Table 9. Growthi of merchandise trade Merchandise trade Average annual growth ratea (millions of dollars) (percent) Terms of trade Exports Imports Exports Imports (1980=100) 19 8 2 b 1 9 8 2 b 1960-70 1970-82c 1960-70 1970-82c 1979 1982b Low-income economies China and India Other low-income 42.6i9 t 30,321 i 12.298 1 56.205 1 33 097 i 23.108i 5- 4m 5 7 w 0 3 . 0 2 5 4 'ii 5 8'1 1 2 i108 0 7 P f 108 87,i 87'.8 1 Chad 2 Bangiadesh 3 Ethiopia 4 Nepal 5 Mali 101 769 404 46 146 132 2,300 787 252. 332 6.0 8.1 3.7 2.9 -8.6 -0.8 1.3 6.6 5.1 7.0 6 2 -0.4 -3.6 5.5 0.2 6.6 100 96 139 107 99 98 74 102 6 Burma 7 Zaire 8 Malawi 9 Upper Volta 10 Uganda 380 569 262 56 371 408 480 314 346 339 -11.6 -1.7 11.7 14.5 6.9 1.9 -5.6 5.1 9.1 -9.2 -5.6 5.4 7.6 8.1 6.2 -2.3 -12.4 1.2 6.7 -7.9 99 113 ill 113 103 86 81 106 97 74 1 1 India 1 2 Rwanda 1 3 Burundi 1 4 Tanzania 15 Somalia 8,446 90 88 480 317 14,088 286 214 1,046 378 4.7 16.0 . 3.8 2.5 4 7 2.4 .. -5.8 9.1 -0.9 8.2 6.0 2.7 2.6 11.5 -1 5 3.8 118 88 105 116 96 63 86 111 16 Haiti 17 Benin 18 Central African Rep 1 9 China 20 Guinea 380 34 106 21,875 411 525 889 91 19,009 296 5.2 9.6 . . . -4.4 2.6 7.5 4 5 5.2 -0.2 115 99 75 90 21 Niger 22 Madagascar 23 Sri Lanka 24 Togo 25 Ghana 333 433 1.015 213 873 442 522 1,771 526 705 5.9 5.4 4.6 10.5 0.1 20.8 -3.6 0.1 0.3 -4.7 12.1 4.1 -0.2 8.6 -1 5 11.0 -3.4 1.8 8.6 -4.8 112 103 126 108 136 89 80 85 112 61 26 Pakistan 27 Kenya 28 Sierra Leone 29 Afghanistan 2,403 979 111 373 5,396 1,683 298 776 9.9 7.5 2.5 2.7 4.7 -3.3 -6.6 7.1 5.4 6.5 1.9 0.7 3.9 -2.7 -2 6 8.1 119 108 121 99 93 87 84 96 30 Bhutan . .. .. 31 Kampuchea, Dem. 32 Lao PDR 33 Mozambique 34 Viet Nam 40 24 303 188 62 83 792 637.. . 6.0 -13.3 7 9 . -14.5 1 04 84 Middle-income economies Oil exporters Oil importers 329.5581t 149.540 i 180.01 8, 380 2091i 144.301 1 235.908 1 5.4 "i .44 -?I 6 7 m 2.6 -1I 3'ii 4 0 P~ 5 9 3 6 'n 7 4 ,, 3 9 ,i99 8 7",, 1 5 -i ., 91 71 1043 102 .. 85 Lower middle-income 97.855 1 I119 668 t 5 3 P' 1 6 "i 6.9 3 3 a, 96 ', 9 35 Sudan 36 Mauritania 37 Yemnen, PDR 38 Liberia 39 Senegal 499 232 580 531 477 1,285 273 1,193 477 974 2.1 53.8 . 18.5 1.4 -5 1 -0.1 0.5 -1.8 0.5 4.6 2.9 2.3 3.5 3 0 -2.4 1.3 98 101 121 110 85 97 92 89 40 Yemen Arab Rep. 41 Lesotho" 42 Bolivia 43 Indonesia 44 Zambia 44 832 22,294 1,059 1,987 496 16,859 831 9 7 3.5 2.3 -3.9 4.4 -0.5 8.1 1 9 9.7 3.8 12.3 -6.8 77 73 116 76 108 72 45 Honduras 46 Egypt, Arab Rep. 47 El Salvador 48 Thailand 49 Papua New Guinea 654 3,120 704 6.945 799 712 9,078 883 8,548 1,029.. 10.9 3.9 6.2 5.2 3.4 -0.3 2.6 9.1 11.7 -0.9 6.4 11.3 . 0 8 9.6 1.2 4.3 100 95 99 121 81 105 69 78 50 Philippines 5,010 8.229 2.3 7.9 7 2 2.1 112 83 51 Zimbabwe 52 Nigeria 53 Morocco 54 Cameroon 663 19,484 2,059 998 704 20,821 4,315 1,205 . 6 6 2.7 7.1 ... -1.6 -0.3 4.0 1 5 3.3 9.2 17 2 4 7 5.2 81 67 98 119 105 103 98 71 55 Nicaragua 56 Ivory Coast 57 Guatemala 58 Congo, People's Rep. 59 Costa Rica 406 2,235 1,120 923 872 776 2,090 1,362 970 887 9.9 8.9 9.3 6.4 9.6 1.6 2.6 5.4 1 4 4.5 10.4 10.0 7 2 -1 0 10.1 -1.3 4.6 3.3 9 1 0.1 103 119 92 74 97 64 91 71 110 88 60 Peru 61 Dominican Rep 62 Jamaica 63 Ecuador 3,230 768 726 2.341 3,787 1,256 1.372 2,189 2.1 -2.1 4.8 2.8 4.8 4.0 -3.3 -1.3 3 6 9.9 8.2 11.6 1 6 1 3 -6.1 8.6 99 83 107 70 89 82 85 98 64 Turkey 5,685 8,812 . 4.0 .. 2.0 125 89 Note: For data comparability and coverage see the technical notes. 234
Merchandise trade Average annual growth rate' (millions of dollars) (percent) Terms of trade Exports Imports Exports imports (1 980=1 00) 1 9 8 2 b 1 9 8 2 b 1960-70 1 970-82c 1960-70 1 970-82c 1979 19820 65 Tunisia 1,960 3,294 4.4 -0.1 2.3 87 79 99 66 Colombia 3,095 5,478 2.6 2.2 2.4 7.3 90 92 67 Paraguay 330 581 5.4 5.8 7.4 6.7 133 87 68 Angola 1,730 1,001 9.7 -15.8 11.5 00 74 104 69 Cuba 1,328 1,415 3.9 2.9 5.5 1.4 90 68 70 Korea, Dem. Rep. 843 899 71 Lebanon 923 3,567 15.2 1.0 5.2 3.9 96 92 72 Mongolia 37 29 Upper middle-income 231.703 i 260.541', 5 4, 7 1' 5 5, 74' 100' 96. 