World Development Report 1984

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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate compared tality and fertility give only a rough guide to what with rates today. For some countries, the declines is possible. For some countries, they may be too imply eventual large differences in population size ambitious; others have already set even more compared with the standard projection-for ambitious fertility targets. In the longer run, some Kenya, about 70 million rather than 120 million in countries may wish to move to even lower or zero 2050 (compared with a population of 18 million rates of population growth. But the alternative today) and for Bangladesh, 230 million rather than paths illustrate an important point: the course of almost 360 million (compared with 93 million future population growth and its effects on social today). and economic progress are well within the realm of These alternative paths of rapid declines in mor- conscious human choice.
Part I Recovery or Relapse in the <strong>World</strong> Economy? 2 Recession in retrospect The world has now had two major recessions in also more severely affected. Their GDP grew by the past ten years. The recession of 1974-75 was only 2.5 percent in 1980, 2.4 percent in 1981, 1.9 sharp but short in industrial countries, where GDP percent in 1982, and an estimated 1 percent in 1983 rose by 6.1 percent in 1973, then by only 0.8 per- (see Table 2.1 and Figure 2.1). They had fared betcent in 1974, before falling by 0.4 percent in 1975. ter in the first recession not only because it was In 1976, however, GDP growth in industrial coun- shorter but also because, for a time, their heavy tries was back up to 4.7 percent. Developing coun- borrowing allowed them to grow. In the second tries were less badly affected. Their GDP growth recession, however, the availability of foreign capiwas 7.4 percent in 1973 and 5.9 percent in 1974; it tal declined abruptly after 1981. This change fell only modestly to 4 percent in 1975 before rising imposed substantial pressure on those countries to 6.3 percent in 1976. which had come to rely on foreign loans as a prin- The recent recession of 1980-83 was not so sharp cipal way of escaping recession. but it lasted longer. In the industrial countries GDP The recent recession had two proximate causes: grew by 3.3 percent in 1979, then 1.3 percent in the rise in oil prices in 1979, stemming from supply 1980, and 1.3 percent in 1981. It fell by 0.5 percent disruptions in Iran, and the disinflationary policies in 1982 and is estimated to have risen to only about of governments in most major industrial countries 2.3 percent in 1983. The developing countries were after 1980. Both the need to reduce inflation and TABLE 2.1 Population, GDP, and GDP per capita in 1980, and growth rates, 1960-83 9D 1980 GD8p GDP growth rates (billions population per capita (average annual percentage change) Countrygroup of dollars) (millions) (dollars) 1960-73 1973-79 1980 1981 1982 1983 Developing countriesb 2,118 3,280 650 6.3 5.2 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.0 Low-income 549 2,175 250 5.6 4.8 5.9 4.8 5.2 4.7 Asia 497 1,971 250 5.9 5.2 6.3 5.2 5.6 5.1 China 284 980 290 8.5 5.7 6.1 4.8 7.3 5.1 India 162 675 240 3.6 4.3 6.9 5.7 2.9 5.4 Africa 52 204 250 3.5 2.1 1.3 1.2 0.5 -0.1 Middle-income oil importers 915 611 1,500 6.3 5.6 4.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 East Asia and Pacific Mliddle East and North 204 183 1,110 8.2 8.6 3.6 6.7 4.2 6.4 Africa 28 35 800 5.2 3.0 4.2 -2.4 5.5 2.0 Sub-Saharan Africac 37 60 610 5.6 3.7 5.5 3.9 1.1 0.3 Southern Europe 201 91 2,210 6.7 5.0 1.5 2.3 0.7 -0.9 Latin America and Caribbean 445 241 1,840 5.6 5.0 5.8 -2.3 -0.4 -2.2 Middle-income oil exporters 5 654 494 1,320 6.9 4.9 -2.4 2.4 0.9 - 1.7 High-income oil exporters 228 16 14,250 10.7 7.7 7.4 0.0 .. Industrial market economies 7,463 715 10,440 4.9 2.8 1.3 1.3 -0.5 2.3 . . Not available. a. Estimated. b. Data for 1982 and 1983 are based on a sample of ninety developing countries. c. Does not include South Africa. d. The estimated 1983 data exclude Angola, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and Iraq.
Page 1: Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 4 and 5: Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
Page 6 and 7: labor markets. And they have a vest
Page 8 and 9: 8 The policy agenda 155 Population
Page 10 and 11: Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 12 and 13: Glossary Demographic terms informat
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Page 16 and 17: countries regain their momentum of
Page 18 and 19: 4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 20 and 21: example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23: ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 26 and 27: FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29: 14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31: TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33: export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
Page 68 and 69: fertility in a changing world is a
Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
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scious control of family size, prob
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Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
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FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
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Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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largest city in 1950, will not even
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FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
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government goal is a nationwide rat
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North America's population in 2000
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IBox 4.6 Three views of population
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TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
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Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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implied by a simple division of tot
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and on farms. But the evidence on e
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get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
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youths, who are presumably able to
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saving because they come from the c
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acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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