World Development Report 1984

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Background papers Note: Source references to these papers carry the publication year 1984. * An asterisk after a citation indicates a background paper that will be published in a volume provisionally entitled "Perspectives on the Global Economy." t A dagger after a citation indicates a background paper that is forthcoming as a World Bank Staff Working Paper. Ainsworth, Martha. "Family Planning Programs: The Client's Perspective." In Ainsworth and Jones. Ainsworth, Martha, and Huw Jones. "Family Planning Programs: Client and Management Perspectives.' Birdsall, Nancy, ed. "Three Cross-country Analyses of the Effects of Organized Family Planning Programs on Fertility.' Boulier, Bryan. a. "Family Planning Programs and Contraceptive Availability: Their Effects on Contraceptive Use and Fertility." In Birdsall, ed. Boulier, Bryan. b. "Unmet Need for Contraception: Evaluation of Measures and Estimates for Thirty-six Developing Countries. "' Bulatao, Rodolfo A. a. "Expenditures on Population Programs in Major Regions of the Developing World: Current Levels and Future Requirements. "t Bulatao, Rodolfo A. b. "Reducing Fertility in Developing Countries: A Review of Determinants and Policy Levers.' Bulatao, Rodolfo A., and Ann Elwan, "Fertility and Mortality Transition in Developing Countries: Patterns, Projections, and Interdependence."t Cain, Mead. "On Women's Status, Family Structure, and Fertility in Developing Countries."t DaVanzo, Julie, and others. "Quantitative Studies of Mortality Decline in the Developing World."t DaVanzo, Julie, and Jean-Pierre Habicht. "What Accounts for the Decline in Infant Mortality in Peninsular Malavsia, 1946-75?" In DaVanzo and others. Denton, Hazel. "The Declining Growth Rates of the Population of Eastern Europe."' Gendell, Murray. "Factors Underlying Stalled Fertility in Developing Countries."t Gwatkin, Davidson. "Mortality Reduction, Fertility Decline, and Population Growth.' Haberler, Gottfried. "The Slowdown of the World Economy and the Problem of Stagflation: Some Alternative Explanations and Policy Implications.- Hakim, Leonardo, and Christine Wallich. "OECD Deficits, Debts, and Savings: Structure and Trends, 1965-80. * Hammer, Jeffrey S. "Population Growth and Savings in Developing Countries."t Herz, Barbara. "Official Development Assistance for Population." t Hill, Ken. "The Pace of Mortality Decline since 1950.'" In DaVanzo and others. Jones, Huw. "National Family Planning Programs: A Management Perspective." In Ainsworth and Jones. Kamin, Steve. "New Poverty Projections for the Developing Countries." Kindleberger, Charles. "Historical Perspective on Today's Third-World Debt Problem."t King, Timothy, and Robin Zeitz. "Taking Thought for the Morrow: Prospects and Policies for Aging Populations." t Kirchner, J. W., and others. "Two Essays on Population and Carrying Capacity." t "Carrying Capacity, Population Growth, and Sustainable Development." In Kirchner and others. Lal, Deepak, and Martin Wolf. "Debt, Deficits, and Distortions: Problems of the Global Economy.- Lal, Deepak, and Sweder van Wijnbergen. "Government Deficits, the Real Interest Rate, and LDC Debt: On Global Crowding Out.'- Lapham, Robert J., and W. Parker Mauldin. "Conditions of Fertility Decline in Developing Countries, 1965-80." In Birdsall, ed. Lawrence, Robert. "Systemic Risk and Developing Country Debt.` Lluch, Constantino. "Investment Cycles, Saving, and Output Growth." Maddison, Angus. "Developing Countries in the 1930s: Possible Lessons for the 1980s.'* Mahar, Dennis. "The Settlement of Tropical Frontiers: Some Lessons from Brazil and Indonesia."t McGreevey, William. "Economic Aspects of Historical Demographic Change."' McNicoll, Geoffrey. "Consequences of Rapid Population Growth: An Overview and Assessment."t Merrick, Thomas W. "Recent Fertility Declines in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico."' Muscat, Robert. "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences." In Kirchner and others. Porter, Ian. "Population Growth and Agricultural Transitions."t Prescott, Nicholas. "Financing Family Planning Programs." t Preston, Samuel H. "Mortality and Development Revisited." In DaVanzo and others. Sanderson, Warren C., and Jeffrey G. Williamson. "How Should the Developing Countries Adjust to External Shocks in the 1980s? Looking at Some World Bank Macromodels." t Sapir, Andre. "Some Aspects of Population Growth, Trade, and Factor Mobility."t Sjaastad, Lawrence, Aquiles Almansi, and Carlos Hurtado. "The Debt Crisis in Latin America.- Standing, Guy. "Population Mobility and Productive Relations: Demographic Links and the Evolution of Policy.' Swamy, Gurushri. "Population, International Migration, and Trade."t Tan, Jee-Peng, and Michael Haines. "Schooling and Demand for Children: Historical Perspectives." t Trussell, James, and Anne R. Pebley. "The Impact of Family Planning Programs on Infant, Child, and Maternal Mortality. "t Wheeler, David. "Female Education, Family Planning, Income, and Population: A Long-run Econometric Simulation Model." In Birdsall, ed. Zachariah, K. C. "Determinants of Fertility Decline in India."t 204
