World Development Report 1984

Population data supplement
The six tables and two maps in this Supplement culated by applying a schedule of age-specific ferprovide
demographic and policy-related data in tility rates, scaled to agree with the given total
addition to those presented in the World Develop- fertility rate, to the female population, classified
ment Indicators, Tables 19-25. In the tables of this by age group, for the period. These births enter -
Supplement, countries are listed in ascending the population as the youngest cohort; each cohort
order of 1982 income per capita, except for those grows older in accordance with assumed mortality
for which no GNP per capita can be calculated. conditions.
These are listed in alphabetical order, in italics, at The fertility assumptions were entered in the
the end of the per capita income group into which form of total and age-specific fertility rates, and
they probably fall. An alphabetical listing of coun- mortality assumptions in the form of expectations
tries and the reference numbers indicating this of life at birth or mortality levels based on stanorder
can be found in the key to the Indicators. dardized life tables. Migration assumptions were
Tables 1 and 3 through 6 include only low- and entered in the form of the number of net migrants
middle-income countries for which data are avail- in each five-year period by sex and age; the age
able. In Tables 3 through 6, countries with fewer distribution of migrants was obtained from a
than one million inhabitants are listed under a sep- model on the basis of their overall sex ratio. Migraarate
heading in ascending order of 1982 income tion assumptions do not vary for alternative fertilper
capita, except for those for which no GNP per ity and mortality scenarios, but for most countries
capita can be calculated. The latter are listed in net migration was assumed to reach zero by 2000.
alphabetical order, in italics, at the end of the table. The sources of data for base-year population esti-
Figures in the colored bands are summary mea- mates are discussed in the technical note to Table
sures for groups of countries. The letter w after a 19 of the World Development Indicators.
summary measure indicates that it is a weighted For the standard projection, the future path for feraverage,
the letter t that it is a total. Figures in tility is based on the experience of a group of counitalics
are for years other than, but generally tries for which a judgment regarding the future
within, two years of those specified. The symbol year of reaching replacement-level fertility could
(.) indicates less than half the unit shown, . . not be made with relative confidence. The assumed
available, and n.a. not applicable. All data are sub- year for replacement-level fertility in these counject
to the same cautions regarding reliability and tries was regressed on several predictors: the curcross-country
comparability that are noted in the rent total fertility rate for each country, the change
World Development Indicators. in this rate over the previous ten years, the proportion
of couples using contraception, and the cur-
Table 1. Population projections rent female life expectancy. On the basis of this,
regression, a year for reaching replacement-level
The population projections here as well as in Table fertility (constrained to fall between the years 2000
19 of the World Development Indicators were and 2050) was calculated for every country. (Fertilmade
on the basis of a World Bank computer pro- ity in industrial countries already below replacegram
that uses a modified cohort-component ment level was assumed to rise to replacement by
method to simulate the effects of various fertility, 2000.) For each country a curve was mathematimortality,
and migration assumptions on future cally fitted for the course of the total fertility rate
population size and age structure in successive between the current year and the year of replacefive-year
periods. Births for each period were cal- ment-level fertility. The curves were chosen to pro-
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