World Development Report 1984

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Bibliographical note This Report has drawn on a wide range of World Bank documents and Sub-Saharan Africa: Progress Bank work as well as on numerous outside Report on Development Prospects and Programs. sources. World Bank sources include ongoing eco- Quantitative analysis of the link between budget nomic analysis and research, as well as project, deficits in industrial countries and global "crowdsector, and economic work on individual coun- ing out" is in Lal and van Wijnbergen. Alternative tries. Outside sources include research publica- views on macroeconomic stabilization are surtions and the unpublished reports of other veyed in Haberler. For a review of public expendiorganizations working on global economic and tures and budget deficits in OECD countries, see population and development programs and Hakim and Wallich. issues. Selected sources are briefly noted by chap- Box 2.1 comparing the 1930s to the present ter below and listed alphabetically by author in draws on Maddison. Box 2.2 on protection in two groups. The first includes background papers industrial countries is based on UNCTAD data. commissioned for this Report; these reports syn- The analysis for Box 2.3 is in Mitra. Box 2.4 and thesize relevant literature and Bank work. Most Box 3.3 are based on Bank macroeconomic modelinclude extensive bibliographies; the sources cited ing work summarized in Sanderson and Williamin these papers are not listed separately. Those son. Box 2.5 on Latin American debt problems issued as World Bank Staff Working Papers are made use of the background papers by Sjaastad available from the Bank's Publications Sales Unit. and others, and by Lawrence. Box 3.1 is based on The views they express are not necessarily those of Wolf and others. Box 3.2 on the engine of growth is the World Bank or of this Report. The second based on Riedel and on Lal. Box 3.3 is based on Lal group consists of selected other sources used in and unpublished work by Srinivasan. The discusthe preparation of this Report. sion of IDA lending in Box 3.4 draws on the Bank report IDA in Retrospect. Selected sources, by chapter Chapter 4 Chapter 1 The description of the setting for high fertility is from Birdsall (1980). For additional sources and and, for this century, United Nations data to 1950 evidence on the advantages of children in poor and World Bank data thereafter Historical data on andcor Ban dataewed theMcGreafter. Historicalpdaa oThe communities, see Cain. historical discussion is based on sources income areviewe are in McGreevey . cited in Cassen and in McGreevey. The discussion of present trends is based primarily on World Bank Chapters 2 and 3 and United Nations data. Mortality trends are. analyzed in Hill; Preston; and Bulatao and Elwan. Data used in these chapters draw on GATT, IMF, Work on causes of mortality decline includes OECD, and UNCTAD publications as well as DaVanzo and Habicht; and Cochrane and others. - World Bank data. For analysis of the extent and The stall in fertility decline in selected countries is effects of labor market rigidities in the economic analyzed in Gendell. The evidence on internaperformance of OECD countries; the causes of the tional migration is surveyed in Swamy. productivity slowdown; and the effects of protec- Box 4.1 on the isolation paradox draws on the tion, see Lal and Wolf. The discussion of debt writings of Sen and of Cassen. Box 4.2 was assemproblems is based on papers by Kindleberger, bled with the help of Peter Lindert and members of Lawrence, and by Sjaastad and others. The discus- the Graduate Group in Demography at the Unision of the problems faced by developing countries versity of California, Berkeley and Davis. Box 4.3 in a volatile world economy is based on internal draws on data assembled by the European Fertility 202
Transition project at Princeton University, which China, on Jacobsen, and on the 1974 World Bank resulted in the book edited by Coale and Watkins. publication by King and others. Boxes in this chapter discuss articles by Stokes and Schutjer (Box 6.1), Chapter 5 Ho (Box 6.2), Lindert, and Bulatao, 1981 (Box 6.3). The literature on macroeconomic effects of popula- Chapter 7 tion growth, including effects on income distribution, is surveyed and reviewed in McNicoll. On On contraceptive use and unmet need see the the relation between fertility and savings, see papers by Ainsworth and by Boulier (a). Data used Hammer. Projections of schooling costs are based in this section are from World Fertility Survey and on Bank data on current costs and a projection Contraceptive Prevalence Survey data tapes premodel of The Futures Group. The structural trans- pared for this Report. Some of the information is formation discussion is based on Porter and on available in publications of the World Fertility Johnston and Kilby. The discussion of food and Survey (published by the International Statistical agriculture is based on the FAO study Agriculture: Institute, The Netherlands). Program issues- Toward 2000; Bank work on Africa; Porter; and management, access, and quality-are discussed Pingali and Binswanger. Kirchner and others ana- in Ainsworth and in Jones. Bulatao analyzes the lyze the links between population and natural costs of family planning programs. Examples resources; for related discussion, see Muscat. throughout the chapter come from World Bank Urban population growth and migration are dis- sector reports, other background papers, and cussed in Linn and in Standing. Redistribution materials furnished by the International Planned policies (including Box 5.5) are analyzed in Mahar. Parenthood Federation, the Pathfinder Fund, and Work on the international economy as it relates to the United States Agency for International population is in Sapir and in Swamy. Development. Box 5.1 discusses the works of Meadows and Box 7.1, on the health benefits of family planothers, who prepared the book ascribed to the ning, is based on Trussell and Pebley and other Club of Rome, and of Simon. The analysis used for analyses surveyed in Ainsworth. Sources for Box Box 5.2 is described in Kamin. 