World Development Report 1984

ment-all the more so if human skills are scarce slowing population growth later more difficult, as
and technology limited. But if consumption is low today's children become tomorrow's new parents.
already, the resources available for investment are Population policy has a long lead time; other
limited; faster population growth makes invest- development policies must adapt in the meantime.
ment in "population quality" more difficult. Sec- Inaction today forecloses options tomorrow, in
ond, in many countries increases in population overall development strategy and in future poputhreaten
what is already a precarious balance lation policy. Worst of all, inaction today could
between natural resources and people. Where mean that more drastic steps, less compatible with
populations are still highly dependent on agricul- individual choice and freedom, will seem necesture
and the potential for increasing production sary tomorrow to slow population growth.
through extending cultivation is limited, continu- 0 There are appropriate public policies to reduce fering
large increases in population condemn many tility. Proposals for reducing population growth
households to continuing poverty. Such increases raise difficult questions about the proper domain
can contribute to overuse of limited natural of public policy. Family and fertility are areas of life
resources, mortgaging the welfare of future gener- in which the most fundamental human values are
ations. Third, rapid increases in population make at stake. This Report considers two reasons for
it hard to manage the adjustments that accompany public policy to reduce fertility. First, in the transiand
promote economic and social change. The tion from a traditional to a modern economy, the
growth of cities in developing countries, largely private gain from having many children may
due to high rates of natural increase, poses serious exceed the social gain. This gap occurs for several
management problems; so too does continued reasons. For any family there are obvious rewards
rapid growth that in some rural areas threatens from many children. But poor parents especially
permanent environmental damage. have other reasons for high fertility. They rightly
These costs of rapid population growth differ fear the risks of infant mortality because, in the
among countries. Where education levels are absence of pensions or public support, they look to
already high, investment in transport and commu- their children to support them in old age. For
nications is in place, and political and economic women who are poor and for whom other opporsystems
are stable, countries are in a better posi- tunities may be limited, security and status are
tion to cope with the strains of rapid growth- linked to childbearing. Yet these private rewards
whether their natural resources are limited or they are achieved at great social cost because part of the
are already "crowded." But countries in that cate- responsibilities for educating and employing chilgory-Colombia,
the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, dren falls on society at large. Second, during a
Singapore, and Thailand-also tend to be those in country's transition to a modern economy, some
which population growth is already declining. In couples have more children than they want. This
countries where the population is still largely gap also occurs for several reasons. Information
dependent on agriculture, and the amount of new about family planning may be scarce or the costs of
land or other resources is limited-including contraception high. Couples may not realize that
Bangladesh, Burundi, the Arab Republic of Egypt, mortality rates are falling, so that fewer births are
India, Kenya, and Nepal-progress in the face of needed to ensure that the number of children they
continuing rapid population growth will be want will survive to become adults. Couples may
extraordinarily difficult. Agricultural moderniza- not be fully aware of the health risks of large famition
and diversification into manufacturing will lies. Where young women marry early, couples do
require large new investments in both human and not discuss sexual matters, and parents pressure
physical capital, and considerable administrative new couples to have children, there may be social
and political skill to ensure efficient allocation of as well as financial costs in controlling fertility.
scarce investment resources. Even in countries Thus tradition can combine with lack of inforwith
untapped natural resources-Brazil and Ivory mation about birth control to contribute to high
Coast, for instance-rapid population growth fertility.
makes it harder to effect the investments in com- Where there is a gap between private and social
plementary inputs (roads, public services, drain- gains, a main reason for it is poverty. Poverty
age, and other agricultural infrastructure) and in means not only low income but also lack of ecothe
human skills needed to tap such resources. nomic and social opportunities, an insecure future,
The costs of rapid population growth, moreover, and limited access to services such as education,
are cumulative. More births now make the task of health, and family planning. The gap requires
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