73 Syrian Arab Rep. 2,026 4,015 3.5 -4.0 4.1 11.3 73 107 74 Jordan 753 3,241 10.8 17.7 36 13.5 102 101 75 Malaysia 11,789 12,543 6.1 3.8 2.4 7.3 97 83 76 Korea, Rep, of 21,853 24,251 34.7 20.2 19.7 9.8 127 95 * 77 Panama 309 1,569 10.4 -7.3 10.5 -3 9 94 84 78 Cnile 3,822 3,529 0.7 9.5 4.8 1.5 120 74 79 Brazil 18,627 19,936 5.3 8.8 5.0 1 4 114 84 80 Mexico 21,006 15,042 3.4 8.6 6.4 8 7 77 106 * 81 Algeria 12,533 10,937 3.7 -0.3 -1.2 10.8 64 106 82 Portugal 4,111 9,313 9.6 14.2 83 Argentina 7,798 5,337 3.8 8.3 0.4 1.6 102 90 84 Uruguay 1,023 1,042 2.8 5.9 -3.0 1.9 119 80 85 Soutn Africad 17,597 18,956 5.4 .8.2 .101 86 Yugoslavia 10,265 13,346 7.7 8.8 .101 87 Venezuela 16,443 11,670 1.1 -7.2 4.4 9.2 67 112 88 Greece 4,297 10,023 10.8 9.4 1 0.8 4.5 98 103 89 Israel 5,017 7,960 13.6 8.8 8.7 1 7 118 93 90 Hong Kong 20,985 23,554 12.7 9.4 9.2 11.9 100 95 91 S ngapore 20,788 28,167 4.2 5.9 .102 92 Trinidad and Tobago 3,072 3,697 4.9 -6.4 3.2 -5.3 95 97 93 Iran, Islamic Rep. 16,379 11,231 12.5 -13.8 11.5 7 5 60 98 94 Iraq 11,210 21.182 5.4 -4.8 1.7 24.1 69 118 High-income oillexporters 133 379 r 76.2'11t 33 5'u -2 9 P, 10 9 .I, 19 3~ (,8 95 Oman 4,421 2.682 96 Libya 16,391 15,414 66.9 -8.1 15.6 12 9 67 105 97 Saudi Arabia 79,123 40.654 10.8 2.3 11.0 32 3 67 125 98 KLwait 16,561 8,042 5.2 -11.2 10.8 15.2 68 115 99 United Arab Emirates 16,883 9,419 56.1 2.4 5.2 23.3 73 113 Industrial market economies 1. 148 808 i 1 212 975 i 8 5'n 5" 9 5. 4 3 , 106'i 99. 100 Ireland 7,982 9.618 7.1 8.1 8.3 5.9 92 86 101 Spain 20,522 31.535 11.5 9 4 18.5 4 4 117 92 102 Italy 73,490 86,213 13.6 5.8 9.7 3.1 107 95 103 New Zealand 5,539 5,825 4.6 3.9 2.9 1 8 112 98 104 United Kingdom 97,028 99,723 4.8 6.0 5.0 3.5 102 97 105 Austria 15,685 19,557 9.6 7.0 9.6 6.1 104 99 106 Japan 138,911 131.932 17.2 8.5 13.7 3.5 125 106 107 Belgium' 52,381 58,037 10.9 4.6 10.3 4.5 104 94 108 Finland 13,132 13.387 6.8 4.7 7.0 2 4 112 100 109 Netherlands 66,322 62.583 9.9 4.5 9.5 3 1 102 103 110 Australia 22,022 24.187 6.5 3.8 7.2 5.2 103 100 111 Canada 68,499 55,091 10.0 4.0 9.1 4.3 99 94 112 France 92,629 115,645 8.2 6.1 11.0 6.2 107 98 113 Germany, Fed. Rep. 176,428 155,856 101 5 6 10.0 5.1 106 100 114 Denmark 15,527 17,162 7.1 4.8 8.2 2.1 107 99 .115 United States 212,275 254,884 6.0 5.6 9.8 3.8 111 107 116 Sweden 26,817 27,591 7 7 3.2 7.2 2.3 100 99 117 Norway 17,595 15,479 91 6.7 9.7 4.3 86 115 118 Switzeriand 26,024 28,670 8 5 3 9 9.0 4.3 109 112 East European nonmarket economies 160 258.' 150i004, 94,. 67 8 6 ~ 6 0. 119 Hungary 8.767 8,814 9.7 7.4 91 5.0 99 97 120 Romania 11.714 9,836 9 4 .. 8.8 121 Albania 267 246 . . 122 Bulgania 1.969 2,281 14.4 11.4 12.9 7.8 123 Czechoslovakia 15,637 15,403 6.7 6.1 7.0 4.3 124 German Dem Rep. 21,743 20,196 8.3 .. 8.6 125 Poland 13.249 15,476 -0.3 6.7 -0.4 6.0 99 126 USSR 86.912 77,752 9.7 5.6 7.1 8.3 a. See the technical notes. b. Figures in italics are for 1 981, not 1982. c. Figures in italics are for 1 970-81, not 1970-82. d Figures are for the South African Customs Union comnprising South Africa, Nam bia, Lesotho, Botswana, and Swaziland. Trade between the component terr tor es is excluded e. Includes Luxembourg. 235
- Page 1:
Public Disclosure Authorized Public
- Page 4 and 5:
Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
- Page 6 and 7:
labor markets. And they have a vest
- Page 8 and 9:
8 The policy agenda 155 Population
- Page 10 and 11:
Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
- Page 12 and 13:
Glossary Demographic terms informat
- Page 14 and 15:
I I
- Page 16 and 17:
countries regain their momentum of
- Page 18 and 19:
4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
- Page 20 and 21:
example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
- Page 22 and 23:
ment-all the more so if human skill
- Page 24 and 25:
etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
- Page 26 and 27:
FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
- Page 28 and 29:
14 Distribution of product among se
- Page 30 and 31:
TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
- Page 32 and 33:
export restraints and orderly marke
- Page 34 and 35:
Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
- Page 36 and 37:
TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
- Page 38 and 39:
TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
- Page 40 and 41:
Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
- Page 42 and 43:
TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
- Page 44 and 45:
of rapid and painful adjustment for
- Page 46 and 47:
In many countries internal adjustme
- Page 48 and 49:
3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
- Page 50 and 51:
TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
- Page 52 and 53:
TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
- Page 54 and 55:
over time. The main focus of indust
- Page 56 and 57:
TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
- Page 58 and 59:
Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
- Page 60 and 61:
nal surplus. The resulting rise in
- Page 62 and 63:
Because the public sector in low-in
- Page 64 and 65:
developing-country creditworthiness
- Page 66 and 67:
themselves and, by caring for young
- Page 68 and 69:
fertility in a changing world is a
- Page 70 and 71:
nize contraceptive services. As wil
- Page 72 and 73:
Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
- Page 74 and 75:
scious control of family size, prob
- Page 76 and 77:
Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
- Page 78 and 79:
FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
- Page 80 and 81:
Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
- Page 82 and 83:
largest city in 1950, will not even
- Page 84 and 85:
FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
- Page 86 and 87:
government goal is a nationwide rat
- Page 88 and 89:
North America's population in 2000
- Page 90 and 91:
IBox 4.6 Three views of population
- Page 92 and 93:
TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
- Page 94 and 95:
Box 5.1 Consequences of population
- Page 96 and 97:
implied by a simple division of tot
- Page 98 and 99:
and on farms. But the evidence on e
- Page 100 and 101:
get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
- Page 102 and 103:
youths, who are presumably able to
- Page 104 and 105:
saving because they come from the c
- Page 106 and 107:
acre increased from 15.4 million to
- Page 108 and 109:
food they need. Although the amount
- Page 110 and 111:
is so scarce, they can do so only o
- Page 112 and 113:
from rural to urban areas mainly re
- Page 114 and 115:
other developing countries suggests
- Page 116 and 117:
emigration by providing information
- Page 118 and 119:
Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
- Page 120 and 121:
6 Slowing population growth Experie
- Page 122 and 123:
feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
- Page 124 and 125:
the education of mothers increases
- Page 126 and 127:
etter education and health services
- Page 128 and 129:
TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
- Page 130 and 131:
effectiveness of existing laws, ins
- Page 132 and 133:
in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
- Page 134 and 135:
FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
- Page 136 and 137:
Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
- Page 138 and 139:
few births; to encourage spacing, T
- Page 140 and 141:
Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
- Page 142 and 143:
Box"7.1 Family planning for health
- Page 144 and 145:
FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
- Page 146 and 147:
132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
- Page 148 and 149:
TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
- Page 150 and 151:
TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
- Page 152 and 153:
may be delaying a first pregnancy,
- Page 154 and 155:
family planning and maternal and ch
- Page 156 and 157:
clients may develop can be promptly
- Page 158 and 159:
Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
- Page 160 and 161:
medical examination was not always
- Page 162 and 163:
measuring social acceptability, or
- Page 164 and 165:
Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
- Page 166 and 167:
costs per user. Public cost per use