7.2, on contraceptive technology, include Atkinson and others; and the US Congress Office of Tech- Chapter 6 nology Assessment study. Sources for Box 7.6, on the Matlab projects, are cited in Ainsworth. Box The discussion of socioeconomic and proximate 7.7 onmltr 'xedtrsi ae nSvr determinants of fertility is based on recent an Woldtank data. reviews, including the background paper by Bulatao; the compilation of Bulatao and Lee; Chapter 8 unpublished papers produced by the Fertility P Determinants Group at Indiana University; and This chapter draws heavily on Bank operational Birdsall, 1980. Important conceptual contributions experience and sector work. The discussion of include those of Becker, Bongaarts, Easterlin, population policy uses information gathered and Freedman, and Schultz. Essential data were summarized by Lapham and Mauldin. The African obtained from the World Fertility Survey Com- section is based in part on the papers by Ascadi parative Studies series, especially the paper by and Johnson-Ascadi; and by Faruqee and Gulhati. Casterline and others. The links between fertility The background papers by Gendell, Jones, and and mortality are reviewed in Bulatao and Elwan Zachariah contributed to the section on South and in Gwatkin. Cain analyzes the link between Asia, and that of Merrick to the section on Latin the status of women and fertility. Policy recom- America. Herz summarizes information on donor mendations affecting marriage are discussed espe- assistance. cially in Henry and Piotrow and on breastfeeding Box 8.1, on pronatalist policies, is based on in McCann and others. For analyses of the effects Denton. Demographic policy objectives in Box 8.2 of family planning on fertility see Boulier; are drawn largely from official government state- Wheeler; and Lapham and Mauldin. Merrick ments and development plans. The FAO report by presents evidence on family planning and other Higgins and others is the main source for Box 8.3. factors influencing fertility for Latin America, and Studies on infertility in Africa (Box 8.4) include Zachariah presents such evidence for India. The that of Frank. Box 8.7 was prepared with help from incentives section draws on Bank sector work on Judith Bruce of The Population Council. 203
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
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of rapid and painful adjustment for
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In many countries internal adjustme
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3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
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TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
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TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
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over time. The main focus of indust
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TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
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Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
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nal surplus. The resulting rise in
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Because the public sector in low-in
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developing-country creditworthiness
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themselves and, by caring for young
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fertility in a changing world is a
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nize contraceptive services. As wil
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Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
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scious control of family size, prob
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Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
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FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
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Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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largest city in 1950, will not even
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FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
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government goal is a nationwide rat
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North America's population in 2000
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IBox 4.6 Three views of population
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TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
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Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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implied by a simple division of tot
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and on farms. But the evidence on e
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get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
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youths, who are presumably able to
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saving because they come from the c
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acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
Page 166 and 167: costs per user. Public cost per use
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Page 170 and 171: TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
Page 172 and 173: Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
Page 174 and 175: FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
Page 176 and 177: improving the availability of famil
Page 178 and 179: Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
Page 180 and 181: Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
Page 182 and 183: FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
Page 184 and 185: growth. Fertility has declined in t
Page 186 and 187: Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
Page 188 and 189: FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
Page 190 and 191: able several types of condoms, pill
Page 192 and 193: housing schemes to parents with onl
Page 194 and 195: and training, data collection and a
Page 196 and 197: 9 Ten years of experience Much that
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Page 200 and 201: Population data supplement The six
Page 202 and 203: Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
Page 204 and 205: 190 Births and total fertility =Ice
Page 206 and 207: Table 1. Population projections Rat
Page 208 and 209: Table 2. Population composition Low
Page 210 and 211: Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
Page 212 and 213: Table 5. Status of women Number enr
Page 214 and 215: Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
Page 218 and 219: Background papers Note: Source refe
Page 220 and 221: -1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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Page 224 and 225: Table 10. Structure of merchandise
Page 226 and 227: Key In each table, economies are li
Page 228 and 229: same order is used in all tables. T
Page 230 and 231: Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
Page 232 and 233: Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
Page 234 and 235: Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
Page 236 and 237: Table 3. Structure of production GD
Page 238 and 239: Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
Page 240 and 241: Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
Page 242 and 243: Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
Page 244 and 245: Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
Page 246 and 247: Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
Page 248 and 249: Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
Page 254 and 255: Table 12. Origin and destination of
Page 256 and 257: Table 13. Origin and destination of
Page 258 and 259: Table 14. Balance of payments and r
Page 260 and 261: Table 15. Flow of public and public
Page 262 and 263: Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265: Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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