World Development Report 1984

ecause few effective methods are offered, and which in turn means new investments just to
because follow-up services are limited. maintain per capita output. In cities, rapid popula-
It has been almost two decades since the peak of tion growth heightens the organizational and
population growth in developing countries was administrative difficulties of managing urban
passed. But the turnaround to slower growth has growth; redistribution policies offer little relief at
been slow and has not occurred everywhere. high cost.
Increases in population size are projected to mount Population growth would not be a problem if
for another two decades, and in many countries of economic and social adjustments could be made
the developing world, populations will triple in fast enough, if technical change could be guaransize
by the year 2050, even assuming substantial teed, or if rapid population growth itself inspired
declines in fertility. Two decades after the turn- technical change. But rapid population growth, if
around, the slow pace of change and its uneven anything, makes adjustment more difficult. It
incidence point more than ever to rapid population brings at best only the gradual adaptation that is
growth as a central development concern. typical of agriculture, maintaining but not increasing
per capita output. The money and research
A development problem skills needed for modern technological change are
overwhelmingly in the rich countries, where pop-
The focus of this Report has been different from ulation growth is slow. If anything they produce
neomalthusian descriptions of population as a labor-saving, not labor-using, innovations. In
problem. World population has grown faster, to today's developed countries fertility was never as
higher numbers, than Malthus would have imag- high as in developing countries now, and mortalined;
world production and income have grown ity fell more slowly. Population growth rarely
too. The future may be more difficult; in the very exceeded 1.5 percent a year; rural population
long run, history may seem to vindicate Malthus growth had virtually ended by the beginning of
and the problem of population may indeed be one the twentieth century.
of numbers outrunning world resources. But for
the next five or six decades, the problem goes Appropriate policies
beyond one of global resources and is less easily
amenable to any technological fix. It is a mismatch Part 11 of this Report dwells at length on the meanbetween
population and income-producing ability, ing and implications of a paradox. On the one
a mismatch that leaves many of the world's people hand, the social costs of large families are high,
in a vicious circle of poverty and high fertility. In and in some families children suffer directly from
this Report rapid population growth is associated, having many siblings. On the other hand, poor
at household and national levels, with slower parents make a reasonable choice in having many
progress in raising living standards, especially of children. High infant and child mortality and poor
the poor. At the national and the family level, educational and job opportunities mean that parrapid
population growth exacerbates the difficult ents with few children cannot feel secure about
choice between higher levels of living now and their own future until they have had four or five
investment, for example in children's schooling, to babies-including, in some settings, two or three
bring higher levels of living in the future. It is the sons. The very idea of planning pregnancies may
poor who have many children; caught by the pov- be unknown, and modern contraceptives may be
erty of their parents, those children carry their dis- unavailable or expensive. In such a context, each.
advantages into the next generation. Still rapid individual family's decision to have another child
population growth in most countries-2 percent to seems rational. Yet added together, these separate
more than 4 percent a year-means up to 50 per- decisions make all families, and especially chilcent
of populations are under age fifteen, so job dren, worse off in the end. There is a gap between
creation for many years will be a formidable task. the private and social gains to large families. The
For some countries and many rural families, high gap is caused in large part by poverty and the
fertility means extra resources must go into agri- resulting lack of access to opportunities that would
culture just to keep pace with food requirements. encourage small families.
In many countries still largely dependent on agri- The process of economic development itself genculture,
there is little or no unused land that can be erates new signals that lower fertility. Decisions
cheaply brought under cultivation; raising produc- change as women become more educated, as more
tion means increasing yields on existing land, children survive childhood disease, as children
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