditure and current revenue sho
Page 300: Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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