- Page 168 and 169:
sanguine, however, as soon as one t
- Page 170 and 171:
TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
- Page 172 and 173:
Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
- Page 174 and 175:
FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
- Page 176 and 177:
improving the availability of famil
- Page 178 and 179:
Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
- Page 180 and 181:
Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
- Page 182 and 183:
FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
- Page 184 and 185:
growth. Fertility has declined in t
- Page 186 and 187:
Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
- Page 188 and 189:
FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
- Page 190 and 191:
able several types of condoms, pill
- Page 192 and 193:
housing schemes to parents with onl
- Page 194 and 195:
and training, data collection and a
- Page 196 and 197:
9 Ten years of experience Much that
- Page 198 and 199: ecause few effective methods are of
- Page 200 and 201: Population data supplement The six
- Page 202 and 203: Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
- Page 204 and 205: 190 Births and total fertility =Ice
- Page 206 and 207: Table 1. Population projections Rat
- Page 208 and 209: Table 2. Population composition Low
- Page 210 and 211: Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
- Page 212 and 213: Table 5. Status of women Number enr
- Page 214 and 215: Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
- Page 216 and 217: Bibliographical note This Report ha
- Page 218 and 219: Background papers Note: Source refe
- Page 220 and 221: -1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
- Page 222 and 223: I I
- Page 224 and 225: Table 10. Structure of merchandise
- Page 226 and 227: Key In each table, economies are li
- Page 228 and 229: same order is used in all tables. T
- Page 230 and 231: Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
- Page 232 and 233: Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
- Page 234 and 235: Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
- Page 236 and 237: Table 3. Structure of production GD
- Page 238 and 239: Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
- Page 240 and 241: Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
- Page 242 and 243: Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
- Page 244 and 245: Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
- Page 246 and 247: Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
- Page 250 and 251: Table 10. Structure of merchandise
- Page 252 and 253: Table 11. Structure of merchandise
- Page 254 and 255: Table 12. Origin and destination of
- Page 256 and 257: Table 13. Origin and destination of
- Page 258 and 259: Table 14. Balance of payments and r
- Page 260 and 261: Table 15. Flow of public and public
- Page 262 and 263: Table 16. External public debt and
- Page 264 and 265: Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
- Page 266 and 267: Table 18. Official development assi
- Page 268 and 269: Table 19. Population growth and pro
- Page 270 and 271: Table 20. Demographic and fertility
- Page 272 and 273: Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
- Page 274 and 275: Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
- Page 276 and 277: Table 23. Indicators related to lif
- Page 278 and 279: Table 24. Health-related indicators
- Page 280 and 281: Table 25. Education Number Number e
- Page 282 and 283: Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
- Page 284 and 285: Table 27. Central government curren
- Page 286 and 287: Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
- Page 288 and 289: Technical notes This edition of the
- Page 290 and 291: difficulties in assigning subsisten
- Page 292 and 293: series in national currencies are a
- Page 294 and 295: Public loans are external obligatio
- Page 296 and 297: estimates, the total fertility rate
- Page 298 and 299:
expenditure and current revenue sho
- Page 300:
Bibliography of data sources Nation