Selected bibliography Ascadi, George T., and Gwendolyn Johnson-Ascadi. 1983. "Demand for Children and Spacing in Sub-Saharan Africa." Background paper for the "Report on Population Strategies for Sub-Saharan Africa." Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Atkinson, Linda, and others. 1980. "Prospects for Improved Contraception." Family Planning Perspectives 12, 4. Becker, Gary S. 1980. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility." In Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries. Universities-National Bureau Conference Series, no. 11. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. Bhatia, Shushum, and others. 1980. "The Matlab Family Planning-Health Services Project." Studies in Family Planning 11, 6. Birdsall, Nancy. 1980. "Population Growth and Poverty in the Developing World." Population Bulletin 35, 5. (Also available as World Bank Staff Working Paper no. 404, 1980.) Bongaarts, John. 1978. "A Framework for Analyzing the Proximate Determinants of Fertility." Population and Development Review 4:105-32. Bongaarts, J., and R. G. Potter. 1983. Fertility, Biology and Behavior: An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants. New York: Academic Press. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. 1981. "Values and Disvalues of Children in Successive Childbearing Decisions." Demography 18:1-25. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., and Ronald D. Lee, eds. 1983. Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries. 2 vols. New York: Academic Press. Cassen, Robert H. 1978. India. New York: Holmes and Meier. Casterline, John B., and others. 1983. "The Proximate Determinants of Fertility." Unpublished paper. World Fertility Survey, London. Chen, L. C., and others. "Maternal Mortality in Rural Bangladesh. " In Studies in Family Planning 5, 11:334-41, November 1974. Coale, Ansley, and Susan Watkins, eds. 1984. The Decline of Fertility in Europe. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. Cochrane, Susan H. 1983. "Effects of Education and Urbanization on Fertility." In Rodolfo A. Bulatao and Ronald D. Lee, eds., Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries. New York: Academic Press. Cochrane, Susan H., Donald J. O'Hara, and Joanne Leslie. 1980. "The Effects of Education on Health." World Bank Staff Working Paper no. 405. Washington, D.C. Deevey, Edward. 1960. "The Human Population. " Scientific American 203, 3:195-204. Demeny, Paul. 1984. "A Perspective on Long-term Population Growth." Center for Policy Studies Working Paper no. 104. New York: The Population Council. Durand, John D. 1977. "Historical Estimates of World Population: An Evaluation." Population and Development Review 3, 3:253-96. Easterlin, Richard, A. 1975. "An Economic Framework for Fertility Analysis." Studies in Family Planning 6:54-63. Easterlin, Richard, A., ed. 1980. Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries. Chicago, Ill.: University of Chicago Press. Faruqee, Rashid, and Ravi Gulhati. 1983. "Rapid Population Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Issues and Policies." World Bank Staff Working Paper no. 559. Washington, D.C. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 1981. Agriculture: Toward 2000. Economic and Social Development Series no. 23. Rome. -1981. FAO Production Yearbook 35. Rome. Frank, Odile. 1983. "Infertility in Sub-Saharan Africa." Center for Policy Studies Working Paper no. 97. New York: The Population Council. Freedman, Ronald. 1979. "Theories of Fertility Decline: A Reappraisal." Social Forces 58, 1:1-17. Gilland, Bernard. 1983. "Considerations on World Population and Food Supply." Population and Development Review 9, 2:203-11. Habbakuk, H., and M. Postan. 1965. The Cambridge Economic History of Europe 6. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Henry, Alice, and Phyllis T. Piotrow. 1979. "Age at Marriage and Fertility." Population Reports, Series M, no. 4. * Higgins, G. M., and others. 1982. Potential Population Supporting Capacities of Lands in the Developing World. Rome: FAO. Ho, Teresa J. 1979. "Time Costs of Child Rearing in the Rural Philippines." Population and Development Review 5:643-62. Jacobsen, Judith. 1983. "Promoting Population Stabilization: Incentives for Small Families." Worldwatch Paper 54. Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute. Johansson, E. 1977. "The History of Literacy in Sweden in Comparison with Some Other Countries. " Educational Reports Umea, 12. Johnston, Bruce F., and William C. Clark. 1982. Redesigning Rural Development: A Strategic Perspective. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press. Johnston, Bruce F., and Peter Kilby. 1975. Agriculture and Structural Transformation. New York: Oxford University Press. Keyfitz, N., and W. Flieger. 1968. World Population: An Analysis of Data. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Kindleberger, Charles. 1973. World in Recession. Berkeley: University of California Press. King, Timothy, and others. 1974. Population Policies and Economic Development. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press. Lal, Deepak. 1983. The Poverty of "Development Economics." Hobart Paperback 16. London: Institute of Economic Affairs. Lindert, Peter H. 1983. "The Changing Economic Costs and Benefits of Having Children." In Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries. Rodolfo A. Bulatao and Ronald D. Lee, eds. New York: Academic Press. 205
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
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of rapid and painful adjustment for
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In many countries internal adjustme
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3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
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TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
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TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
