World Development Report 1984
World Development Report 1984
World Development Report 1984
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Population data supplement<br />
The six tables and two maps in this Supplement culated by applying a schedule of age-specific ferprovide<br />
demographic and policy-related data in tility rates, scaled to agree with the given total<br />
addition to those presented in the <strong>World</strong> Develop- fertility rate, to the female population, classified<br />
ment Indicators, Tables 19-25. In the tables of this by age group, for the period. These births enter -<br />
Supplement, countries are listed in ascending the population as the youngest cohort; each cohort<br />
order of 1982 income per capita, except for those grows older in accordance with assumed mortality<br />
for which no GNP per capita can be calculated. conditions.<br />
These are listed in alphabetical order, in italics, at The fertility assumptions were entered in the<br />
the end of the per capita income group into which form of total and age-specific fertility rates, and<br />
they probably fall. An alphabetical listing of coun- mortality assumptions in the form of expectations<br />
tries and the reference numbers indicating this of life at birth or mortality levels based on stanorder<br />
can be found in the key to the Indicators. dardized life tables. Migration assumptions were<br />
Tables 1 and 3 through 6 include only low- and entered in the form of the number of net migrants<br />
middle-income countries for which data are avail- in each five-year period by sex and age; the age<br />
able. In Tables 3 through 6, countries with fewer distribution of migrants was obtained from a<br />
than one million inhabitants are listed under a sep- model on the basis of their overall sex ratio. Migraarate<br />
heading in ascending order of 1982 income tion assumptions do not vary for alternative fertilper<br />
capita, except for those for which no GNP per ity and mortality scenarios, but for most countries<br />
capita can be calculated. The latter are listed in net migration was assumed to reach zero by 2000.<br />
alphabetical order, in italics, at the end of the table. The sources of data for base-year population esti-<br />
Figures in the colored bands are summary mea- mates are discussed in the technical note to Table<br />
sures for groups of countries. The letter w after a 19 of the <strong>World</strong> <strong>Development</strong> Indicators.<br />
summary measure indicates that it is a weighted For the standard projection, the future path for feraverage,<br />
the letter t that it is a total. Figures in tility is based on the experience of a group of counitalics<br />
are for years other than, but generally tries for which a judgment regarding the future<br />
within, two years of those specified. The symbol year of reaching replacement-level fertility could<br />
(.) indicates less than half the unit shown, . . not be made with relative confidence. The assumed<br />
available, and n.a. not applicable. All data are sub- year for replacement-level fertility in these counject<br />
to the same cautions regarding reliability and tries was regressed on several predictors: the curcross-country<br />
comparability that are noted in the rent total fertility rate for each country, the change<br />
<strong>World</strong> <strong>Development</strong> Indicators. in this rate over the previous ten years, the proportion<br />
of couples using contraception, and the cur-<br />
Table 1. Population projections rent female life expectancy. On the basis of this,<br />
regression, a year for reaching replacement-level<br />
The population projections here as well as in Table fertility (constrained to fall between the years 2000<br />
19 of the <strong>World</strong> <strong>Development</strong> Indicators were and 2050) was calculated for every country. (Fertilmade<br />
on the basis of a <strong>World</strong> Bank computer pro- ity in industrial countries already below replacegram<br />
that uses a modified cohort-component ment level was assumed to rise to replacement by<br />
method to simulate the effects of various fertility, 2000.) For each country a curve was mathematimortality,<br />
and migration assumptions on future cally fitted for the course of the total fertility rate<br />
population size and age structure in successive between the current year and the year of replacefive-year<br />
periods. Births for each period were cal- ment-level fertility. The curves were chosen to pro-<br />
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