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over time. The main focus of indust
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TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
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Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
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nal surplus. The resulting rise in
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Because the public sector in low-in
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developing-country creditworthiness
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themselves and, by caring for young
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fertility in a changing world is a
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nize contraceptive services. As wil
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Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
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scious control of family size, prob
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Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
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FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
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Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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largest city in 1950, will not even
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FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
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government goal is a nationwide rat
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North America's population in 2000
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IBox 4.6 Three views of population
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TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
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Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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implied by a simple division of tot
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and on farms. But the evidence on e
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get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
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youths, who are presumably able to
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saving because they come from the c
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acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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Page 170 and 171: TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
Page 172 and 173: Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
Page 174 and 175: FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
Page 176 and 177: improving the availability of famil
Page 178 and 179: Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
Page 180 and 181: Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
Page 182 and 183: FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
Page 184 and 185: growth. Fertility has declined in t
Page 186 and 187: Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
Page 188 and 189: FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
Page 190 and 191: able several types of condoms, pill
Page 192 and 193: housing schemes to parents with onl
Page 194 and 195: and training, data collection and a
Page 196 and 197: 9 Ten years of experience Much that
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Page 200 and 201: Population data supplement The six
Page 202 and 203: Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
Page 204 and 205: 190 Births and total fertility =Ice
Page 206 and 207: Table 1. Population projections Rat
Page 208 and 209: Table 2. Population composition Low
Page 210 and 211: Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
Page 212 and 213: Table 5. Status of women Number enr
Page 214 and 215: Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
Page 216 and 217: Bibliographical note This Report ha
Page 220 and 221: -1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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Page 224 and 225: Table 10. Structure of merchandise
Page 226 and 227: Key In each table, economies are li
Page 228 and 229: same order is used in all tables. T
Page 230 and 231: Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
Page 232 and 233: Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
Page 234 and 235: Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
Page 236 and 237: Table 3. Structure of production GD
Page 238 and 239: Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
Page 240 and 241: Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
Page 242 and 243: Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
Page 244 and 245: Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
Page 246 and 247: Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
Page 248 and 249: Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
Page 254 and 255: Table 12. Origin and destination of
Page 256 and 257: Table 13. Origin and destination of
Page 258 and 259: Table 14. Balance of payments and r
Page 260 and 261: Table 15. Flow of public and public
Page 262 and 263: Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265: Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
Page 266 and 267: Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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